THE objectives of the British mission to Afghanistan could take as long as 20 years to achieve, according to a confidential Ministry of Defence briefing seen by The Sunday Times.

The assessment by senior military officers highlights the risks to the 3,300 British troops to be deployed to the lawless Helmand province and warns that even in five years the best that can be hoped for in terms of security and stabilisation would be “interim status”.

The disclosure contrasts with assurances given to the Commons by John Reid, the defence secretary, that the mission will be completed in three years.

Questioned last month about the danger that British troops could end up bogged down in southern Afghanistan, Reid told MPs: “We will make our judgment on the basis of changes on the ground: extension of central government control, a reduction in insurgency, growth of the Afghan security forces and economic development.

“The exit strategy involves one of the entrance aims: the achievement of a degree of success in all those respects in a relatively short time — three years — in the south.”

However, the Ministry of Defence briefing — given to Nato allies involved in Afghanistan — reveals that it expects only an interim degree of success in five years in meeting these aims and in combating narcotics.

The “end game” is estimated to require 15 to 20 years, suggesting that British troops may be the country for far longer than acknowledged.

It is a view echoed by Colin Powell, the former American secretary of state. Last week he warned the Canadian government that its troops in southern Afghanistan should prepare for an “extended” military campaign and should not put a time limit on their stay.

He emphasised the deteriorating security, pointing out: “There are Taliban elements that want to continue the fight.” More than 1,700 people were killed in Taliban attacks last year and there has been a recent spate of suicide bombings.

Helmand is regarded as the centre of Taliban activity in Afghanistan. More than half the schools in the province have been closed down by attacks.

But Afghan intelligence reports suggest the military threat may not be as great as feared, with fewer than 300 Taliban fighters in Helmand under five local commanders. These are all under the control of Mullah Dadullah, the Taliban’s one-legged former intelligence chief, who is believed to be based across the Pakistani border in Quetta.

Apart from a “Taliban/Al-Qaeda backlash”, one of the main risks to British troops emphasised in the briefing is that of a “hostile backlash” to counter-narcotics activity.

Afghanistan is the biggest producer of opium and more than 90% of the heroin sold in the UK comes from there. Helmand is the centre of this production. Poppy cultivation in the province has doubled this year.

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