THE authoritarian ruler of Belarus has ordered snipers to take up positions tonight around the central square in Minsk, the capital, where thousands of opposition demonstrators are expected to gather to protest at his expected victory in the presidential elections.

Alexander Lukashenko, 51, who is certain to win a third term today amid widespread evidence of poll rigging, has put a special forces unit known as Almaz (diamond) on alert. The unit is suspected of involvement in the disappearance of some of his fiercest critics.

Opposition sources in the former Soviet republic said that they had also received reports that members of the Vitebsk division, a top paratroop unit, had been moved to the outskirts of Minsk from their base 150 miles away.

The deployment of snipers — revealed in a leaked official memo — has raised opposition fears that Lukashenko is ready to use force to prevent a repetition of Ukraine’s orange revolution, which brought Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-western candidate, to power in the place of a Kremlin-backed rival. Yesterday, mysterious text messages warning of bloodshed spread on mobile phones.

Opposition sources expect Lukashenko to announce that he has received 75%-80% of the vote. They believe that if the contest had been fair he would have won less than 50%, obliging him to take part in a second round run-off.

“Our protest will be peaceful and we will carry flowers,” said Alexander Milinkevich, 58, a former physics professor who is one of two opposition candidates. “But there is little doubt that Lukashenko is capable of ordering his troops to fire at a peaceful crowd. He will do anything to stay in power.”

Milinkevich and Alexander Kozulin, the other opposition candidate, hope today’s rally in October Square will prompt a repetition of events in Ukraine, where hundreds of thousands of demonstrators achieved a peaceful regime change. Few observers share their optimism.

Lukashenko, who has ruled his impoverished country of 10m since 1994, issued a decree last year giving himself the power to order troops to fire on unarmed civilians. He looks unlikely to give up without a fight.

In what many saw as a dress rehearsal for today’s demonstration, snipers were positioned around the square for the first time last month during a mass gathering of regional politicians loyal to his regime.

The election campaign has been anything but fair. Dozens of opposition leaders and youth activists critical of the president — a mustachioed former prison guard and communist collective farm boss — have been harassed, badly beaten and arrested by police.

At an opposition rally last week on Minsk’s outskirts, the two front rows were filled by burly security services men with shaved heads and leather jackets. They were the only ones not to clap the speakers.

To prevent people joining the protests, services to train stations and bus stops around October Square will be suspended from this morning. Tens of thousands of police officers are expected to seal off streets leading to the square.

Lukashenko’s victory is certain to raise tensions between the West, which has imposed sanctions against Belarus, and the Kremlin, which under President Vladimir Putin has continued to prop up the regime.

Raising the stakes still further, Stepan Sukhorenko, head of the Belarus KGB — which has retained its Soviet-era name and ruthless methods — has warned that if the demonstration turns violent, participants could be charged with terrorism, punishable by death.

Sukhorenko also claimed to have uncovered an international plot to provoke a coup by planting bombs during the elections. “We will not allow power to be seized under the guise of presidential elections,” he told a news conference at which KGB agents photographed every Belarussian journalist who asked a question.

In a televised address to the nation, Lukashenko, too, spoke darkly of attempts to overthrow his government. “Everything is being done to prevent even the smallest threat to the security of the people,” he said.

The opposition appears undaunted. “Lukashenko has plenty of thugs at his service who will follow his orders against the opposition, but we won’t be intimidated,” said a youth leader. “It’s time to show we are not in the 1930s under Stalin.”

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