MELES ZENAWI was hailed last year by Tony Blair as a leading member of a new generation of African leaders, and was praised for his enlightened approach to the continent’s problems. Indeed, the Ethiopian Prime Minister impressed Mr Blair so much that he asked him to become a member of his much-vaunted Commission for Africa.

But for all his apparent promise, Mr Meles employs some very old-style solutions to political problems. Opponents have been shot. Others, including children, are thrown in jail. When such behaviour attracts the ire of Western countries which annually pour millions of pounds of aid into the impoverished country in the Horn of Africa, he uses another favourite tactic of African dictators – he unleashes torrents of abuse directed at “neocolonialists”.

Time could be running out for Mr Meles and other so-called “new breed” leaders, such as Uganda’s President Museveni and Isayas Afewerki, the leader of Eritrea, who have also failed to meet the good governance grade set at the Gleneagles G8 summit in July.

Mr Blair, who pushed for the Ethiopian Government’s debts to be written off, could be forgiven for feeling a little let down. Ethiopia is likely to be the test case in a confrontation between donor nations and several African leaders.

Mr Museveni, who has been the West’s darling for years, has changed the constitution to allow him to stand for a third term and jailed the main Opposition leader on trumped-up treason charges. He told a frustrated British envoy that “only I have sufficient vision to lead this country, and that’s that”.

Mr Afewerki, meanwhile, has locked up most of his old comrades from the struggle for liberation from Ethiopia, exiled critical students to remote army posts and sent thousands of troops to the tense border with Ethiopia.

President Obasanjo of Nigeria, whose “war on corruption” initially won plaudits overseas, has indicated that he would like to follow Mr Museveni’s example and stay for a third term — an action certain to spark turmoil in Nigeria, which is the world’s eighth-largest oil exporter.

“The new year could be rocky for these guys,” said William Gumede, a South African political analyst. “The West is determined to receive payback in return for more debt forgiveness, more aid and trade reforms. Ethiopia looks like being the litmus test.”

Already the UN — which kept quiet when Mr Meles’s troops turned machineguns on protesting students at Addis Ababa University — and Western nations, led by the United States and Britain, have given warning that Ethiopia must end a crackdown on the Opposition party and independent press.

Thousands of protesters were jailed in November after two days of political unrest, over alleged vote-rigging in elections last May, claimed the lives of at least 46 people. Similar demonstrations in June led to the deaths of 42 students.

Britain, which is one of Ethiopia’s largest aid donors, froze a planned £20 million increase from £30 million to £50 million in “no strings attached” budget support and said that it would withdraw all remaining aid.

Several other donors followed suit and relocated a total of some £200 million to UN and other aid bodies working directly with Ethiopia’s 77 million people, most of whom live on far less than 50p a day.

Ethiopia receives just over £1 billion each year in aid, making it one of the largest recipients of foreign aid in Africa.

The country remains one of the poorest in the world, but still spends a large amount of its national budget on arms.

The tough stand by donor countries is unprecedented on a continent where recipient governments argue that the money is strictly for “humanitarian” purposes. It was triggered by concern that Mr Meles may begin another war with Eritrea, Ethiopia’s tiny neighbour.

Eritrea, which gained independence from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, has fought two disastrous border wars with its much larger neighbour since 1998. Estimates say that the war, in which tens of thousands of young conscripts were killed, cost more than £550,000 a day.

Ethiopia agreed to abide by the findings of an international border commission, but when that ruled that Badme — a tiny, dust-blown border town — belonged to Eritrea, Mr Meles changed his mind.

STRONGMAN

In December more than 80 were charged with treason and genocide connected with November’s protests, including journalists and Opposition leaders

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