THE Bush Administration has “solid evidence” that Saddam Hussein will unleash a “scorched earth” policy if he faces removal from power, including the blowing up of oil wells, power plants and food storage facilities.
The Pentagon also has firm evidence that the Iraqi President has decided to launch chemical and biological attacks on US troops, Iraq’s Shia and Kurd minorities and the people of Kuwait if he faces defeat, intelligence officials told The Times yesterday.
The Pentagon has a clear interest in vilifying Saddam, and there is no way to corroborate its claims, but one official insisted: “We get our evidence from defectors, overhead images and communications intercepts. When we call it solid, we have a combination of all those things.
“We have solid evidence that Saddam plans to blow up his oil wells and blame it on the US. He will also use his weapons of mass destruction when his regime is threatened and when he has absolutely nothing to lose. We have very good intelligence supporting this.”
The officials said that Saddam had ordered his military chiefs to set alight and destroy oil wells in the northern region of Kirkuk and the southern city of Basra if the Iraqi Army starts to disintegrate. He hopes that the ensuing conflagration would cause huge smoke clouds that would hamper American bombers.
The American claims came as Hans Blix, the chief United Nations weapons inspector, prepared to deliver his preliminary assessment of Iraq’s 11,000-page weapons dossier to the UN Security Council today.
After he has spoken, Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, and John Negroponte, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, will give America’s first official response. London and Washington have made it abundantly clear already that they do not believe that the dossier complies with the UN’s demand for a full disclosure of Iraq’s efforts to build nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
Yesterday General Powell said: “Our analysis of the Iraqi declaration to this point ... shows gaps, omissions and all of this is troublesome. We are not encouraged that they (the Iraqis) have gotten the message or will co-operate, based on what we have seen so far in the declaration, but we will stay within the UN process.
Jack Straw denounced the dossier, saying: “It seems that Saddam Hussein has decided to continue the pretence that Iraq has had no weapons of mass destruction programme since 1998. This will fool nobody. If Saddam persists in this obvious falsehood, it will become clear that he has rejected the pathway to peace laid down in Resolution 1441.”
Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman, said that President Bush “is concerned about omissions in the declaration and problems in the declaration”.
Tony Blair ratcheted up the pressure by insisting that war could start without further UN approval. He said that although it was his “desire” to work with UN backing, action would be taken if Saddam breached the resolution, even if there was “blocking” at the Security Council.
However, despite the military build-up on which the US and Britain have now embarked, neither Mr Bush nor Mr Blair yet appear ready to declare that Iraq has breached UN Resolution 1441, or to resort to force. One White House official told The Times: “The view of the Administration is that Iraq has flunked the test. We will make it clear that they have done so. But it is too early to be talking about war.” Washington and its allies need more time to increase the build-up of troops and military equipment in the Gulf region. Any potential military action is still weeks away, officials say.
Washington would also like to extract Saddam’s scientists from Iraq in the hope of obtaining more conclusive evidence that he continues to pursue nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
The measured US response is also is a reflection of the political realities on the Security Council. Russia and France believe that there is no justification for military action so early in the inspections process. They also say that it is the inspectors, and not the US or any other Security Council member, who can decide whether Iraq is in “material breach” of its obligations.
France yesterday gave warning against America taking any unilateral action against Iraq without first obtaining UN approval, saying that it was up to the UN inspectors to say whether Baghdad has violated the UN’s disaramament order.
General Powell reassured the world yesterday that the United States would “stay within the UN process”. Mr Blair said that he thought the UN would back action if there had been a breach — the first time that he had sounded so confident of international support.
Mr Straw promised to complete a full analysis of the Iraqi documents by mid-January and left the door open to Saddam to come back with more relevant data.
He told Syrian television yesterday: “The ball is now in Saddam’s court. We doubt very much the declaration is full, frank and complete.
“Saddam will have a last chance over the next few weeks to come clean. He has got to say what material he has. He has not yet done so.”
Foreign Office sources confirmed that Britain believes that Saddam has now failed the first of the two hurdles — making false statements — set by the UN as constituting a “material breach” of Resolution 1441. The second — failing to comply with inspection — could happen at any time if documents are withheld or interviews with scientists hindered, sources said.
The White House believes that the strong rhetoric coming from London and Washington will increase pressure not only on Saddam, but also on the UN inspectors to step up their efforts on the ground in the hope that concrete evidence of Iraqi weapons programmes can be found.
Menzies Campbell MP, the Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman, said: “If the Government is aware of specific material omissions in the Iraqi statement it should give that information immediately to the inspectors.”
Italian offer
Rome: Italy has offered the US and its allies the use of airspace and military bases in the event of an attack on Iraq (Richard Owen writes). Antonio Martino, the Defence Minister, said Italy had been approached by Washington a month ago over what role it might play. “At the moment we do not foresee specific military contributions,” he told Parliament. Bases at Aviano, Sigonella, Naples, Gaeta, Livorno and Vicenza are thought to be involved.
