EVEN before a single shot is fired in the looming war on Iraq, a long, and at times bitter, struggle to enlist Baghdad’s reluctant neighbours in the American campaign is already nearing its close.

Ten months after Dick Cheney, the US Vice-President, was greeted by an angry barrage of resistance as he toured the region trying to rally support for the overthrow of the Iraqi regime, one by one the opponents of the war have gradually shifted their positions and are now reluctantly ready to do Washington’s bidding.

If and when hostilities do break out, it is hard to imagine any country in the region, including stubborn holdouts such as Syria and Saudi Arabia, choosing to stand up to the Americans and risk being seen to side with President Saddam Hussein in his final hour. There is even a possibility that when the countdown begins for war, a mini-stampede of latecomers will send their troops to join the Americans and the British.

The considerable US diplomatic victory was achieved quietly, using a mixture of threats and inducements that no country, least of all the weakened Arab states, could resist.

Of Iraq’s six neighbouring states, three countries — Kuwait, Jordan and Turkey — will be critical to the war effort and have been included already in US military planning for any offensive.

Kuwait, after its invasion and brutal occupation by Iraq a decade ago, is probably the most strongly in favour of Saddam’s removal, along with Iran, which suffered ever greater losses during its war with Iraq.

Kuwait has been designated as the main launchpad for a US-led land offensive into southern Iraq and has given up any pretence at wanting to halt the war. It would like the conflict to be quick and effective. Similarly, Bahrain and Qatar have agreed to host American forces for as long as it takes to finish the job. Even Saudi Arabia will probably swallow its pride and allow the US military to use the key Prince Sultan airbase to run the air campaign, the first phase of the war.

Jordan, which shares a small but strategic border with western Iraq, has made its choice. Despite public opposition to the war from native Jordanians and the large Palestinian population, King Abdullah II has made clear that he will not stand in the way of any US-led operation.

Only Turkey is still left struggling with how to deal with the Iraqi issue. The powerful Turkish military has told Washington that its support is solid. Undertakings have been given that America will be permitted to deploy tens of thousands of troops as a staging post for action in Iraq.

But the newly elected Government, led by the Justice and Development Party, is having second thoughts. It is trying to come to terms with its loyalty to the United States and its own public, which voted the former Islamic party to power and which is strongly opposed to war.

“Ultimately, they have as much interest in getting rid of Saddam as the rest of us,” an American official said. “It is hard to see them disagreeing with a direct request from President Bush for help.” Inducements in the form of billions of dollars’ of assistance, military support and political help in Europe are expected to swing the argument.

When the Turks finally relent, the circle will be complete and phase one of the war will be over.

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