ONE of the former Soviet Union’s most tenacious leaders will surrender his throne this week, passing it to his son in what is widely seen as an attempt to keep the scale of corruption under wraps.

The presidential election in Azerbaijan on Wednesday is causing concern, not just because it is rigged, but also because the West has invested billions in the oil-rich republic.

President Aliyev, 80, had been going strong until he suffered a heart attack while appearing on television this summer. After undergoing surgery in the United States, he said that he was ready to stand down and appointed his son, Ilhan, as Prime Minister.

This is his son’s first important political position and placed him in the running for the presidency. He hit the campaign trail a week ago. With the state machine behind him, Ilham Aliyev has enjoyed limitless airtime, and his wealth, which many believe is stolen state money, has allowed him to make generous pre-election gestures.

Mr Aliyev, 41, is unlike his father in looks as well as character. His broad girth betrays a love of the good life and he wears a walrus moustache. He once owned a chain of casinos in Baku, the capital, and Istanbul, which lost him several million dollars.

He is politically inexperienced, but, as vice-president of the state oil company, he knows about the black gold that supports the economy. Most importantly, according to Elmar Husseinov, editor of the satirical magazine Monitor, Aliyev Jr will keep his father’s methods under wraps. “Placing his son in power is the only way to hide the scale of corruption in the Government,” Mr Husseinov said.

Billions of pounds in investment from BP and from American oil companies mean that stability is critical. The biggest project is the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, which will cost almost £2 billion. The first oil is scheduled to flow in 2005, carrying one million barrels a day from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.

President Aliyev came to power in Azerbaijan in 1969. He had been an active member of the Soviet Politburo until the Gorbachev era. In 1993 he returned to Azerbaijan, taking over from the independent government that established itself after the Soviet Union’s collapse.

Under its rule, a conflict with neighbouring Armenia had escalated. Mr Aliyev secured a ceasefire and negotiated a multibillion-dollar contract with Western oil companies. Azerbaijan’s economy has flourished, although most people have yet to benefit.

Many believe that Ilham Aliyev will not rule for long. Kate Mallinson, an analyst for the London-based Control Risks Group, said: “Ilham Aliyev is likely to win elections, but, like most dynastical successions, it is unlikely that he will serve a full term in office.” She gave warning of the possibility of violent demonstrations against reported falsification of the votes and “conflict between armed or paramilitary groups and the Government”.

Ms Mallinson said that one possible election outcome was that potential rivals within the ruling elite, including Namik Abbasov, the Security Minister, will join opposition candidates to form a coalition.

Despite such threats, the oil sector hopes that he will win. There is a consensus that under his rule the oil contracts will not be revised and hope that any political turmoil will not affect the business climate.

Elections in Azerbaijan have a bad track record for fairness. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe is sending 620 observers and there will be 1,500 observers in all, but it is widely expected that the election commission will fiddle the figures. A poll by Adam, the independent inquiry centre, found that only 21 per cent of the population will vote for Mr Aliyev.

A COUNTRY IN FIGURES

Explore World News

• World Agenda

• Iraq News

• US & Americas News

• Europe News

• Middle East News

• Afghanistan News

• Asia News

• Africa News

• Ireland News

Times Recommends

• Mandela’s tribe threatens President Zuma
• The French empire strikes back
• Wife of cheating governor exacts a political revenge