The stage is set for a bruising internal power struggle among the highest ranks of China’s secretive ruling Communist Party over whether its leader should hold all three of the top jobs. The debate has broken out in the run up to a decisive congress in the autumn.

Hu Jintao, who as state President and party chief is China’s most powerful man, is facing threats to his position. Senior colleagues in the party that has ruled China since 1949 seem impatient with this accumulation of power and positions.

Allies of Zeng Qinghong, the Vice-President, have urged that he be promoted to the post of President at the annual session of parliament early next year. Their aim is to end a two- decades-old practice of concentrating the top three jobs — president, party chief and head of the military — in the hands of one man, sources close to the leadership told Reuters. They want to return to a system of distribution of positions.

The debate, raging behind closed doors, would be evidence of a fresh outbreak of the jockeying among leaders that preceded such eras of chaos as the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution and the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. However, since 1989 the party has done its utmost to present a united front to the outside world, emphasising that power is exercised by a collective leadership and not by a single individual.

Supporters of Vice-President Zeng want a return to the modus vivendi of the late 1950s and early 1960s when power was shared by four national leaders. In a departure from that practice, Jiang Zemin was appointed to the presidency as well as to the party and military posts with his sudden elevation to power after the 1989 Tiananmen demonstrations. In 2002 he handed the party general-secretary post to Mr Hu, who became President in 2003 and military chief the next year.

If Mr Hu agrees, or is forced, to hand over the presidency this could be viewed as a sign of weakness or of his confidence in his grip on power through the most powerful position — head of the Communist Party. Giving up the presidency would give him more time to focus on domestic government and strengthening the party’s monopoly on power.

While Mr Hu has at times appeared awkward and ill at ease on the international stage, he has relished the prestige accrued from overseas visits and the burnishing of his image at home. He would be unlikely to give up the role of president without a fight, and defeat after an internal battle could impair his power seriously.

The damage to his image as well as to his powerbase would be far-reaching, since Mr Hu’s country is now the world’s fourth-biggest economy. The sapping of his influence could hamper his ability to implement new policies or to stamp his mark on Chinese history.

Such a behind-the-scenes debate is not unexpected as the party gears up for its 17th Communist Party Congress — a five-yearly gathering at which a Politburo and Central Committee are chosen for the next half-decade. This will be Mr Hu’s moment to move his own people into place and the last opportunity for his rivals to prevent him. It is also a chance for horsetrading that may require Mr Hu to give up his least powerful post in return for endorsement of his successor.

Man of ideas

Hu Jintao has made narrowing the gap between rich and poor the centrepiece of his policy

He has made a show of demonstrating his commitment to fighting corruption — graft is seen as the greatest threat to the Communist Party’s power

instructed propaganda officials that while the economic policies of Cuba and North Korea were flawed, their political policies were correct

has tried to limit debate on the internet, jail dissenters and control non-governmental organisations

has tried to clean up China’s environment with a “green GDP” tying officials’ performance to success in curbing pollution

Source: Jane Macartney

Times Recommends

• A doctor, a daughter and a man called Johnny
• Mona Lisa's smile may have belied ill health
• ‘Parasite economy’ lies behind Greek tragedy