Jane Macartney in Beijing and Julian Evans in Moscow
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President Hu Jintao of China arrives in Moscow today on his third trip to Russia — a visit as much about ceremony as substance, with the giant neighbours and former foes eager for another opportunity to project an image of solidarity.
Russia was Mr Hu’s first foreign stop after he took over the presidency in 2003 and, with this visit, it becomes his most popular international destination — a sign of Beijing’s seriousness in courting its energy-exporting neighbour.
Both countries are eager to give a high profile to an often-troubled relationship. Last year was marked as the “Year of Russia in China” and in return President Hu will join his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, this week to inaugurate a “Year of China in Russia” that will feature displays of wonders from the Forbidden City as well as a tea festival.
However, behind the handshakes, vodka toasts and banquets, the leaders of the world’s number two oil consumer and the second-largest oil exporter have serious business to discuss and a tricky relationship to nurture.
In Mr Hu’s own words, the relationship has never been so good. “Chinese-Russian relations are developing vigorously and have reached unprecedented levels,” he said in a rare interview. Indeed, the fact that the media-shy Mr Hu has only ever given three interviews, and all to Russian journalists, highlights the importance his government attaches to the relationship.
Making the headlines will be the signing of $4.3 billion (£2.2 billion) of contracts. There will be credit deals between the State Development Bank of China and Russian banks, agreements on transport of oil by rail to China and memorandums on scientific and technical cooperation. “We haven’t had a visit of such magnitude yet,” said Sergei Sanakoyev, the head of the Russian-Chinese Centre for Trade and Economic Cooperation.
Trade reached a record $33.4 billion in 2006, up nearly 15 per cent from the previous year, Chinese figures show. Mr Hu was optimistic. “As our relations and strategic interaction forges ahead, I am sure that the objectives we set with President Putin — to bring trade to $60-80 billion by 2010 — will be met.”
Russia’s abundance of fuel and China’s hunger for energy to power its industrial juggernaut will ensure trade growth. But disputes over pricing and supplies for long-mooted oil and gas pipelines to China remain unresolved. Most Russian oil exports still travel to China by train.
Discussions will almost certainly touch on pipeline plans. Russia opted in 2003 against a single line directly to China, choosing instead to skirt its neighbour with a line to the Russian Pacific coast. The talk since has been of building a branch off that main route to Daqing, the Chinese oil capital, in the northeast of the country.
While the Kremlin frets about the influence of China in the underpopulated far east of Russia, China is keen to develop their “strategic partnership” and emphasise the strength of a friendship that acts as a counter-axis to the power of the United States.
Difficult neighbours
— Many senior members of the Chinese Communist Party trained in military academies in the Soviet Union
— Chairman Mao’s third wife, Guiyuan (He Zizhen), spent her last years in the Soviet Union after receiving medical treatment there
— Stalin consistently provided support to Mao’s fledgeling regime even though he viewed it as a potential threat
— In 1955 Nikita Khrushchev, Stalin’s successor, agreed to give Mao the technology to build nuclear weapons
— In 1959, alarmed by Mao’s Great Leap Forward, the Soviets reneged on their 1955 promise, prompting the Sino-Soviet split until 1969
Source: Mao — The Unknown Story, Jung Chang and Jon Halliday; agencies
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I see a real threat to the West emerging from the alliance between these two super-powers. It alarms me that both Russia and China are willing to do business with rogue nations like Iran and North Korea.
Richard Ramsey, Salt Spring Island, CANADA