Jane Macartney in Beijing
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China has admitted that global warming will have a massive impact on its environment but it is ready to take only limited action to reduce its soaring carbon emissions.
Its first report on climate change says that the country has warmed up more than most in the past 50 years and that drought and flooding will cause severe damage to crop production unless something is done.
China is already poised to overtake the United States as the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide — possibly this year and no later than next year — the International Energy Agency said at the weekend.
The National Climate Assessment Report says that by 2020, the nation’s average temperature will increase from 1.1C to 2.1C. This will result in increased floods in the east and more droughts in the north and the west. The higher than average temperatures will also mean spreading deserts, shrinking glaciers and more outbreaks of disease.
By the end of the century glaciers on the Tibet plateau that feed the Yangtze river — an important source of water and power for the Shanghai basin and its hinterland — could shrink by two-thirds. Higher rainfall downstream would also trigger landslides and other geological disasters around the massive Three Gorges Dam across the Yangtze.
The report says that water scarcity and extreme weather could reduce nationwide crop production by as much as 10 per cent by 2030. In the second half of the century wheat, rice and corn production could drop by up to 37 per cent. “If we do not take any actions climate change will damage China’s longterm grain security,” it says.
However, it rules out absolute and compulsory caps before 2050 on China’s rising greenhouse gas emissions in favour of much less ambitious goals. Instead it suggests cutting the amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide created per unit of national wealth. That, if adopted, would be China’s first — albeit unambitious — climate change goal.
The main proposal is to cut emissions of carbon dioxide per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40 per cent from 2000 to 2020. That is a measure called carbon intensity. However, China’s aim over the same two decades is to quadruple its GDP — so that reaching its carbon intensity goal would imply more than a doubling of emissions.
The European Union says that the plan is incompatible with avoiding more dangerous climate change. It believes that to minimise warming greenhouse gas emissions will have to fall in rich nations and no more than double in developing countries.
China, however, believes that international emission limits are unfair and could cause economic problems. It claims that it lacks the technology to meet such ambitious goals. Its leaders are also concerned that closing older factories or power plants could destroy jobs in poorer areas, where the government worries about unrest among the unemployed.
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At the end of the day it seems the only way everyone is going to wake up to the reality of whats happening is when a much larger scale disaster occurs.
The maybe the focus on wealth, growth and being No 1 in the world will really be put in perspective.
Yee, UK,
Hai, I have been living in Beijing for 10 years and what you write is just hackneyed official rethoric, the kind of commonplace statement I've thousands of tiimes from your fellow citizens and on state TV. You want a suggestion? Ok, I give you one: don't be brainwashed by official propaganda and nationalistic pride. Think for yourself and be critical. That's the power of free-speech.
jack, Beijing,
I am a Chinese. I do admit that environment issue becomes more and more important to our country and the world as a whole. And we do promise to tack some action against it. However, it takes some time. Be patient.
However, the West always accuse us without any suggestions on how to improve it. Or like some comments posted here to use environment issues as a propaganda to against CCP. Environment issue is not unique in China, UK and USA also face the same issue. Why do they not use the same issue to accuse their governments and their business behavior? If this is the key principle of west democracy(adopting double standard to make sweeping statements), then democracy is a failure.
Hai, Shanghai, China
This is confusing. If someone accepts that the world is getting warmer due to human output of CO2, and if that person also accepts that global warmer would harm mankind then how could that person not accept making changes in behavior to prevent it. Isn't the definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again but expect a different outcome? It is one thing to deny that global warming is happening due to humans and then not do anything but I cannot follow the logic of agreeing with it and then still do nothing.
This article describes exactly the above scenario. The Chinese government has accepted that climate change is real. They believe that it is caused by human activity. Their solution is to double the output of carbon dioxide???
I write about this on my site dedicated to global warming. http://www.globalwarming-factorfiction.com.
Sean O, Mason, Ohio
It appears to me that China is wanting to choose their economy over the earth.
Tiffany, Miami, Oklahoma
Anyone travelling through China becomes quickly aware of widespread contempt for the environment. By spectacularly inverting the most basic axioms of Marxism in the space of a few decades, the Chinese Communist Party has spawned the world's most ravenous dog-eat-dog society. Caught between two worlds, the Chinese lack a clear frame of reference. The Mao era is rightly castigated but the current social model has been invented in a climate of ignorance. Economic progress - on a personal and national level - is seen as the only salvation left for those whose ideals were deliberately put to sleep by the architects of reform. As economic development and political credibility for the CCP are synonymous, the coal will keep burning in China until it's too late and the whole of north China becomes desert.
Donald Smith, London, England
we should realize that China is making progress! Try not eat an elephant one time. Bit by bit!!
Harry, Tianjin,
hehe would The UK government abandon the industrial revolution?
guludu, shanghai , China
I'm sitting in my apartment in Central Hong Kong and i can't see across the harbour due to the haze, mist or whatever. It's recorded that in the '70s on average 4 days a month had low visibility, now only 4 days a month are considered to have decent visibility! Most people here think that it's in part due to the pollution produced on the Chinese border by Hong Kong owned factories, i wonder how many other factories with their own power plants are owned by weathly multinationals in China??? Surely it's time for these companies and the west to take responsibility and help China improve their technology and education as they are the ones benefitting greatly. Someone sell China some green technology, im sure you could get a handsome fee for it! Or go to China develop a green enterprise employ and sell it back to the west, be an example! This is probably just me being naive...
Nick, Hong Kong,
I believe for the moment that there is a policy of expansion in their economy, but it does not necesarily mean that they control all the variables. In its eagerness to show itself as a superpower, perhaps China is walking toward enormous problems. The question is, then, do they have some other way to be important and at the same problem avoid the problems that we foresee?
laudemar gonzalez (sr), toronto, canada
Every developed nation(U.K, Germany, France, U.S.) has emitted large quantities of emissions in their period of development. China is developing and should have the freedom to develop and not be hindered to a great extent. The world is aware of global warming and every country should do as much as it possibly can. Rather, than comparing their country's carbon emissions to others.
Vaughn, London, U.K.
Nathan - the article says that China's CO2 emissions are still lower than the US, and China's population is more than 4 times higher. Do the maths ;)
Bob Frost, Beijing, China
This article seems to put China in a bad light. Indeed it suggests to me that China is inconsiderate in its capacity as a global superpower to take responsibility for its carbon emissions. I recently heard on the radio that China is per capita or per head much lower in carbon emissions than other Western countries such as the United States and UK. Is this true? If so, should it not be included in the article to present a more well informed picture to the average reader?
Nathan, Cambridge, UK