The clashes and violence in Karachi this weekend have given a major new turn to the ongoing protests at the removal of Pakistan's Chief Justice, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry.

What had been a peaceful protest for the independence of the judiciary has turned violent and been transformed into a general pro-democracy movement. The Government's attempts to curb the demonstrations in Karachi have had the opposite effect: increasing immensely the pressure on General Musharraf and galvanising the opposition parties.

There are now widespread demands for Musharraf to hang up his uniform and give up power and my hunch is that he will not last the year. This is the worst crisis since he took power in 1999. It is a crisis of legitimacy and it is distinguished by the fact that the protests are entirely secular and democratic in their character.

In recent years, the major protests in Pakistan have been whipped up by Islamic preachers, driving crowds on to the streets to demonstrate against the Government on questions of faith. But the crisis over the courts has been secular and spontaneous, a reaction not just to the removal of the chief justice, but the manner of it. People were really angered by the sight of an independent judge being called before five or six generals, questioning him for hours, intimidating him in their uniforms.

Musharraf is seen to have attacked whatever remained of Pakistan's judicial independence. It's not that the courts were entirely independent: in 2000 five Supreme Court judges refused to renew their oaths of office to serve under the military government and the country's chief justice was replaced.

In the case of Chaudhry, he had emerged as a pro-active and vigorous judge who was expected to be an obstacle to Musharraf's plans to run for re-election later this year. The General has already hinted that he plans to stay in office and will need a constitutional amendment to allow him to continue to serve as both the country's President and Chief of Staff. The argument over this amendment will end up in the Supreme Court.

The legal side of this confrontation continues to make its way through the courts but it is worth pointing out that the protest movement has such momentum now that the supreme court will find it very hard to uphold the Government's argument. Everybody believes that the complaint against Mr Chaudhry should not stand and if the court was to rule against him, I do not think the people would accept it.

The most likely outcome is a change of leadership in Pakistan, with the change coming from within the military. Pakistan's generals have benefited greatly from the regime but such is the anger against Musharraf that they may come to realise that he is a liability for the military establishment as a whole and that threatens them. As in 1969 and the resignation of General Ayyub Khan, who turned power over to his deputy, they may well say: "Look sir, you have a done a good job but it is time to step down."

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