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The storming of the Red Mosque in the centre of Islamabad may be the deciding factor in the survival in office of President Pervez Musharraf. Already dozens have been killed in the fighting between Islamist militants in the mosque and Pakistani security forces.
If the siege ends in a bloodbath, with many women and children among those killed, the resulting uproar could trigger a general uprising among the tribal and religious groups opposed to the Pakistani leader.
General Musharraf is clearly hoping that most Pakistanis will, however, blame the militants for the bloodshed. Indeed, one reason why he has waited so long before ordering in the soldiers is to show Pakistanis and the outside world that it is the extremists who are deliberately provoking the showdown and are actively seeking “martyrdom”, as their leader has insisted.
Most people in Islamabad have blamed the President for not taking tougher action earlier. They have been shocked and angered by the militants’ violent attempts over the past six months to impose sharia on the capital and the forays by armed students to attack music shops, kidnap women alleged to be prostitutes and target anything seen as “unIslamic”. The Government’s failure to act until now has been portrayed as weakness — despite Musharraf’s insistence that he was seeking to avoid bloodshed.
The security forces have clearly been ordered to avoid confrontation and have repeatedly held back after strafing the campus of the mosque and the adjacent seminary to allow some of the students to surrender and to offer further negotiations. They also hoped that the cutting off of food, water and electricity and the ignominious capture of the firebrand chief cleric as he was attempting to escape in a burka would force an end to the siege.
The military showdown, however, is taking place in the centre of the capital, and General Musharraf’s enemies are sure to exploit it to turn opinion against him. Already the religious conservatives in the vast North West Frontier Province, who have close links with the mosque, are in uproar.
A separate rebellion against central authority is going on in North and South Waziristan, where al-Qaeda’s leadership has found haven. In Baluchistan there has been an uprising against Islamabad by separatists who want greater control of the income from their energy resources. In big cities such as Karachi fighting is endemic between local people and those immigrants from India after Partition, as well as violent attacks and the firebombing of each others’ mosques by Sunni and Shia extremists.
General Musharraf has also added to his troubles by suspending the former Chief Justice, and this has alienated not only the judiciary and civil service, but large sections of the middle class, who have joined demonstrations against his proposal to run again for President while remaining head of the Army.
With his back to the wall politically, General Musharraf has only two alternatives: the imposition of martial law or a deal with the political establishment that would inevitably curb his powers.
He is now negotiating in secret for a return to Pakistan of Benazir Bhutto, the exiled former Prime Minister, against whom all corruption charges would be dropped. Analysts suggest that if she becomes Prime Minister again, she will quickly move to limit the near-dictatorial powers enjoyed by the President.
General Musharraf is gambling that a showdown with Islamist extremists would re-establish his authority. The Army has certainly been itching for a chance to take on the militants, and the confrontation is intended to send a strong message also to ISI, Pakistan’s powerful intelligence service, which is said to be infiltrated by Islamists and has been ambivalent in its role to neutralise Taleban-style militants.
Everything depends on the outcome of the battle at the mosque. For General Musharraf, the stakes could not be higher.
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As the numbers of bodies of children mount many beyond recognition, was this worth it ? I suppose for a bush tail it was.
My understanding is that the Imam had agreed to negotiaitions, just before they were bombed, with his mother injured, its not surprising he did not trust the authorities
Unfortunately the impact of this dastardly action will impact on the whole of society, and not only the hypocrite
U ImanI, welford,
How nice it would be to see those parties in exile accept that they were corrupt and now reformed ! All we hear is eternal bleatings of his efforts to govern his country under very diffuclt circumstances. In my opinion you people should be ashamed of yourselves. By all means assist this man in returning your country to democracy, The way you are going about it at this time indicates to us no less than an effort to restore corrupt government. You are a fantastic Country if you give yourselves a chance !!!. Back the man instead of undermining him in his wish to restore democracy. If you undermine him,we here in the West in my opinion will regard your efforts as nothing more than recreating a corrupt, nepotic, dangerous,unstable, subversive entity , that we will have to confront at a later date.
Denis Tighe, Glenrothes, UK
Musharraf has no other choice but resign and leave the arena with respect rather than meet the fate his predecessor military ruler had.
Besides, what has he got now to divert public opinion from Chief Justice and movement for restoration of democracy by the opposition.
He has played his card of Lal Masjid but that also very badly and this is going to backfire. People are questioning number of deaths and secrecy shrouds on what exactly was agreed between the Government and the cleric and then who sabotaged that agreement.
B A Solangi, Ilford, u
I just hope and pray that Musharraf stays in power and receives the nations support. He has done alot of good for the Pakistanis at home and abroad. Though only if the government of Pakistan could do more about the number of illiterates, once that number is reduced it will help Pakistan grow.
zulfiqar, London,
It is time for all Pakistanis to be united in the face of such ruthless, ignorant, arrogant Mullahs who are completely out of touch with life in the present world.
They have brought great harm to Islam, Pakistan and all Muslims around the world, all because Islam for them is a tool that gives them power over the illiterate, innocent and poor masses.
We need to clean Islam of all these self proclaimed loonies and send them to the dungeons where they belong.
This is the dark age of Muslims because, there is no clear guidance, every Mullah I have come across wants build his own little enclave with his/her followers to be sacrificed when the time comes.
It is time for all Muslims to wake up and accept responsibility, because these creatures are of our creation and have nothing to do with Islam.
If they are so patriotic then why donât they enlist in the Army, Navy or the Air force where their lives will be of use to the nation rather than killing their own fellow citizens.
Shahzad, London, UK
General Pervaiz musharraf is acting like a poodle of America and George Bush. He has no popular support in Pakistan anymore. Red Mosque standoff could be solve by Negotiation. But General Musharraf doing it all for gain the support of West not his public.
Abul Hasan, Karachi, Pakistan
It is incomprehensible why Musharraf ordered assault on the Lal Masjid at this time when this problem has been brewing up for nearly a year. The main cleric, Ghazi, who is now dead was patronised by his government and Mr Ejaz ul Haq has been openly supporting him knowing that this cleric was engaged in activities which were direct defiance of rule of law.
Where from these clerics and their support received heavy weapons? It is widely perceived that agencies, who are now intricately involved in day to day affairs of the government, have delivered this ammunition. I had this suspicion lurking in my mind that Maulana Ghazi will not be spared of his life as he had many secrets which are now buried with him.
If Musharraf had thought of diverting public opinion from Supreme Court hearings and recently concluded All Parties Conference in London then he has miserably failed. What is Musharraf going to do now?
B A Solangi, Ilford, UK
Having waited so patiently and exhausting all possible options of a peaceful solution, Musharraf was left with the only option to get over with it by use of force. The lives of those held hostage inside the mosque, bore a testimony to the hypocracy of the clerics who spared nothing in bringing a bad name to Islam and Pakistan. It was a job well done.
Malik Shahzad, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
Much as I hate to admit it, Musharraf has done something sensible for once. He gave the Mullahs enough rope to hang themselves, atleast in the eyes of millions of "moderate" Pakistanis and then launched a fairly measured and proportionate operation.Loss of so many lives is deplorable but then this is the price we may have to pay for decades of Mullah-Military alliance and tacit approval of this by the geo-strategists in the West.
Raja Kaiqobad, Lahore, Pakistan
very good job keep at it
chuck, london ontario , canada
Musharraf did absolutely right thing
Khan, portsmouth, uk