The ending of the siege of the Red Mosque has given more hope than any event for years about Pakistan’s potential for stability. It has also given good reason to think that President Musharraf has bounced back out of his recent engulfing troubles, although that is a mixed blessing.

Yesterday, as special forces stormed the white and turquoise walls of the mosque’s seminary, the lack of public protest was striking. There were a few demonstrations by religious groups — that was all. Compare that to the tens of thousands on the streets when Musharraf sacked Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in March.

Better that a country’s most vocal demonstrators are barristers in black suits, protesting at threats to the Constitution, than that they are religious militants, rejecting its basic principles of organisation. This suggests that the essential moderation of Pakistani society, politics and religion is holding firm, the best possible hope for its future.

Religious parties regularly poll no more than about 7 per cent, and the week-long siege, putting many women and children inside the seminary at risk, has done nothing to boost their support. Instead, condemnation of the militants has been heard across the country.

Cleric killed in final assault on Red Mosque

Abdul Rashid Ghazi was among more than 50 militants who died today as Pakistani commandos stormed besieged mosque

• Analysis: Musharraf faced with stark choice after mosque siege

• On the spot: Islamabad shocked by violent end to siege

BACKGROUND

• Brainwashed children plead to die as martyrs in Red Mosque siege

• Children flee mosque as Pakistani troops move in

• Mosque stand-off sparks trouble

Multimedia

• In pictures: Red Mosque siege aftermath

Related Links

• Battered Musharraf playing with fire

Musharraf has done himself a great deal of good by the decisive action to end the siege — enough to wipe out the accusations of vacillation, since the Islamabad mosque started causing trouble in January. Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the opposition Pakistan People’s Party, said yesterday that she supported his decision not to appease the militants. If nothing else, that is a sign that the eternal talks between Musharraf and Bhutto, the former Prime Minister, still have some life.

The outline is clear: if Musharraf quashes corruption charges against Bhutto, her party will back him for another term, despite the constitutional murkiness of his claim. Or at least, it will agree not to vote against him, which amounts to the same thing. The US has been enthusiastic about a Musharraf-Bhutto alliance, given that its interests are now identical with his — that elections should be held to preserve the semblance of democracy, but that the outcome should safely deliver him another term. The US has been remarkably quiet over the sacking of the Chief Justice, a move designed to prevent Chaudhry from challenging Musharraf’s right to another term.

Britain has been more sceptical of Musharraf’s attempt to embed himself in the presidency, seeing this as an evasion of democratic discipline that could bolster support for extreme parties. That is surely right. There are worrying mutterings in Islamabad about the possibility that the elections, due later this year, may be put back by a year because of recent turmoil. This would be a serious mistake by Musharraf, and would refuel the protests.

This summer has shown that Pakistan retains a deep preference for moderate government with, at most, a muted religious tinge, and for the rule of law. If Musharraf does toy with delaying elections, he can expect trouble.

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