The deaths of 16 soldiers in an ambush today and of more than 100 other people in extremist attacks in the last week can all be directly linked to the Government's raid on the Red Mosque.

The violence has erupted mainly in the tribal areas of North and South Waziristan in the northwest of the country, on the Afghan border.

The Government says that Abdul Rashid Ghazi, the leading cleric in the Red Mosque, had links with Baidullah Massud, the main military leader in North Waziristan who was a former commander under the Taleban in Afghanistan.

Baidullah Massud and Abdul Rashid Ghazi also had links with Mullah Faqir Muhammad, a military commander fighting government forces in his tribal area of Bajaur, and with other radical clerics in North West Frontier Province.

The impetus for the militants to end their ceasefire is partly the desire to take revenge for the deaths of clerics, militants and seminary students when government forces stormed the Red Mosque in Islamabad where they were holding out.

Their deaths caused a wave of public anger and great anti-Musharraf feeling in North West Frontier Province, from where most of the students came.

The militants are able to exploit that wave of anger against the Government to step up their activities. Yesterday's suicide bombing against civilian demonstrators in Islamabad was also connected. The victims of that attack were not soldiers, but government sources are saying that it was the aim of the militants to create terror and mayhem in cities.

At the weekend, tribal leaders in Waziristan abandoned their 10-month ceasefire, whereby they promised to control militant activity in return for a policy of non-interference by Islamabad. Now the ceasefire is broken we can expect much heavier fighting in that region.

The Americans are not sorry to see the ceasefire go. Yesterday's US intelligence report blames it for the fact that al-Qaeda activites have increased tremendously in the last two years in Waziristan, posing a threat to the US.

The Nato leader in Afghanistan has blamed the ceasefire for giving the al-Qaeda leaders space to regroup inside Pakistan, and says it has led to an increase in cross-border attacks inside Afghanistan.

The Pakistani Government has until now been defending its ceasefire, and talking of trying to revive it, saying that it has been effective in reducing the bloody clashes between the army and the extremists in which many soldiers died.

But there is no going back for Musharraf now. He is faced with this challenge and, particularly after the Red Mosque raid, he has no choice but to renew his fight against extremism.

He has already moved forces to North West Frontier Province, and more troops have been sent in particular to Waziristan, which is the centre of tribal support for extremism.

But there is huge difficulty for General Musharraf. The public anger in tribal areas against his raid on the Red Mosque, and the escalation of violence by the militants, have added to his long list of problems, including the political crisis which has developed over his sacking of the chief justice. It is fair to describe him as embattled.

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