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From The Sunday Times

July 29, 2007

Musharraf risks civil war as he invades the Al-Qaeda badlands

Pakistan’s president takes on the Islamic militants who have set up a rogue state on his country’s wild north

Ghulam Hasnain

IN North Waziristan, the wild border land that America hopes will be Osama Bin Laden’s graveyard, the normally busy roads are almost deserted and the fear is pervasive. Army helicopters sweep the valleys at night hunting for Al-Qaeda militants as troops and gunmen exchange artillery and rocket fire.

America and Britain regard this usually autonomous tribal area - where Bin Laden is long believed to have been hiding - as the logistics centre of Islamic terrorist attacks around the world.

President Pervez Musharraf sees it as the centre of a campaign to “Talibanise” Pakistan. Spurred on by Washington, he has abandoned a truce with Waziristan’s Islamist guerrillas and ordered his army to root them out.

There are believed to be about 8,000 gunmen – a mix of foreign Al-Qaeda volunteers, Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Islamists and local Waziris whose families have for centuries fought off any attempt to impose outside rule on this area. In modern times, even map-makers have been shot to hide the region’s mysteries from the outside world.

Last week soldiers sealed all the roads into Miran Shah, the provincial capital, occupied the hills around it and fired the first artillery salvo in what Musharraf’s many critics have called a war on his own people.

On Friday morning the army moved into parts of Miran Shah itself after militants blew up government buildings overnight. Most of the 60,000 townspeople are feared trapped, but hundreds of families have fled their mud homes in villages nearby and headed east for the sanctuary of Bannu, a town in the neighbouring North West Frontier province.

I watched last week as some of the 80,000 troops deployed in Waziristan dug in alongside the highway outside Mirali, a small town 10 miles east of Miran Shah. Almost all the checkpoints on this stretch of narrow road were empty. Three lay in rubble because the militants had blown them up. No troops drove along the road. They shuttled to the nearby Afghan border by helicopter.

Occasionally a civilian vehicle appeared, laden with men, women and children and all they could bring with them as they fled – a few cots, a goat or two, a cow and some cooking utensils.

Raza Khan, 45, a farmer, lived with his family in Hakim Khel, a group of five villages with a population of more than 2,500 on the outskirts of Miran Shah. On Thursday afternoon he gathered his nine children and left. All the villages in his area had been all but abandoned, he told me when I found them on the road.

“Anyone who has a little cash is leaving. People can’t sleep in the night. The fighters work during the night. They are always on the move. When they attack the army from any area, the army shell that area. And it kills and injures innocent people,” he said.

“I left my wife and brothers at the house. Left everything over there and brought my children here. I just saved their lives. A woman and her two children were wounded next to our house.”

Noor Abdullah, a businessman in Mirali, said: “People are afraid. We expect war. People are leaving. But the army can’t fight these fighters. They are very well trained.

“People are with them. And they are in thousands. They move from one place to another. They live in the mountains and caves. It’s a difficult area.”

He added: “The situation has became very complicated. It has affected every business. Everyone is suffering. Local officials have disappeared. They are afraid to come onto the streets or even walk. The Taliban don’t spare them.”

This area was formerly policed – at least nominally – by a tribal militia, but they fled after Taliban death threats. The militia’s highway checkpoint in Mirali is now monitored by dozens of soldiers from bunkers they have dug on both sides of the roads to guard against suicide bombers.

I saw two nervous soldiers standing on the road – 500 yards from each other – checking on incoming and outgoing vehicles. This did not appear to deter the militants, however.

A mile or so from the Mirali checkpoint, four Uzbeks – regarded around here as a byword for Al-Qaeda – wielded powerful walkie-talkies inside a parked white Toyota saloon. One of them kept his face hidden when my driver approached them. Further up the road we saw two more Uzbeks using walkie-talkies.

As the refugees arrived in Bannu, Qari Muhammad Abdullah, a senior religious leader in the town, said that Musharraf should be afraid of the wrath of Allah. “People at the top have no idea about people’s suffering because they never experienced it. Force is not the solution. The fighting in Waziristan will kick off civil war in the entire country,” he said.

“Waziristan could have become Baghdad much earlier. We, the clerics, stopped it. It will now become Baghdad if the army carries out operations against its own people.”

Sources in the Pakistani army said: “There has to be a fight. There is no other option. It’s bad, but we have to fight.”

The dangers are only too apparent. Taliban forces in South Waziristan have occupied hilltops and set up their own checkpoints to cut off army supply lines and to prevent government troops taking control.

As the clashes around Miran Shah grew more frequent on Friday night, there were Taliban rocket attacks on new army checkpoints on the main exit routes from the town and looters seized 30 computers from offices and a girls’ school.

Despite the crisis, Waziristan’s most lucrative activity – smuggling – is thriving. The only lorries I saw on the roads were laden with cattle, apparently destined illicitly for Afghanistan. I was told that a local tribal official collects £75 per truck for facilitating the movement of cattle across the border.

Well you are all right.I agree it is very very bad and i also agree that this is something pakistan did create but i think we are missing something here.Its not only pakistan who created them.I think we are forgetting that America was also part in this creation formerly called MUJAHIDEEN who were fighting against Russia at the time.These are the same people with a different name.How can you all just forget America and the CIA were the main creaters of this thing.Did anyone at that time think that if you create a monster then it just cannot vanish.Now we pakistanis have to suffer the consequences.

shahrukh, peshawar, pakistan

"Raza Khan, 45, a farmer, lived with his family in Hakim Khel, a group of five villages with a population of more than 2,500 on the outskirts of Miran Shah. On Thursday afternoon he gathered his nine children and left."

9 children? it's the same in Gaza and that the root of the problem...

erez, jerusalem,

This is very very bad. The pakistanis are facing their nemesis as they try to defeat what they themselves created.

As was seen with the Red mosque, the pakistani Military do not have the arms or the equipment to defeat a small highly motivated guerilla force. In fact I am not sure the Pakistani military want to efeat the Islamic fundamentalists.

I foresee civil war with Islamic fundamentalist getting their hands on pakistan's nuclear arsenal within five years. Very bad very very bad indeed.

Chris linthwaite, Beverley, East Yorkshire

india has shown to the world how such a diverse country (over dozens of languages and hundreds of dialect spoken !!) can promote peace and prosperity of its own people. Remember its a country where South is totally different from north and nothing is common between them except the feeling of 'Nationhood'. It has strived to guarantee equal rights to every one and the judiciary and democracy ( with all its shortcomings ) has promoted 'equality' . Religious extremists wll have to be sidelined by liberals and educated. Pakistan shouls simply follow this.

Shanker, Mumbai, India

Daily tribes are attacking on Pakistan army. The situation is becoming verse to verse day by day specially in Waziristan and surrounding areas. Inocent people have under amense fear. This type of situation should not remain longer becaue many innocent people loosing their precious lives on daily baiss.

ADNAN FARID, Lahore, Pakistan

war will be very bad. pakistan is already crippled due to ethnic, sectarian and political fights, already facing hostile nations on its eastern and western fronts, threat on its northern borders is looming due to establishment of a military base of its western neignbor in a central asian country and transfer of some of its airforce assets there and now the US has imposed conditions on future aid to its fight against terrorism. war in this area will affect the whole world. those who are thinking about containing the tribal people are underestimating their skills and strengths. either its pakistan, US or any one else, it will be a very deadly task to undertake. its not a conventional battle rather its regular army which is fighting with a guerilla force and in such type of battles the guerilla forces are generally at gain. the death score in this area will definitly surpass that of afghanistan and iraq.

Shiraz Mehmud, Karlskrona,

"Imagine the situation were reversed: Do you think George Bush would use the US army to attack Miami if the residents there started threatening terrorist attacks in Pakistan?? "

If civilians in America were planning and executing devastating attacks upon friendly nations such as Pakistan, American authorities, local and federal, would be quick to arrest such groups.

The United States doesn't really have areas which have total autonomy and have been heavily infiltrated by foreign jihadists, however, so I doubt it would turn into a military matter.

The reason why the military was necessary in this case is because this region *has* been infiltrated by radical foreign fighters with violent aims and the existing law enforcement was easily defeated since it had limited ties to the central government.

Michael, Lubbock, United States

I dislike republicans very much, and am from the US. But, there is no effective argument to defend a faith that will not tolerate the existence of other points of view. As long as "JIHAD" is the most important goal of the madrasas in pakistan I feel that in my defense as an open-minded individual the full force of the law should bear down on these types of organizations. The red mosque would stand today if they did not try to impose by force their religion on people of chinese ancestry. The issue here is that Waziristan is attempting to rule other people through the implementation of jihad. There would be no pakistani army presence in waziristan if there was no imposition of taliban values on islamabad.

James Sheridan, Scranton, PA, USA

@Krishna R. Kumar. Punjabis are not the only dominant, rather its the people from Potohar areas who are dominant and they are a mixed up race i.e Punjabis and Pashtoons or Pathans. It is traditional and even in the colonial British Army, they were the ones in majority. The force tackling miscreants in Waziristan areas is mostly locals because they are aware of the area, routes, difficulties and know their people.

And on the question of dismemberment of Pakistan, consider that at the moment its only one country, after its annihilation the think tanks are predicting 5 or 6 parts. Wouldn't it be better to deal with only one rather then dealing with 6 independent states. You cannot change the mentality of people.

The problems faced by Pakistan are not it's own. Its a fact. Pakistanis are paying the cost of supporting Afghan warlords in Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. And now they are paying for supporting the west against the "Islamic terrorists".

Shiraz Mehmud, Karlskrona,

It is not possible to "convert" anyone to a benign (and intellectual) religion like Hinduism or Buddhism (if you want to call them religions) just as it is not possible to "convert" a dunce into a genius.

Karnaa, Bhopal, India

Given the ever permeating dominance of military in Pakistani civilian affairs, it is naive to expect that military will abdicate its grip on political power in favour of civil society on its own volition.

It is, therefore, Benazir Bhutto is quite right in her dialogue with Military brass to facilitate transition of sovergnity to Parliament which is an ardous and tricky job but someone must have to undertake.

On the part of Nawaz Sharif, he sounds bitter rather personal over his removal by the military brass over his sacking of incumbent Chief of Army Staff.

A concerned Pakistani.

Amin, Karachi, Pakistan.

Surely it's evident to anyone that, whatever the rights and wrongs of the situation, a war is going to be disastrous for everyone.

Responsible global leaders need to stand up to morons like Dick Cheney and say "we're not going to start wars which will almost certainly kill hundreds of thousands of innocent people just to allegedly (if you believe Cheney's very flawed logic - the reality is probably the opposite) reduce the risk of terrorist acts which, even in the worst case, would cause considerably less suffering.

Imagine the situation were reversed: Do you think George Bush would use the US army to attack Miami if the residents there started threatening terrorist attacks in Pakistan??

denis, Brussels, Belgium

These tensions are created by only one Axis of Evile which USA, I don't know why all the world is Quite on Exploiting world order and peace by USA.

USA is the Bigest Threat to Peacful world.

Anwar Khan, Afghanistan, Kabul

Anwar Khan, Kabul, Afghanistan

this region will never submit to outsiders... read about its history

arse, bcn, catalunya

Sir,
All bow to the idol of Pax Americana, Manifest Destiny writ large on a global scale. How many empires have sought to raise the egotistical banners of their tribal pride upon the unwilling altar of the Afghan inhanbited lands, from Alexander to the British Raj, and how many more? We have to be pragmatic and avoid the histrionics of hysterical Hollywood, what with their talk of existential threats, every tinpot dictator a new Hitler. A broader and more subtle, less manichean, reading of our history books is necessary, lest we turn our Athens into a fascist Sparta.

SC, London, United Kingdom

Mr. Milner, are you suggesting that the islamist are democrats who will organise elections? Mr. Musharraf did.

l.karremans, heusden,

Before, before and before there was conflict and war in Afganistan. Today there is more conflict and war, definitely different and more lethal than previously. Pakistan, not new to conflict and war, has been sucked-into the mess.
Somewhere I misplaced the reason for this. If it is to track-down and kill or capture one person then this is the most inefficient and expensive process known to history. Other numerous rationales fail to register on the scale of intelligence and common sense.
The only reasons left appear to be 'oil' and/or 'oil pipelines'. I dobt if there is 'oil' and there seem to be many alternatives of 'oil pipelines'. Mabye others have forgotten the reasons for staying there.

Thomas Clark, Portland, Oregon, US

TO ARUN in London:
You are mistaken. God does exist. Check your Bible..

dave desmond, lynchburg virginia, USA

Is 'arun' from London being serious when he/she suggests that we "convert [them? - presumably using deadly force as needed] to a more benign religion [such as] Hinduism, Buddhism, etc." Yes, both of these Eastern religions emphasis peace as a way of life - but so does the Christian New Testament in its surprisingly consistant embrace of non-violence (suprising given the number of writers and methods involved in writing the books of the New Testament). Even the Koran has a good deal of peace-loving advice (along with much Old Testament-style bombast and sabre-rattling from an "angry" Supreme Being ).
The main point is that bad behavior is a much more complicated phenomena than arun implies - and it's certainly not a mere function of which box checked under Religious Preference. How would one explain the appalling butchery of thousands of innocent Muslims by normally peaceful Hindus, shortly after the partition of India/Pakistan in the late 1940's?

L. T. Josserand, Rock Hill, USA / SC

The rule of these men have been an "eye for an eye..." so what's the problem if you give them the dose of their own making? History can give no record that indeed these people can be convinced thru forgiveness, peace and love? Are these two words present in their vocabulary? I don't think so, but HATRED is.

pastor perez, vallejo, US

war is the abject failure of man to communicate.

jay clark, knoxville, tn

Pakistanâ€™s Musharraff is in a catch-22 situation. Either he attacks Al-Qaeda militants and eliminates them or Pakistanâ€™s mentor, the US and allies will do it for him. However, the later option will be highly unpopular and suicidal for Pakistan and its military rulers.

We ignore some basic facts. Punjabies dominate Pakistan's army. Ethnic groups in other regions hate this. Also Islamic religious extremism including jihad nurtured by Pakistani military will be suicidal as events are unfolding.

Religious extremism is counterproductive as noticed by others in history. Pakistanies will eventually get it. Many US think tanks have predicated break up of Pakistan. This civil war points towards that path!

Also, there is nothing like controlled civil war and so except for reporting, though dangerous, there is nothing others can do. But the bad news: these extremists will flock to greener secular democracies for â€œbetter lifeâ€ only to make others' life miserable!
Regards,

Krishna R. Kumar, Udupi, India

Musharaf had been reluctant to tackle the Islamist groups, which have strong support in the Army and in public. Itâ€™s only because of the West pressure that he is tackling them, even now half heartedly. Pakistan Supported the Talibans in the past, so itâ€™s no surprise that they leaving them alone with their Al-Qaeda supporters, free to attack the western forces in Afghanistan. Musharaf is playing a double game, the west should know that, he gets all these multi million dollar US aids for rewarding him for tackling the militants but he threatens them that if he comes too strong on them, then there might be a civil war or worse.

Even if there was a democracy in Pakistan there would still be a major problem with the Islamist groups, as they donâ€™t believe in democracy but enforcing Sharia Law. Pakistan is a major source of Islamic terrorisms, along with Saudi Arabia, where the majority of the suicide bombers in Iraq come from. Both supposed important ally in the â€˜war against terrorâ€™

Abdul Karim, London, England

I am very tired of hearing the rhetoric and hubub " Bin Laden", "War Lords", and the general La-De-Da about this Entire Situation. If " The People" WANT PEACE, then they can pay the Price as the USA has and all of the other Fee Nations of the World. During WW Two, No One came and Gave the World PEACE. The Fight was "ON" and it did not Stop until The Antagonists were Beaten Into the Ground to the point that the only thing Left to do would be to Anniilate the Entire Nazi Machine and ALL of its Supporters. It is my belief that entirely too much Hoopla and Media have caused nothing but More Saber- Rattling. Sometimes you have to Do the things that you do Not Want to Do in order to get the Things You Want ! If Peace is what you Want--- Then Someone will Have to Pay the Price.

John K. Rogers, Corpus Christi, Texas/ USA

The civilized world cannot tolerate sanctuaries from which al Qaeda and its various allies plot to commit mass murder on civilians. To do otherwise, is to allow al Qaeda to call the shots in the world and to give in to evil. Musarraf fights for Pakistan and for the world to be free of lunatic pseudo religious mass murderers who cannot be placated or reasoned with and whom must be destroyed perforce and forthwith.

Chuck, Salt Lake, Utah

I totally agree to what Musharf is doing. Its about time to teach the lesson. These so called Talbans should not even be considerd muslims. If its going to be a civil war let it be, we are not living in a paradise anyway. Lets get rid of then once and for all and have long deserved peace & stability in Pakistan.Please wake up all the terrosit and open your eyes to peace not war.

mustafa raza, dudley, england

The best way is to convert the people to a more benign religion. Hinduism , Buddhism etc. Then there will be no more mosques preaching Jihad and hatred of unbelievrers. As God or Allah both dont exist its pointless wasting our lives trying to impose their silly laws.

arun, London ,

Musharraf is no Mother Teresa. The West refers to him as â€œPresidentâ€ but he came to power in a military coup.
"My enemy's enemy's is my friend."
Deeply flawed thinking.

Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Kanagawa

General Musharraf has been ill-adivised about conducting his
rule in FATA . Until the landing of marines to rescue the North
Alliance from the clutches of Taliban in Dec 2001. The region
now under fire went about her business, as any other region
in Pakistan. Then came the power struggle between the US imposed regime in Kabul headed by a Pashtun, but mainly
controlled by warlords of Northern Alliance. This present war
can only be ended by steadfast Principles and continous dialogues, between the three parties. ie, the governments of
Afghanistan, Pakistan and members of the tribal jirgas.

KHALID RAHIM, Scarborough, Ontario, Canada