The Japanese Prime Minister was facing a bleak political future last night after his party suffered a crushing humiliation at the hands of “angry middle-class voters”.

Although Shinzo Abe pledged to battle on, yesterday’s elections to the Upper House dealt a massive blow to his grip on power and his ability to keep Japan on what he described as the “path of reform”.

Calls for his resignation, from the newly emboldened Opposition and from dissenters within his party, are expected to increase. Severe setbacks in elections to the Upper House have forced two recent Prime Ministers from power. A reshuffle of Mr Abe’s ten-month-old Cabinet is expected by the end of next month.

Mr Abe, the youngest Japanese Prime Minister since the war, admitted responsibility for the drubbing suffered by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). A number of heavy-weights from the ruling party were ejected from constituencies that they had held for many years. It was, LDP officials told The Times, an election in which Japan’s middle classes had their “moment of revenge” for Mr Abe’s perceived lack of leadership, his weak handling of scandal and a “long-term fatigue” with the LDP.

In rural prefectures, where the “pain before gain” reforms that were instigated by Mr Abe’s charismatic predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, have hit hardest, the resentment was at its worst. With one seat still undeclared, the LDP managed to win only 37 of 121 contested seats – close to its worst-ever performance at an Upper House election and far below what was predicted in recent opinion polls. The election also dealt a blow to the LDP’s coalition partner, the New Komeito Party, which shed four of its seats.

Ichiro Ozawa, the president of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and architect of yesterday’s victory, did not join his party’s celebrations. He was said to be resting after the exertions of the campaign. Yukio Hatoyama, the DPJ secretary-general, said: “I can see very clearly that people are deeply dissatisfied with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s politics. I felt there was a great hope among the people to create a two-party system.”

Among the major casualties were two senior figures – Hidenao Nakagawa and Toranosuke Katayama. Mr Nakagawa, once viewed as a possible prime minister, resigned and said that he would take responsibility for a defeat that ranked among the worst suffered by the LDP. He blamed his party’s defeat on the “strong head-winds” of public animosity stirred by a string of scandals and growing economic disparity between urban and rural Japan. Mr Katayama had been secretary-general of the LDP’s Upper House caucus.

Only 121 seats were elected to the largely ceremonial 242-member Upper House, but the vote represented the first significant electoral challenge that Mr Abe has faced since coming to power. Although he still leads Japan through his large majority in the Lower House, this is the first time that the Upper House has slipped from the LDP’s control since 1956.

Major gains for the DPJ took its previous tally of 81 seats in to 108, making it the largest single party in the Upper House. The LDP was left with a total of just 82 seats.

Under its new majority leadership by the DPJ, the Upper House could become a potent opposition to Mr Abe’s reform agenda. Its leader will be selected from within the DPJ, as will the chairmen of dozens of policy committees that play a critical role in Japanese legislation.

DPJ insiders said last night that the party would use its majority “as a matter of urgency” to table a motion of censure against the Government. That combination of DPJ confidence and muscle-flexing, political analysts said, was likely to plunge Japan into an era of legislative deadlock, with necessary reform likely to be blocked “for the sake of opposition”.

Across the country, electoral upsets revealed a longstanding resentment towards the ruling party. In Okinawa the LDP was punished for its perceived lack of strength on the issue of the realignment of US military bases there. The remote, economically depressed island switched its allegiance to the DPJ in what local voters described as “the only message Tokyo will understand”.

In Tokyo one of the five available seats was won by Ryuhei Kawada, a haemophiliac who contracted HIV in the late 1980s at the age of 10 amid a tainted-blood scandal for which many put the blame on government incompetence.

One of the chief criticisms levelled against Mr Abe – even from within his party – is that his Cabinet was not selected for its competence, but instead was a weak-willed caucus of the Prime Minister’s friends. Since September three of his Cabinet ministers have resigned, one of whom commited suicide. The most recent resignation – of Fumio Kyuma – followed the former Defence Minister’s gaffe concerning the atomic bombing of Nagasaki. Nagasaki yesterday switched its allegiance to the DPJ.

On the island of Shikoku, historically the conservative heartland, all four contested seats were wrested from the ruling party. In Ehime one of the longest-serving veterans of the LDP was ousted by a 32-year-old professional footballer who was described by his own campaigners as “not necessarily the right man for the job”.

Strongest of all, according to Takao Toshikawa, a political analyst, was the belief held by voters that this election was a referendum on the reforms of Mr Koizumi. He stepped down as Prime Minister last year after a five-year battle to destroy the old guard of the LDP and its grassroots support machinery, which included local postmasters and agricultural unions. Though many welcomed his nononsense approach to economic and structural reforms, others believed that they created a deep chasm between rich and poor.

Yoichi Masuzoe, one of the few LDP members who defended his seat last night, said: “There are both bright and shadowy sides to Koizumi’s reforms. Today we saw the dark side.”

Power plays

–– The Japanese parliament is called the Diet and consists of the House of Representatives (the lower house) and the House of Councillors (the upper house)

–– Members of the House of Representatives are elected every four years whereas those of the House of Councillors are elected every six years, with one half of its number elected every three years

–– The House of Representatives is considered more powerful because, in the case of treaties, the budget and the selection of the prime minister, the House of Councillors cannot veto its legislation

–– The House of Representatives can also override an upper house decision to block one of its bills so long as it provides a two-thirds majority in favour of overturning the block

–– The minimum age for a member of the House of Councillors is 30, five years older than the House of Representatives minimum

*Sources: CIA World Factbook, japan-guide.com

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