Although the state of emergency has not yet been imposed — an announcement may come this evening — people in Pakistan are already asking whether this will help General Musharraf to regain control of the country or whether it will deepen his problems.

I think there are already indications that it will not be well received at all by the public and that a state of emergency will take General Musharraf's popularity to its lowest bottom. Suspending civil rights, placing restrictions on the Supreme Court and limiting the freedoms of expression and assembly all affect Pakistan's fundamental laws and will not be clear sailing for the President.

The move is considered by many people an act of desperation in Musharraf's battle with the Supreme Court, which, in its decision to reinstate the Chief Justice, whom General Musharraf tried to sack, and its release of an opposition leader after three years in jail, has shown itself to be increasingly proactive since the beginning of the year.

Now there are indications that the Supreme Court will closely examine the provisions for the state of emergency and could even challenge its legality. The court has become a focus for popular opposition to General Musharraf and many people hope it never uphold this decision.

The Government argues that a state of emergency can be imposed when Pakistan is “threatened by war or external aggression, or by internal disturbance beyond” its control. There are problems, no doubt, with disturbances in the North West Province and the failure of the agreement with tribal elders in Waziristan, but if these were the reasons for the state of emergency, why did General Musharraf not declare it earlier?

Instead, everything he does is being seen as an attempt to survive in power. But General Musharraf has an added problem: there is no one else to fight his corner. He is completely politically isolated. The Pakistan People’s Party, of the former Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto, with whom General Musharraf formed a coalition last month, has been one of his strongest critics in recent days.

The President has also been weakened by reports from Washington and the campaign speeches of Barack Obama suggesting that the US would be willing to carry out anti-terrorism operations within Pakistan's borders. General Musharraf's critics say that he has gone too far in his alliance with America and has got little in return.

For many people in Pakistan, the spectacle of a military ruler trying hard to cling on to power is a familiar one and it appears that General Musharraf, after eight years, is coming full circle.

He has always faced opposition but what is new is the popular participation, a genuine groundswell against his rule. General Musharraf is now very, very unpopular, near the bottom of a decline that started with his decision to take on the Supreme Court, a battle from which he could never recover. The critical thing for a military ruler is to avoid popular demonstrations, because if the military starts to think that the anger against General Musharraf could turn into anger against the army, senior generals may well take General Musharraf aside and say: "You have done well, but now it is time to go."

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