President Musharraf raised fresh questions about how long he could remain in power in Pakistan after backing down yesterday on his threat to impose emergency rule.

Facing fierce opposition from the public, the ruling coalition and the United States, General Musharraf abandoned the move even as he confronted the biggest political crisis of his career.

Declaring a state of emergeny would have given him sweeping powers to limit the role of the courts, restrict civil liberties and postpone parliamentary elections due by the end of the year. But a government spokesman said that the President had rejected the idea after consulting his coalition partners and top civil and military aides. “He was being ill-advised by some people. He has decided against declaring the emergency. Elections are the President’s priority,” Mohammed Ali Durrani, the Information Minister, said.

General Musharraf, who seized power in a coup in 1999, wants to be re-elected by Parliament in October and to stay on as head of the army, a role that he says is necessary to stop Pakistan falling into the hands of Islamic extremists. But he faces an unprecedented challenge to his authority, with moderate Pakistanis outraged by his attempt to sack a chief justice, and Taleban loyalists in open rebellion along the Afghan border.

The United States is also growing increasingly impatient with his failure to stop Taleban and al-Qaeda gunmen from making incursions into Afghanistan from the lawless tribal areas of northwest Pakistan. Mr Durrani said that the idea of emergency rule had been discussed because of external and internal threats to the country, which marks the 60th anniversary of its independence on Tuesday. But most analysts said that the proposal reflected General Musharraf’s determination to stay in power for another five years despite the growing calls for him to step down.

They also said that he backed down because of the vociferous reactions of Pakistani civil society, investors and the international community — especially the US. Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, spoke to General Musharraf by phone for more than 15 minutes. According to diplomatic sources she advised the President against emergency rule.

President Bush later pointedly urged General Musharraf, a key ally in the War on Terror, to hold free and fair elections. “My focus in terms of the domestic scene there is that he have a free and fair election, and that’s what we’ve been talking to him about,” Mr Bush said at a White House news conference. But he was also careful to respect Pakistan’s sovereignty after Islamabad’s furious reaction to calls for unilateral US strikes against al-Qaeda on Pakistani soil.

The suggestion of emergency rule also provoked strong reactions from Pakistan’s opposition parties, Bar associations and rights groups, who threatened to take to the streets. The Karachi stock market dropped 600 points because of panic selling by foreign and local investors.

Another possible reason for General Musharraf’s capitulation was the fear that the move could be declared illegal by the Supreme Court, which has emerged as a powerful check on his authority. Last month the court dealt a big blow to the President’s credibility when it reinstated Ifitkhar Mohammed Chaudhry, the Chief Justice, whom he had suspended. Mr Chaudhry is thought to have irked General Musharraf by making several rulings against the Government.

His dismissal prompted massive protests by lawyers, rights groups and opposition supporters outraged by the blatant violation of the independence of the judiciary. Justice Chaudhry has repeatedly given warning that he will not allow any curbs on fundamental civil rights enshrined in the Constitution. He was expected to scrutinise the provisions for a state of emergency.

Under the Constitution, the President may declare a state of emergency if it is deemed that the country’s security is threatened by war, external aggression or by internal disturbance. Most legal experts say that the current situation does not justify such action.

Emergency rule might also have given political ammunition to rivals such as the exiled former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, who have signalled their intention to return home to contest the elections. Mr Sharif still officially heads his faction of the conservative Pakistan Muslim League party, while Ms Bhutto, who lives in self-imposed exile, is the leader of the centrist Pakistan People’s Party.

Last night Ms Bhutto expressed relief that General Musharraf had held back. “I was very worried,” she said. “I thought the imposition of emergency would be a retrograde step. It would also lead to internal instability because the political parties and the legal community were bound to protest.”

Presidential scenarios

1: Ditch uniform and hold free and fair legislative elections before seeking reelection himself from the new Parliament. The military and most opposition parties would support him and he would have a good chance of reelection

2: Step down and hand over power to the chairman of the Senate who would oversee parliamentary elections. This is the demand of hardline opposition

3: Continue to hold dual power, get reelected as uniform-wearing President by current Parliament. Opposed by almost all political parties and risks a mass movement that could lead to him being ousted by the generals

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