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From The Times

August 13, 2007

Britain’s frontline soldiers have 1 in 36 chance of dying on Afghan battlefield

Fran Yeoman

Britain’s frontline troops in Afghanistan are being killed at such a rate that, were it to continue, one in 36 would not survive a six-month tour of the country.

In Iraq, as many as one in 100 of all service personnel could die during a six-month stint if the death rate there continues as it has in the past month.

The Ministry of Defence confirmed that a serviceman from the 1st Battalion The Royal Anglian Regiment was killed on Saturday during an attack on a patrol base in Helmand province. His death brings to seven the number of British troops in Afghanistan killed in action or from wounds sustained in battle since July 12. This is compared with a monthly average of 0.7 since the conflict began in November 2001. All seven fatalities were members of a 1,500-strong frontline force primarily charged with fighting the Taleban.

If the death toll continued at this rate, 42 battle-group personnel would be killed in the next six months and a frontline soldier embarking on a typical tour of duty in the country would stand a one in 36 chance of being killed.

In Iraq, five personnel on frontline duties have died in the last month. If such a rate were to continue, 30 personnel from the roughly 1,500-strong “battle group” in Iraq would be expected to die in the next six months, giving a fatality rate of one in 50.

But as British troops in the southern Basra region begin to scale down their patrols in preparation for the planned handover of control to Iraqi forces this year, it is not only the “battle group” troops who are finding themselves in the firing line.

Last month three RAF men were killed in a rocket attack on their base at Basra airport, where British troops will soon be concentrated. A fourth man, Lance Corporal Timothy Flowers, died when the Basra Palace base was fired upon two days later.

New figures released this weekend reveal that the two bases have been hit by more than 300 rocket and mortar attacks in the past two months, more than the previous four years put together.

With all types of service personnel vulnerable to this kind of attack, the overall death toll of nine for last month, out of 5,500 troops based in Iraq, would mean that approximately one in 102 of all personnel would be expected to be killed during a six-month tour of duty.

The average number of troops killed every month in action or from wounds sustained in battle in Iraq since the invasion in March 2003 is 2.5.

Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, said that it was imperative that the Government should urgently review its policies in both Iraq and Afghanistan “before the death toll rises further”.

He said: “These statistics are deeply saddening. Above all because they represent personal tragedies for hundreds of British families. But they are also an indictment of a government which has no clear idea how to get British Forces home without further heavy loss of life.”

Patrick Mercer, a Conservative MP and a former commanding officer of The Worcestershire and Sherwood Foresters, who have lost three men in Afghanistan, said that the Army faced a severe challenge. “Battalions are now taking very serious casualties – where every man will know every single person that is killed. This is an experience that the Army as a whole hasn’t had since World War Two,” he said. “The penalty you have to pay is that men will be extremely tired emotionally and physically, which is in no way a reflection on them. Six months is a long time to spend on an operation when you are suffering these kinds of losses.

“Meanwhile, three battalions have recently been disbanded and cuts mean that you have a smaller pool of men to send to do these very difficult tours. That means they will come round more and more frequently.”

A spokesman for the MoD said that it was “oversimplistic” to draw conclusions from a monthly death toll.

“Fatalities over a short period of time do not provide an accurate reflection of the overall death rates of British troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. These numbers represent people’s lives and should not be taken out of context,” he said.

“UK personnel have performed magnificently during a prolonged period of extensive operations. They have put their lives on the line and we cannot pay high enough tribute to the job they are doing.”

The MoD said that the soldier who died on Saturday was killed when his patrol base, northeast of Sangin in Helmand, had come under attack from small-arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades.

The injured soldier, who has not been named, was taken by helicopter to Camp Bastion but did not survive. Five other soldiers received minor injuries in the attack.

On Friday, Private Tony Rawson, 27, was killed when his patrol was attacked by Taleban fighters on its way to check a local irrigation project.

Four servicemen were killed last week in Iraq, bringing the death toll so far this year to 41. This is compared with the 53 who died during the whole of 2003, the year of the invasion and fall of Baghdad.

A YouGov poll published this weekend found that 53 per cent of British voters believe that UK troops are failing in Iraq. Three quarters want them brought home immediately or within the next year. Only 6 per cent felt that Britain is winning in Afghanistan.

There our boys and soldiers that are dying out there at least give them some credit-I'm a mere Civilian but come on-show a little bit of fairness to these guys and women that are laying down their lives for our beloved country and the small fragments of the good things we can still hold on to....

Colin James Watling, Kessingland, Lowestoft, United Kingdom

I hate this whole thing its all alot of trouble for good and bad reasons, but what do you do when a soldier comes home and hes traumatised from the experience i hear him screaming in his sleep thru nightmares and he can get hesterically drunk and think that wetting himself for fun is ok and normal to do to hide the embarrasement from when he was in afghan i know theres worse things out there, but i havent seen it and i wouldnt want to, but seeing this is unbareable and hard to cope with! I hope this is all worth it coz if it isnt god knows what sort of world this will be in years to come.

Danielle, London, UK

Blair and Bush have no conscience otherwise this war would have never began. Many people don't care about the military personnell, pay them no attention, which is easy when a soldiers death is given 15 seconds halfway through the news. Not only are our girls and boys being killed and injured but loosing friends. My son and daughter are in the RAF, my son is attending the funeral of a friend today who was killed in Iraq, he is to return there soon and my 20 yr old daughter is off to Afghanistan again in the same week. No sleep for our family again for another four months!

Kathie Richards, Merseyside, UK

So if you take in to account that for every soldier killed there are three severely wounded it can truly be said that:

The British Army is being decimated in Afghanistan.

Which was obvious to anyone but an idiot right from the beginning.

Clark, Gen., Swit.

War is hell, casualties are inevitable. The British and their allies are dealing with 14th century barbarians backed up by modern day terrorists bent on spreading murder and mayhem within and without the borders of Afghanistan and Iraq against the wishes of most of those countries native populations, all in the name of a peaceful religion, a religion that has been hijacked by criminals, zealots and terrorists.
Fortunately their own casualties are many times those of our own forces with our own forces only to happy to help them on their way to their heaven at every oportunity.
Without our Armed Forces deployed to these troubled regions the barbarian hordes would be able to carry out even more acts of terrorism on our own native soil.
Do you really want to have to go to pray when the imam calls you five times a day? Do you really want your womenfolk to wear the veil? Because without these casualties that is what you are looking at sometime in the future.

Paul, Swindon, UK

It's not that we have lost the will to fight..Our soldiers are still as brave and fierce as they always have been. What the families and friends of serving armed soldiers / airman / sailors are fed up with is the inadequate supplies of arms and men..the living conditions that these men have to put up with. This is down to previous governements and the gutless MoD ..There is also a growing ignorance of people in general who are more interested in reading about celebrities in the papers than they are of our services fighting for their lives..Celebrities sell papers and make the news ..wars don't....

kirk, Rotherham, UK

Very few, if any English people wanted this war/invasion. Blair was lead into this fiasco by the semi- illiterate Bush with his delusions of grandeur and ill-informed civil service. Both Bush and Blair then conspired to spin the information towards "WMD." Brown will now conspire with Bush to insist that "the job must be done." Many more military personnel will be killed - sorry to say this, but our military will soon be dying at 1 or more per day, and this rate will increase as the campaign continues. If the REAL battle is against Islam, or Al Queada, or religious fundamentalists, or whomever it is, then a more effective campaign can be waged through economic and immigration controls, together with enhanced dedication to national standards.

paul allen, high littleton, bristol,

I was never in favour of the Iraq adventure, but USA and UK broke it. It's up to them to fix it. Stop the whining and just do it, one way or the other.

Roger, Brisbane, Australia

TO: Alex, seattle, USA

" I simply cannot believe how quickly the Brits have lost the will to fight. And I don't mean the British troops, I'm talking about the British people."

Alex, there is more than a thousand years of glorious British history that proves that the British people are not lacking in courage, nor determination, nor the will to fight and win...when there is a worthwhile cause.

This contrived war in Iraq has been, and continues to be, EXCEEDINGLY profitable to the "right" people...but it neither serves nor protects the interests of the British, American nor Iraqi people as a whole.

Why should poor British soldiers die...so that the super rich can become...super, super, super rich?

Arthur Bruce, Scottsdale, usa/Arizona

" WHO LIVES..IF BRITAIN DIES?"

To: John, Newcastle, England

"People no longer believe in the greatness of Britain due to years of multi-culturism and labours policy of anti-establishment and anti-unionism. If you remove or devalue the "Great" from Britain and the glory of what she has achieved over the centuries then the public will cease to believe in that concept."

John, yes, Britain has been harmed by some small men who lacked vision, character and patriotism. Those who should have led have not only failed to lead, but have, all too often, been very bad examples to the Nation and to its children. Consequently, many people have lost the pride, confidence and fire that every British man, woman and child should feel in him/herself and in Britain. This must, and I believe WILL change: There are still many men and women of strong character and great nobility in Britain. Their time is now!

As my father once wrote: "Who lives...if Britain dies?"

Garth Rex, Glendale Heights, USA

Mike From Toronto,

Well put, my friend! I agree 1000%. I simply cannot believe how quickly the Brits have lost the will to fight. And I don't mean the British troops, I'm talking about the British people. Can you believe some of these comments up here? "We can't win" "Lets leave now" "We've already lost" Saddening.

Alex, Seattle, USA

So the 'Retreat To Afghanistan' option favoured by Gordon Brown has now become more of a death trap for UK soldiers than Iraq. Out of the Iraqi frying-pan into the Afghan fire.

Iraq is a failure, Afghanistan is a failure, but still Labour ministers are convinced that all is well. They argue that things are still on tract in these countries. It fools no one.

Lions led by donkeys come to mind here, but even donkeys have a mind for self-preservation much more than this brainless bunch of Labour ministers and MPs

Malcolm, Dundee,

I read that the British Government is adamant that our servicemen and women will remain in Iraq and Afganistan until the job is done,apparently regardless of the number of body bags coming back to the UK every week.
The blas'e mentality of these politicians beggers belief. Perhaps a solution to speed up the withdrawel of our service personnel, would be to take 25% of the current governing labour party, and put them in uniform and send them to these awful,awful places, this might just alert the DESICION MAKERS as to the critical (and useless) situation on the ground.
Surly a cost benefit analysis of these conflicts would proove what a worthless cause we are involved in out there.

Les Dalton, Charmant, France

The MoD make me sick, all they think about is money.....If the 'war' in Afghanistan is to continue...We need to do several things...Pull out of Iraq, the Iraqis no longer want us there. Increase the manpower for the Armed Forces to at least double that to what it is now..(even if it means increasing taxes to pay for them).You get what you pay for..!!...and finally ensure our soldiers across all 3 Services are paid handsomely. It pains me to think that they are paid a pittance when they are putting their lives on the line.

kirk, Rotherham, UK

When the media report Iraq and Afghanistan on the "corpse by corpse" basis, give very little coverage to the overall aims and nature of the campaign and the reconstruction efforts, blow any ill-treatment claims completely out of proportion, and fail to mention the overall courage and gallantry displayed by our troops (certainly as reflected by recent gallantry awards), is it any surprise that "53 per cent of British voters believe that UK troops are failing".

If World War II had been reported in the same relentlessly negative fashion by June 1940 no doubt "53 per cent of British voters" would probably be pressing for an accomadation with that nice Mr. Hitler.

Peter FitzGerald-Morris, Rochester, England

The New Labour government committed troops to Afghanistan while failing to appreciate the risks (remember Reid's comments about not a single shot being fired), failing to equip the troops properly, and not providing any sustained effort to support their morale in the British press (compared with Labour's efforts to make us feel guilty about global warming, for example). In all probability New Labour cannot remember why our troops are there. Our troops are lions led by self serving sheep.

Tony G, Harrogate, UK

You say that we are planning to hand over control to Iraqi forces.

We are not in control.

Have I missed something?

Jim Cavanagh, Chorley, Lancashire, UK

And still no government health warnings on army recruitment adverts or posters. Where is the HSE?

Steve P, Leeds, England

What is this but a facesaving exercise. No war will be won, no hearts won over to the western cause, it is a total waste of human life. We will leave Iraq , no matter what turmoil is left, and after a bloody civil war it will probably fall under Iran's influence. Russia could not control Afghanistan with hundreds of thousands of troops, and we will just squander our soldiers lives by staying there. This whole Iraq/Afghanistan debacle was ill-conceived and ill-motivated, mostly to assuage the vanity of two men. Bush bully boy wanted someone to pay for 9/11, and Blair could not resist the vanity of strutting on the world stage. It has increased terror in the world, increased ethnic tensions and violence at home, and is costing the lives of good men. History will judge both these men severely.

Dudley Holley, Thorpe Bay, UK

In the early months of 2003, I and many like me were arguing that the ratio of coalition soldiers killed would escalate rapidly. These figures confirm that.

But do not forget the wounded. And by that I mean the seriously wounded. We recently visited a garden centre. Wheeled through as we watched was an Iraq wounded veteran. Both his legs up to the knee, and both arms up to the elbows had been blown off. There are many like him, both in Iraq and Afghanistan.

To be acurate, the Times reporters would do well to investigate this aspect of the casualty figures.

Peter Biddulph, Lickey, Worcestershire, England

It seems strange that US casualties are lessening whilst British troops have ever increasing death rates.
The move of our troops to Helmand province, at the request of the US, has lessened US casualties whilst seriously increasing our own, particularly when they are not supplied with effective equipment, available only to the Americans.
Once more Tony Blair pulled off another coup for his old pal Blair before departing into the sunset.
It is, without any doubt, a battle and not a 'reconstruction effort' as advanced by our politicians. On that basis alone they should be withdrawn.

trevorjd, Torbay, UK

Just ask the Russians what had happened to them, when they tried to 'occupy' Afghanistan before you.

Abdul Ali, Tehran, Iran

This rate is much higher than for the Amerisans. This brings to mind an interview with a Taleban commander. To paraphrase his comments: 'He hated the British much more intensely than the Americans. This was the first time that America invaded their country, every one is entitled to one error. But for the British this was their third time.'

Yes the Brits should have learned their lesson by now, one would have thought. Or is this just a little nostalgia for good ole days of empire.

syvanen, Davis, CA, USA

Why are our troops still in Iraq? They cannot win the war and they cannot help the Iraqi government win what is essentially a civil war. They are doing nothing more than provide target practice for the various Iraqi factions.

Andrew Brown, Derby, uk

A situation as bad as this merits a full-time Secretary of State for Defence, surely? Presumably the troops are sitting around getting mortared in Basra because Des Browne, instead of thinking up defence policy, is too busy dealing with Labour's problems in Scotland.

Michael, Brighton, England

Once again the media provides a distorted view so that attention grabbing headlines can be made. Yes it has been a bad month, but overall the true average will have hardly changed. What sort of country are we living in where the media always have to concentrate on the negative and if there is a positive, then just ignore it or distort things to make a negative. As always, be it troops, sports persons, pop stars or tycoons the media cannot wait to destroy reputations and years of hard work. Is it any wonder we are living in such a depressing country, the media makes it so. Oh for the simple times when reporting the whole truth was more important than headlines.

M Chilvers, Middlesbrough, England

Pull the troops out now!!! My God I'm glad that I don't have all those deaths on my conscience like Blair and Bush....or do they??

Andy Burrows, Glasgow, UK

Sounds like good odds to me!

Prisspants McKissboys, Oxford, England

"Why are our troops still in Iraq?"

Because Tony Blair / Gordon Brown and George Bush need a US-friendly government in place in Iraq to sell them cheap oil.

What, did you think that we were there to 'liberate' the Iraqis? If so, then you, my friend, are a victim of our lying, cheating leaders and their totally fake propoganda.

Pete, Cov,

The UK has to worry about only one major city in Iraq. ONE! A city that is not divided ethnically or religiously, but is comprised of only Shiites. In other words, there is no sectarian violence in Basra; only Shiite militias. With a death rate of only 2.5 per month and a grand total of 41 deaths this entire year, the British people and military appear to be crying over spilled milk.
Meanwhile, the American military has 162,000 troops in Iraq and are responsible for every other region outside of Basra. Most of these areas are very ethnically and religiously divided, resulting in great amounts of sectarian violence. America is losing 100 troops and $10 billion per month in Iraq. All this with no plans to pull out anytime soon. The troop surge (which was 6x larger than the entire British presence) is actually starting to work.
I suggest the UK toughen up or they will never be seen as a strong force again. America was stupid to start this, but at least they are doing everything to win.

Mike, Toronto, Canada

A spokesman for the MoD said that it was â€œoversimplisticâ€ to draw conclusions from a monthly death toll.

I'm sure the MOD didn't tell the Defence Secretary that his planned defence cuts were "oversimplistic" in their approach, given current operational requirements.

Ask any soldier, of any rank (off the record for the Officers) and they all tell you the same thing. Asked to do way to much, with way to little.... but maybe that's just me being 'oversimplistic'.

You can just about here the patronising Prime Minister of the day saying, "thanks for the good work, please keep it up, we're all awfully proud of you......."

Simon, Cape Town,

Forget God, Queen and country; try John Maynard, the petro-dollar and cheap gas for in the US of A. British troops in Iran are dying to protect a greedy, over-consumptive US life style, and the sooner everybody flashes to reality the better.

Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Japan

I find G Fincham's comment unsuprising; I surmise she/he is both in support of this war without end and can justify whatever happens regardless. I doubt this person has military experience either. Due to a lack of cohesive strategy towards a definable solution (for one to work whatever direction unavailable resources would be needed ) the Armed Forces are embroiled in withering confrontation for a long period of time. Understaffed, therefore overly deployed, the cumaltive effect is utter demoralisation. For the record, with a lack of front line in this modern morass we call a war, the troops - much smaller in number than British Expeditionary forces have been in the past - spend more time per soldier now in the line of fire. If their nerves are shot, can you blame them? They don't even have the praise and support of their nation to fall back on when they return - you'll find no heroe's welcome where I live, a Garrison town of long standing. National Service could save our nation

T Harris, Colchester,

The sad truth is that the majority of people do NOT admire the Armed Forces. The military is merely "tolerated" by Labour Govts and despised by leftists (the very people they appeal to for votes), it is certainly not embraced or promoted. Hence, the publics lack of faith and support. If the Govt does not believe in the armed forces then they will never go out of their way to show genuine public support for them. It is often said that people need something to believe in, something to identify themselves with. People no longer believe in the greatness of Britain due to years of multi-culturism and labours policy of anti-establishment and anti-unionism. If you remove or devalue the "Great" from Britain and the glory of what she has achieved over the centuries then the public will cease to believe in that concept. Remove that faith and they will no longer believe in the cause for they have ceased to understand the importance of sacrifice or believing in something greater than "self".

John, Newcastle, England

I can still remember John Reid saying he hoped the Afghan mission could be accomplished, "without firing a shot." Nobody with even a passing knowledge of Afghanistan could have honestly expected the Taliban to just roll over and accept a foreign occupation.

As well as woefully underestimating the opposition, this government has starved the army of the resources it needs to get the job done. It's a national disgrace that our troops have been sent on such an important mission without adequate manpower, equipment or political support.

When Gordon Brown was Chancellor he didn't seem to want to spend anything on the army (though he found billions to waste on the pointless strike fighter project and two aircraft carriers). He prefered to disband regiments, reduce training, and cut equipment. And now our troops are paying the price for his miserliness.

So Gordon, now you're in charge, what are you going to do? Time is passing and people are dieing, so do something now!

Ian, London, UK

Bring our boys and girls home from Iraq NOW.

Marlene, Pendle, England, UK

IRRATIONAL INSANITY Time will not change the irrational nature of our irrational presence in an irrational war. Insanity, they say, is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. There is absolutely nothing for Britain to "win" in this misadventure: There is no "great and noble cause" in Iraq that is worth the life or limb of even a single British soldier. So why are British troops dying?

Gordon Brown should get British troops out before it becomes "his" war. That won't take very long. More importantly, he should get British troops out because they should never have been sent there in the first place!

In the end, the only people who will determine the future of Iraq are the Iraqi people themselves.

This war will end just like Viet Nam. It is the same war as Viet Nam..being fought for the same reasons.
It's just being fought in a different place.

Garth Strong, San Diego, USA/CAL

Apart from the government and perhaps most of David Cameron's Shadow Front Bench, how many people in this country want us to remain not only in Iraq but also in Afghanistan.Des Browne and those advising him at the Ministry of Defence appear to believe that because Afghanistan has had three decades of war and instability then we must stay there for a similar period in order to reverse the chaos that prompted the unforgiving Taliban to end the resulting political vacuum.

Yet even with 37 other countries with active military personnel in the country we have not been able to prevent yet more attacks on our slowly depleting armed forces which surely cannot go on haemorrhaging fatalities at the current rate.It only requires the families of dead and injured soldiers and airmen to start a nationwide campaign to get our troops out of this endless theatre of death and destruction for the politicians to realise that the end date must be measured in months, not years

BILL JACKSON, NOTTINGHAM, uk

Soldiers are very aware that their (underpaid) job carries the risk of death and they accept that stoically. But they expect to be equiped with the best available vehicles and weaponry, to be given the time between tours to get their breath, retrain and see their families - non of which is being given to them by an irresponsible government who concentrate on saving money at whatever cost to their dedicated military. And in doing so further weaken them.

Most damaging of all is the feeling that there is no hope at all of achieving anything real in either Iraq or Afghanistan and that this is well known to the politicians. The steady toll of wasted lives is the price only of trying to keep egg of the faces of our Government.

Peter Kirwan, Montpeyroux 34, France

With our armed forces working on so many different fronts while continuing to be be underfunded and barely supported by the goverment is there any surprise that personal are leaving at such an alarming rate. Why would a young man or woman decide that the armed forces could offer decent career prospects when they see how the personal get treated. How much is the job the armed forces do really appreciated??

Corey, Glasgow,

Try quoting some casualty figures from the Somme, D Day or Market Garden as comparisons. Might put this 'story' in perspective.

G Fincham, Norwich, UK

Why are our troops still in Iraq? We can't win the war and we can't help the Iraqi government which is divided and effectively at war with itself! All we are doing is providing target practice for the insurgents and shia militias.

Andrew Brown, Derby, uk

I agree with the view that the army is failing in Iraq, but I believe if the forces were allowed to go into this field of war with the correct aggression and mindset then things would be cleaned up a lot faster. Instead, the armed forces know that every move they make will be monitored and reported on by the worlds press and civil rights groups.

We should allow our boys to fight this war, for that's what it is, with all the vigour and aggression that we allowed the forces of WWII to act under. Its a strange scene of war when we consider 2.5 casualties a month as too great a loss. If that is truly the case we should pull out now.

Jim Stuart-Young, Shanghai, China