President Musharraf’s hopes of clinging to power received a severe blow yesterday when Pakistan’s newly emboldened Supreme Court paved the way for his two most powerful adversaries to make swift returns from exile.

Nawaz Sharif, the former Prime Minister, is expected to land in Pakistan within days after the dramatic ruling by the Supreme Court. “It is the beginning of the end of Musharraf,” said Mr Sharif, who is determined to campaign against the man who ousted him in a 1999 military coup.

Mr Sharif is likely to be joined quickly by Benazir Bhutto, another former Prime Minister in exile. The pair have buried their political differences to lead efforts to unseat the general.

Outside the court hundreds of supporters of Mr Sharif’s secular, conservative Pakistan Muslim League danced as they celebrated. “Go Musharraf, go!”, and “Musharraf is a dog” they chanted. One slaughtered six goats in celebration in front of the white marble court complex, leaving the road smeared in blood.

The presence in Pakistan of Mr Sharif and Ms Bhutto will hamper General Musharraf’s efforts to win another five-year term from parliament next month. He wants to continue serving as a uniform-wearing head of state despite his earlier pledge to step down from his role as chief of army staff. There is already growing dissent within the ruling coalition as General Musharraf faces difficulties on several fronts.

One of the most serious threats to him comes from the new assertiveness of the Supreme Court, which was high-lighted by yesterday’s decision. Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, the Chief Justice, declared that Mr Sharif and his family had “an inalienable right to return to the country as citizens of Pakistan”.

Mr Justice Chaudhry, who recently defeated General Musharraf’s attempts to remove him from office, warned the Government not to hamper or obstruct Mr Sharif’s return. Analysts suggest that the Supreme Court could use its independence to block General Musharraf’s efforts to win a new term.

A legal battle is looming about whether the coming election is legal. The constitution bars the holding of dual offices and the Supreme Court is set to take up a constitutional petition challenging his candidacy while he remains chief of army staff.

General Musharraf suggested yesterday that he understood which way the politicals winds were blowing. Speaking before the court ruling he said: “There is a requirement for forgiving, forgetting the past and political reconciliation is the need of the hour. This is what I am striving for.”

Mr Sharif welcomed yesterday’s court decision as a landmark. “It is a victory for democracy and defeat for military rule,” he declared at a press conference in London, where he has been living for the past year. He ruled out any negotiations with General Musharraf, saying that his return would bring an end to the military-led Government.

Mr Sharif, who was Prime Minister from 1990 to 1993, and from 1997 to 1999, was sentenced to life in prison after he was overthrown. He and his family were later sent into exile to Saudi Arabia after an agreement which - according to the Government - barred him from politics for ten years. Mr Sharif, who could face outstanding corruption charges, denied any such deal.

The court decision deepened uncertainty in Pakistan, where there were already clear signs of General Musharraf losing his credibility.

The worsening law and order situation and rise in Islamic militancy in borderland and North West Frontier Province has further eroded his authority.

General Musharraf was on the verge of declaring state of emergency last week before being stopped by the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, and opposition within his own civilian allies. Senior cabinet ministers, however, do not rule out the possibility of such an step in the future if the political stability was threatened.

General Musharraf has the option of imposing martial law but it would certainly be contested on the streets. That could also bring the military into a direct conflict with the people.

Most analysts agree that there has been a dramatic shift in popular opinion against the nation’s military. This is likely to step up pressure on the Army, not just General Musharraf, to get out of politics and shift political power to a civilian government.

Sharif and Bhutto: return of the rivals

Nawaz Sharif came to prominence as a politician in the 1980s

—He reached the position of Chief Minister under a previous military regime, that of General Zia-ul-Haq

—In 1990 he became Prime Minister but was dismissed by the President before the end of his five-year term

—He returned to power in 1997 and made controversial constitutional changes including the removal of the President’s ability to dismiss him. He also came into conflict with Pakistan’s Supreme Court and Army

—In 1998 he ordered Pakistan’s first nuclear weapons test. A year later General Musharraf ousted him in a bloodless coup

—In 2000 Mr Sharif was exiled and the coup legitimised by the Supreme Court. He was found guilty of corruption in his absence and banned from politics for life

Benazir Bhutto has twice served as Prime Minister, 1988-1990 and 1993-1996. In both cases she was dismissed for alleged corruption

—She is the daughter of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was Prime Minister in the early 1970s and was overthrown and executed by General Zia-ul-Haq

—She was initially seen by many as a welcome change from the male-dominated political cycle of corruption and military takeovers

—Her husband, Asif Zardari, has been tried 18 times on criminal and corruption charges but has never been proved guilty

—Ms Bhutto was convicted for failing to appear before the Supreme Court in 1999. The verdict was overturned and tapes since uncovered revealed that Sharif had pressured the court for a conviction

Sources: UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office; Times database

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