The lawns are newly mown, the fairy lights are hung and the walls are daubed with freshly painted slogans welcoming the return of Nawaz Sharif to his Punjab country residence.

There is, however, an air of unease about the estate of the exiled former Prime Minister, who will try to re-enter Pakistan on Monday, eight years after he was toppled by General Musharraf in a bloodless coup.

A dozen security guards patrol the entrance to his 50-acre (20 hectare) complex of four villas, surrounded by farmland, an hour’s drive from Lahore. Plainclothed government agents lurk indiscreetly on a road nearby.

Jamil Ahmad Manj, a member of Mr Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League party, explains the tension as he hands out cheques to party workers preparing posters for their leader’s return.

Bhutto was killed by bomb blast

The team from the Metropolitan Police’s Counter Terrorism Command have backed the claim that Benazir Bhutto was not shot

BACKGROUND

• Pakistan in turmoil as ‘martial law’ imposed

• Bhutto escapes as bombers kill 126

• Timeline: Pakistan's period of turmoil

• The man out to oust a President

• Internal crisis gives Pakistan reason for hope

“Last night the police came to my village to arrest me,” says the 37-year-old lawyer. “Luckily, I was not there. They will do anything to stop Sharif sahib from returning.”

Mr Sharif’s party said yesterday that police had detained more than 1,300 workers, raising fears that their leader faces arrest the instant he arrives.

The Government has been making other preparations for his return. Yesterday it reopened a corruption case against Mr Sharif, and a court ordered the arrest of his younger brother, Shahbaz, who intends to travel with him.

Authorities are reported to be planning to whisk Mr Sharif straight to a 16th-century military fort at Attock, 40 miles (64km) from Islamabad, where he was held before being sent into exile in Saudi Arabia in 2000. Supporters said that if the brothers were arrested it would spark violence that could spiral into an uprising.

The Government appreciates the stakes. Mahmood Ali Durrani, the Information Minister, suggested again yesterday that the Government could impose emergency rule to maintain order in this Muslim country of 165 million people. “The next 48 hours are very critical,” he said.

With only two days until Mr Sharif’s planned return, it is still unclear how he will reenter Pakistan. Amid cloak-and-dagger planning, a spokesman said that he was booked on five different flights from London, where he moved last year to be with his sick son.

Still less clear is how Pakistan will emerge from this high-stakes bout of political brinkmanship: Benazir Bhutto, another exiled former Prime Minister, is due to announce her travel plans on Friday.

She has been negotiating a power-sharing deal with General Musharraf that could allow him to be reelected as President before October 15, and for her to return for parliamentary elections due to be held by mid-January.

But one thing seems certain – General Musharraf will do everything he can to block Mr Sharif’s plans to return to a hero’s welcome. The question is: what can General Musharraf do without eroding further his legitimacy at home and abroad?

Even with Mr Sharif in exile, General Musharraf is facing unprecedented opposition from Islamic radicals, secular political parties, the judiciary and some within the Army and the US Administration.

“He’s between a rock and a hard place,” said one Western diplomat. “In theory, he can lock up Sharif or impose emergency rule, but in practice, his options are limited.”

Mr Sharif has already told an entourage of 100 aides, relatives and reporters to go to Heathrow airport on Sunday evening. A private plane would be easy to stop, so Mr Sharif plans to take a scheduled flight to Islamabad.

“We are all booked on five different flights and a decision [on] which one to take will be made tomorrow,” said his spokesman, Nadir Chaudhri.

If Mr Sharif boards a flight, General Musharraf could still prevent the plane from landing in Pakistan. However, it would risk violating a recent ruling by the Supreme Court allowing Mr Sharif to return.

If Mr Sharif lands in Pakistan, the Government may deport him as it did his brother when he tried to return in 2004, according to official sources.

Or it could arrest them – as was made clear yesterday. An anticorruption court held a hearing for a case involving allegations that the Sharif family defaulted on a bank loan.

Then, another court ordered the arrest of Shahbaz Sharif for ordering police to shoot dead five men while he was chief minister of Punjab. A senior government official also threatened to reinstate a life sentence passed on Mr Sharif in 2000.

With so many possible outcomes, most analysts say it is impossible to predict how the next few days will play out. But whatever happens, Mr Sharif’s retainers will tend his lawns and clip his hedges in Raiwind.

“ Inshallah, he will come home soon,” said Khalid Mahmood, 57, as he repaired some barbed wire fence. “We depend on him for everything.”

Coming home

— Napoleon was exiled in Elba for less than a year before escaping and returning to the French mainland. People and troops rallied to him, police sent to arrest him kneeled at his feet, and the new king, Louis XVIII, fled to Belgium

— Garibaldi was twice forced into exile whilst fighting for a republican Italy. He travelled back from Uruguay with 60 of his “redshirt” militia in 1848, but after a year fled again to the United States. He returned in 1851 to embark on military campaigns key to the unification of Italy

— Charles Taylor fled to the US after being removed from government office in Liberia for embezzling nearly $1 million. After being jailed under an extradition agreement, he escaped – he claims by sawing through a window in a laundry room – and returned to Africa where he stoked civil war in Sierra Leone and Liberia, before becoming Liberian President in 1997

— After fascist Italy defied world opinion in 1936 by invading Ethiopia, the Emperor Haile Selassie fled to England. In an emotive speech to the League of Nations he pleaded: “I, Haile Selassie I, Emperor of Ethiopia, am here today to claim that justice which is due to my people.” It was not until 1941 that British forces drove out the Italians, and he returned to reclaim his Empire

Sources: sparknotes.com, infoplease.com, about.com, bookrags.com

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