Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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to The Sunday Times
Burma will be a test of whether the heat of world attention can burn through the shield around a country which its leaders have gone to such lengths to isolate.
The call for more sanctions from Gordon Brown and George Bush means little. Britain and the US long ago imposed what they could on arms and trade. The effect of sanctions on a regime that does not care about its people’s wellbeing, let alone their happiness, is very slim.
Yet the symbolic effect is important. It will add to the worldwide clamour provoked by the crackdown, which must give the generals pause for thought. It is to be hoped, for a start, that it will put them off any thought of harming Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the pro-democracy movement. Any attempt to repeat their forceful crushing of the 1988 protest, in which they fired into peaceful crowds, will carry a much greater cost than it did then.
More practically, the outrage may also encourage China and India to put pressure directly on the regime. They are by far in the best place to do so, as neighbours and trading partners. Even if only out of self-interest, they would have good reason to try: they want access to its gas reserves, do not want turmoil, and would greatly prefer Burma’s peaceful economic development.
The worldwide protest has arisen because, for the first time, we have been able to see what is happening, in detail. The internet and mobile phones have made it possible for images to get out – and to be relayed back to the Burmese themselves – where they would have been suppressed in the past.
That may prove to be the outside world’s most powerful tool in forcing a compromise by the generals or in provoking their overthrow. Burmese people’s growing awareness of the extraordinary development of their neighbours, not least Vietnam, and the freedom enjoyed by citizens in those countries, means that the pressure on the generals will not fade.
Brown, at the Labour Party conference, called yesterday for an immediate meeting of the United Nations Security Council to send a UN envoy to Burma and to agree on a reaction to human rights violations. The European Union was also going to look at “a whole range of sanctions that could be imposed”, the Prime Minister said. President Bush, at the UN, also announced tighter sanctions, including visa restrictions, on top of those imposed in 1997, to target key individuals of the regime for the first time.
It is hard to see how the direct effect of these would change the generals’ minds. The proposed measures can only be pinpricks. But the immediacy of the response can still send a powerful message. It will send it to China as well as Burma and, in the end, any real pressure will come from China, as a member of the UN Security Council and as Burma’s giant neighbour and customer for its gas. It has not only invested in developing those fields, but in the ports and roads to carry trade.
It not only does not want disruption to those plans, but does not want to be seen to be supporting a regime whose only response to protest is force. That also applies to India, China’s rival for Burma’s energy exports, which has tended to keep quiet when Burmese repression comes up for discussion.
This week’s uproar will do two useful things: remind the generals that the world is watching and tell Burma’s neighbours that it thinks they have a responsibility to persuade it to change.
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The complexity of the situation in Myanmar is not adequately being reported by the news media. The government there faces armed insurrection from a variety of minority peoples within their border. Some of these minorities occupy territories in neighboring states. These states cooperate with the government of Burma in suppressing insurrections as they too fear that these ethnic minorities will form breakaway states. We might be much more effective in helping the people of Burma to achieve a more just democratic society if we were to assist them in resolving some of these internal problems. Sanctions and empty threats will do little to prevent continuing bloodshed.
FREDERICK VAQUER, pasadena, usa/ca
There they go again ,those hypocritics in the West; the very same ones who propped up the dictator Musharraf and the oppressive Saudi monarchy, are now calling for the overthrow of the dictators in Burma.
And their gall in calling on india and China to lead the battle!
In the first place India has to be the only country in the world surrounded by failed states, Afghanistan, Burma, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. How can it possibly be expected to exert its influence in all of these unstable chaotic nations without risking its own security or avoid being accused of acting as the regional bully.
In the second place history has shown that struggles for liberation are won only by the uprising of the oppressed and in the end only the Burmese people can overthrow their dictators, and they should do so by showing more courage and determination. It's not enough for a few thousand monks to march peacefully. The whole country must pour into the streets and take on the military.
kishore, Galena, Illinois
I think let us not get all stuffy and parochial now about this suggestion!
Yes, India is in a delicate position given that it needs the support of the junta in quelling guerrila operatives that might use Myanmar as a base for launching violent activities in India'a north eastern states. But that does not mean we should just watch as silent spectators! And isnt that what international diplomacy is all about in any case.
Having said that, the advisory above is probably more suitable for Russia, China and other members of the UN who exercise veto powers and are in a postion to take action that is not merely symbolic.
Amrit Virk, Delhi, India
Since the British media has decided to change Myanmar's name back to Burma because they don't like the regime, can we expect some articles about Rhodesia too?
Adriana, Peterborough, UK
Sadly the Zimbbwean human catastrophy and South Africa's involvement (or lack thereof) does not auger well for Burma/Myanmar's neighbours ability or even willingness to act as agents for positive change.
Arnold Ward, Weybridge, Surrey, UK
India cant do much beyond the moral support it has consistently given Burmese Democrats - it took up the human rights issue on its own in the early 90s without western support-
results -base rights and energy rights to China and haven for terrorists in the north east of india. the only country with leverage on myanmar is china. the west also waxed and waned and ultimately didnt really do much.
bunty, new delhi, india
We tried it with South Africa and Iraq and both, in their own ways, have proven to be disastrous. South Africa, because the Mandela effect madke us blind to the immensely un-gifted people that followed him. Iraq, for obvious reasons. This does not make apartheid right nor does it condone Saddamâs regime. But what is unavoidable is the fact that liberal pressure and self-congratulatory penchant for regime change only benefits those that campaign and if wrong in their power broking they then cannot keep on campaigning to remove successive âtrialâ regimes until one is found that they are comfortable with. It is not enough to want freedom for other people. Their human rights are just as affected if they are in an unsympathetic regime as under a failing government. It is every manâs right to have a revolution; to shed blood; for the more purposeful, most fitting, to assume power; the outcome is not necessarily obvious, nature not nurture. The world is full of empasses through intervention.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
un ,us 4 other countries talking sanctions while monks get killed is typical of the lack of interest in this poor affair. the simplest way to get the junta in burma to a negotiaiting table would be for the un to seize the a/c's of the generals in banks in singapore. singapore is a haven for these corrupt people in burma and crooks from other nations as well (indonesia,malaysia etc)
ken mackinnon, jakarta, indonesia
India's moral authority, that she seems to display in other conflicts around the world, is being rapidly tarnished by the Burmese situation. It seems that India's economic interests far outweigh the lives and human rights of the Burmese people.
It makes me feel ashamed to be Indian.
Dilip, Bradford, UK
Can we really expect China to exert any pressure when they seem perfectly happy to turn a blind eye to the atrocities in Darfur - atrocities committed by the Sudanese militia, who are armed via oil revenue provided by none other than...the Chinese. In this instance, they seem unconcerned that they're supporting a violent regime. They're content just to mine it of the necessary resources and not care what the knock-on effects are. What's to say their attitude towards Burma will be any different?
Lewis, UK,
again not sure whether india holds any weight at all with the Burmese Government, as it has always been in the Chinese sphere of influence.
Regardless, its up to the burmese people to decide how to rule their own country, Bush and cronies have lost all credibility long ago, who really cares what they think in asia.
It is not credible for western governments to encourage overthrow of foreign governments while themselves up to the eyeballs, deep in occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Akram, London,
Wonderful! No mention of French.
Confused, UK,
After doing some re-search, it seems that Burma does have some oil, however, it's probably not economical enough to occupy a country with a fair size military on the basis of helping it's people from their dictators (kinda like Iraq).
The other reason for not intervening could be that Mr Bush doesn't know that Burma has some oil.
stanzler, ny, usa
Unfortunately Burma does not have oil...
stanzler, ny, usa
China should not be held responsible for whatever its neighbor is doing. China doesn't have a particular close relationship with Burma, like other countries in the region, China has a trading relationship with Burma. As for the 2008 Olympics, I don't think it should be linked to politics.
What is happening in Burma is a tragedy, but changes have to come from inside. Burmese people have to stand up to its military government and force it to change. The path to democracy is never going to be smooth.
Cindy, London,
If China indeed holds the key to a peaceful resolution of this issue, then God/Buddha/Allah help us all. Perhaps they could send in some of the tanks left over from Tienneman Square. The US administration will do nothing but shake its collective head and say, "tsk, tsk." But then, my president is hardly in the position to tell another war-monger to knock it off.
karen, rochester, ny, usa
What China can do?! Please do not always mention the bloody Olympics! Since when sports have anything to do with politics?! What the western world is behaving towards the Olympic games in China feels like doing China and Chinese people a big favor! It does leave a bad taste in the mouth! Of course we feel sorry for those poor Burmese people. But any changes have to come from inside. As previous comments, there lacks a magic word "oil". If Burma is full of oil reserves like Saudi Arabia or Iraq, I bet Bush and his army will be the first one jumping right into it instead of just talking and talking right now! Please do not associate China with what is happening in Burma! It has nothing to do with us!
CK, London,
Don't forget China had bad experiences in Korea and Vietnam. They are even less keen than America to return to the region.
Having said that, something must be done in Burma, Darfur etc. The UN should deploy right now.
Ben, York,
As an British Indian, I feel it is a sad day for India, the worlds largest democracy, to stand by and watch without comment the brutal repression of monks and pro democracy demonstrators by the military Junta they have close ties with. They have certainly lost the moral high ground.
eg, kent, uk
do not agree with the idea of "CALL FOR A BOYCOTT OF THE BEIJING OLYMPICS" what are we going to achieve from doing it and can't see any link between what happened in Burma and what is going to happen in Beijing 2008. COMMUNCIATION but NOT BOYCOTT if you are going to make something work!!
Gary, London, UK
I think Bronwen Maddox may be oversimplifying the extent to which these images are getting back to the Burmese people. I have spent time in Burma and one thing I do know is that internet access is heavily restricted and there is a ban on all foreign media. I would be surprised if people in Burma's second most populous city, Mandalay, are receiving an objective view of any of this. In that regard, Rangoon (Yangon) is quite possibly the least likely place in Burma to suffer human rights abuses. In the countryside, well away from the tourist areas, I have seen children as young as 7 or 8 doing forced roadworks and men and women forced (ie as slaves) to work in the government poppy fields (yes, for heroin production). (Why be bothered about economic sanctions from the rest of the world when the drug trade is funding your regime?)
I fear that those outside Rangoon will suffer doubly for this and no amount of comment from privileged journalists kicking back in London will assist.
renton, london,
Obviously, the gas reserves aren't enough to ignite world interest, and they don't contain the magic word "oil". Perhaps a few judicious spelling errors on the intelligence reports being fed to messrs Brown and Bush might persuade them to send something more than a stuffed shirt with a UN badge pinned onto it.
KR, Stockport,
China holds the key. We, normal citizens, need to act and should CALL FOR A BOYCOTT OF THE BEIJING OLYMPICS and also a boycott of all chinese made goods (might be more difficult to do since most cheap goods are made in china). This might pressure China into leaning on the Burmese Junta and asking them to engage in dialogue with the peaceful protestors.
Theia, Lausanne, Switzerland
The junta are interested only in their own well-being, as they perceive it, they have had nothing to gain from moving towards democracy. Even stern words from China are unlikely to change that attitude, and lost resource contracts which could benefit the whole country will not worry the generals so long as they can look after themselves.
The Burmese people are devoted Buddhists, but relatively few have practised as taught by the Buddha. The most positive development in Burma in recent years has been the widespread increase in the practise of Vipassana meditation, the main teaching of the Buddha, and the blossoming of Vipassana centres. This deepening of practise will become a force for peaceful change.
Faustino, Brisbane, Australia
Hi Bronwen,
Myanmar is India's ally in the Global War On Terror. The Junta is our best bet to bring terrorists in the North East of India to heel.
It is better to engage them than to isolate them.
Sound familiar? We learned from your support to Pakistan that it is our interest not the that of the local populace that counts.
Grow up. Sauce for the Goose and all that...
Shankar Ghosh, Wai, Maharashtra, India
It is just appalling that the countries like India, China, US, Bristish, French, Germany, Japan, are not doing much to help the poor monks and Burmese people who desperately need outside help to overthrow this ruthless miliatary governments.This government has killed many before, and they are doing it again and will continue to do so unless the rest of the world gets involved. Where are all the celebrities like Richard Gere, George Clooney, Angelina Jolie etc. when these people need their help? Don't let the poor monks down. Help them in this fight to free from this self elected brutal ruler.
anj, NYC, USA
Ms. Madix - China & Russia can and have stopped any action by the world. Why include India? There are a lot of western governments and journalists standing by India in its principled stand about Tibet and refuge for the Dalai Lama, isn't it? So now you want India to go with your demand.
Lakshmi, Oxford,
India's immediate problems are Pakistan and Bangladesh, sponsors of Islamic terrorism. Also the current federal government is mired in problems due to major coalition partner, communists. These communists unfold their umbrellas when it rains in Moscow or Beijing. In addition, India does not pretend to be a beacon of democracy nor impose it on others unlike the US, Britain and others. As we are all aware, these nations support many tin-pot dictators in many nations such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and some more. So moral lectures carry little weight!
Due to above reasons, the Indian government will be a mere spectator to the events in Burma.
However, China will do exactly opposite of what the US, Britain and other nations want them to do!
"world is watching and tell Burmaâs neighbours that it thinks they have a responsibility to persuade it to change."
Let us apply this responsibility uniformly unlike the usual pick and choose!
Regards,
Krishna R. Kumar, Udupi, India