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Who will win?
The monks have the popular support, but the regime has the guns and by last night appeared to have gained the upper hand. But there is one big difference between this uprising and that of 1988, when the army killed 3,000 protesters. This time the demonstrators have mobile telephones, some have the internet and video cameras. They can communicate with each other and the outside world. The regime can no longer crush its opponents unseen.
What triggered the protests?
On August 15 the junta doubled fuel prices in a country whose inhabitants endure extreme poverty. A few hundred protested, but on September 5 troops broke up a rally attended by monks in Pakokku. The monks demanded an apology by September 17. When it did not come they refused alms from the military, essentially excommunicating it, and took to the streets in tens of thousands, demanding democracy.
How did the junta respond?
Initially the monks discouraged public participation and protested alone. Last weekend ordinary Burmese began joining their protests. As the demonstrations grew, the junta dithered, even permitting the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to greet protesters at the gate of the home where she lives under house arrest. On Monday night the junta broadcast warnings. On Tuesday, after a demonstration by 100,000 Burmese, troops and riot police moved positions around Rangoon. On Wednesday the crackdown began, with monks and monasteries the prime targets.
Who are the monks?
There are more than 400,000 in a devoutly Buddhist country. They are socially engaged and greatly respected. Collectively they form the strongest institution in the country apart from the military, and have a record of political activism. They resisted British colonial rule and played an important role in the 1988 uprising against the dictator General Ne Win that was crushed by the Armed Forces.
What about the regime?
A military regime has run Burma off and on for the past four decades. The current leader is Senior General Than Shwe, 74, who is rumoured to be ill. But the junta has proved to be very resilient. Military rule has been brutal and ruthless, as the bloody events of 1988 testify. The leadership is reclusive and superstitious. Last year it moved the capital to Naypyidaw, a remote town more than 200 miles from Rangoon. The timing was made on the advice of astrologers.
The lifestyle of the faceless generals remains a mystery, although occasionally startling details emerge. Last year footage of Than Shwe’s daughter’s wedding was posted on the internet. It showed military leaders drinking champagne and the bride dripping in diamonds.
And Aung San Suu Kyi?
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