Chinese people who want to know the identity of the man who will be their leader into the next decade should log on to the internet.

But in a country where politics are opaque and the media is banned from reporting such state secrets as the lineup of the new Politburo Standing Committee, the clues to their identities lie in what is prohibited. In the past few days it has become impossible in China to include the names Xi Jinping or Li Keqiang in a blog.

These two men are most likely to take over as the next Communist Party chief and Prime Minister of China. They are almost certain to be appointed to the standing committee at the end of this week’s five-yearly Communist Party congress.

The composition of the standing committee is one of the most tightly guarded secrets in China, but rumours about the list have been rife. Sources with close links to China’s internet service providers say that they have, in the past few days, been required to alter their servers to reject attempts by Chinese bloggers to place online certain names in case derogatory or personal comments about new leaders find their way into cyberspace.

Mentions on blogs of President Hu Jintao and the Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, have long been impossible. But now several new names have become taboo. A source told The Times that an online check would swiftly reveal the names of the nine members of the standing committee to be unveiled on Monday.

A plenum on Monday of the central committee, newly elected a day earlier by the party congress as part of a process that has not changed since the days of Chairman Mao, will reappoint several leaders who will continue to govern China for the next five years. It will also include their heirs to power.

Mr Hu and Mr Wen are to stay, as are the parliament chief Wu Bangguo and party veterans Jia Qinglin and Li Changchun. Vice-President Zeng Qinghong is to step down, saying he has reached the retirement age of 68. However, the average Chinese person is more curious about the fifth-generation leaders who will take over when the fourth generation retires in 2012.

In fifth place on the list, in terms of seniority and thus positioned to take over as head of the party and the leader of China, is the Shanghai party boss Xi Jinping, 54, followed by Li Keqiang, 52, party chief of the northeastern province of Liaoning and thus expected to be a shoo-in for prime minister. The final two positions will be taken by a new security chief, Zhou Yongkang, who is currently the head of public security, and He Guoqiang who, as the party’s head of personnel, wields huge power to hire and fire.

Many Chinese barely recognise these names. Their coming to power is a result of haggling over cups of tea, wrangling over rice bowls and the exchange of messages among leaders and retired elder statesmen. A senior official observing the process quoted a Chinese proverb: “Big decisions are taken at small meetings, small decisions are taken at big meetings.” President Hu has positioned an heir after numerous small meetings, sources said. His choice of the recently appointed Shanghai chief Mr Xi is no compromise. It is a result of the President’s will to anoint an heir acceptable to himself and China’s increasingly collective leadership.

The new standing committee retains nine members rather than the traditional seven because of the limits on Mr Hu’s power in the collective leadership that now sits on top of China’s bureaucracy. But his ability to promote his protégés makes Mr Hu the first, by far, among equals.

Some members may appear to be loyal to President Hu’s predecessor, Jiang Zemin, but these are men who long ago switched sides. One Chinese political analyst said: “Jiang had no choice but to appear in the seat next to Hu at the opening session of the congress, but the way he yawned showed he was uncomfortable. This was no victory for Jiang.”

Powerful pair

Xi Jinping

The engineering graduate is a princeling, the son of an army veteran, reformist deputy prime minister and parliamentary vice-chairman. His wife is Peng Liyuan, a renowned singer and arguably more popular and famous than her husband. Considered a reformist and pro-business, he is regarded as a friend by Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, who described him as “the kind of guy who knows how to get things over the goal line”. In secret-ballot city elections, he recently topped the polls

Li Keqiang

As a student he mixed with advocates of democracy and learnt the ideas of English judges at a university that fostered dissent. At Peking University in the 1970s he plunged into campus politics, befriended free-thinkers and co-translated The Due Process of Law by Lord Denning. He joined the Communist Youth League’s central secretariat, then headed by Hu Jintao, but his career languished after the Tiananmen Square crackdown because of his liberal associations. He prospered in the poor central Henan province and became a protégé of Mr Hu

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