It is hard to think that Pervez Musharraf can now last long, either as President of Pakistan or head of the Army. His panicked move to bring in what he calls “emergency rule” has lost him international support and set him on a collision course with the courts, the lawyers and the main political parties.

The only conceivable peaceful outcome is that he agrees to go ahead with elections due in January, and accepts the results. But he said not one word about them in his address announcing emergency rule. More likely, his action will lead to such turmoil that he is pushed out; his successor may well be someone else in a uniform – specifically, General Kiyani, his deputy – but in such uproar there would be many contenders.

Musharraf said that he brought in emergency rule because of terrorism, but this is nonsense. True, there has been a suicide attack almost every day for weeks, and militants have moved into the previously peaceful Swat valley in the North West Frontier Province.

But his unmistakeable target was the judges and courts. Why else would he send soldiers to seal off the Supreme Court while it was sitting and the houses of the Chief Justice and other key lawyers, as well as those of the heads of the main political parties and the state broadcasting and radio stations? The Supreme Court was due to rule this week on whether Musharraf’s reelection last month was legitimate, while he remained head of the Army. The ruling may well have gone against him; when he preempted that decision this weekend, seven of the eleven justices refused to back him, on penalty of being sacked.

It is possible that Musharraf also could not face stepping down as head of the Army and taking off his uniform, as he had promised to do, by November 15, whatever the court ruling. Much of his power would immediately have gone; calculation aside, the psychological wrench may also have been too formidable.

What Musharraf means by “a state of emergency” is still unclear. It looks like martial law, with soldiers in control of the main institutions. The implication is that he does not intend to recognise the constraints of the courts of Constitution. But he has not yet suspended the Constitution formally, or ruled out elections, improbably distant as that step might now seem.

What happens now? There will be public protests, which will put him in a quandary about how much force to use (and will severely strain his command of the Army). Aitzaz Ahsan, head of the Pakistan Bar Association, leading the petitions in the Supreme Court against Musharraf, has called for people to take to the streets; if this most urbane courtroom star believes this is the only response left, then many others will too. There will also be huge pressure from Britain and the US – with the threat of cutting off US military aid – to lift the state of emergency and to hold elections. In imposing the emergency rule, Musharraf bluntly defied that pressure; according to US reports, Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State, thought she had succeeded in persuading him to hold back.

All the same, Musharraf has regularly been impetuous (and calls himself hotheaded in his autobiography published last year), but has then brought the temperature down. He has made huge progress in draining the heat from the Kashmir dispute with India – his greatest achievement as President – even though he had helped previously to lead the cross-border incursion at Kargil, which took the countries to new animosity.

If by some miracle of diplomacy and pressure at home he were now persuaded to get back on track, it is still hard to see how he could survive. Benazir Bhutto, head of the left-wing Pakistan People’s Party, is the most likely winner, and her recent power-sharing deal with him must now be in shreds.

But if the turmoil continues, all kinds of would-be leaders may reckon that their time has come. Musharraf has put great faith in the loyalty of Kiyani, the recent head of the ISI intelligence agency, making him his heir-apparent as head of the Army. But it would be entirely consistent with Pakistan’s past if a former loyalist, in an army uniform, now thought he could do a better job.

Who’s who among Musharraf’s critics

- Benazir Bhutto The former Prime Minister, whose father was deposed and executed in 1979, returned after General Musharraf agreed to drop corruption charges against her. Head of the Pakistan People’s Party, she was deciding yesterday whether to call out her supporters

- Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, whom General Musharraf first tried to dismiss as Chief Justice in March, sparking huge protests. The Supreme Court was expected to annul General Musharraf’s recent election victory. Yesterday police surrounded the compound where he and other judges live

- Aitzaz Ahsan The lawyer who successfully defended the Chief Justice. Potential rival to Bhutto. Under house arrest

- Nawaz Sharif Deposed as PM in the 1999 coup, returned from exile recently and was deported immediately. The Supreme Court has ruled this illegal. Leads Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)

- Baitullah Mehsud Taleban commander in the Waziristan region

- Mullah Fazlullah Preaches jihad in the Swat Valley, Pakistan’s newest battlefield against Islamist militants, using an illegal radio station

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