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From The Times
December 28, 2007

Can democracy survive, and who will take Bhutto's place?

A bomb explodes next to the vehicle of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto

Bronwen Maddox

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto does not mean the death of democracy in Pakistan — provided that elections are held soon.

The instinct of President Pervez Musharraf may well be to postpone the vote, due on January 8, and to reimpose the state of emergency that he has only just lifted, arguing that otherwise violence will sweep Pakistan. The immediate condemnation from Moscow, expressing fears that Ms Bhutto's death would trigger a wave of terrorism — gave implicit support for any crackdown.

But the Pakistan People's Party, which under Bhutto had remained the premier force in national politics, will very likely want the polls to go ahead. The party, providing that it can produce a plausible leader, could hope to sweep to a powerful lead on the back of the "martyr effect". Britain and the US are also likely to argue that elections are the best way to retrieve stability.

Bhutto's death will be a terrible shock to Pakistan, but it is hard to say that it is a surprise. As a woman, and from the poorer province of the Sindh rather than the Punjab heartland of Pakistan's establishment, she seemed to hold out the hope of turning Pakistan into a more modern country, although corruption charges from her two spells as Prime Minister were still simmering in Swiss courts. When she returned after eight years abroad, in flight from corruption charges, many reckoned that her life expectancy could be measured in weeks if not hours.

Q&A: the murder of Benazir Bhutto

Times South Asia Correspondent asks who had most to gain from killing the Pakistan People's Party leader

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She was lucky to survive the suicide blast at her homecoming parade in Karachi, where her party workers had drummed up hundreds of thousands of supporters for a rally. But the casualness and fatalism of those workers in providing her security made a successful attempt on her life seem only a matter of time. Even the day after the Karachi blast they allowed hundreds of foreign media workers bearing heavy electronic equipment to crowd into her family compound. Many of them were not scanned for explosives, a gesture at security which bore no resemblance to a modern, determined attempt to protect the life of an irreplaceable leader.

Rallies such as today's — announced only a day in advance for security reasons — posed an obvious risk. Bhutto was much criticised for the vanity of the Karachi rally, where the blast killed about 140. But after Musharraf imposed a state of emergency in November, which shut down private television stations, the option of "virtual campaigning" was closed to her. Even though channels were back on air in recent weeks, their political content was excised — the condition that General Musharraf had imposed for their return. Rallies in key towns such as Rawalpindi became irresistible, if still reckless.

It is a fair bet that Ms Bhutto's fervent supporters will blame Musharraf. Even though the Karachi bomb followed explicit threats on her life by Islamic militants — and to many, they are still the most plausible perpetrators — many PPP supporters assumed that it was the work of the intelligence agencies. Even those standing by the bodies of injured relatives in the Jinnah Post-graduate Medical Centre, the city's main hospital, firmly asserted that Musharraf and intelligence agents should bear responsibility, not Bhutto.

They will be even more inclined to see the hand of Musharraf in the assassination because it happened in Rawalpindi, the garrison town which is the head of Pakistan's military, and the site of Army House, where Musharraf lives (and where he has refused to leave, even though he has stepped down as head of the Army).

The threat of violent protest across the country, but particularly in Bhutto's home province of Sindh, is no exaggeration by the Musharraf camp. Judging by his recent reflexes, Musharraf may well invoke that threat of violence as justification for a new security crackdown.

In that, he is likely to be backed by General Ashfaq Kiyani, a loyalist whom he recently inserted as his replacement as Army chief. But this will be the first test of whether Kiyani's loyalty holds, and of whether he shares Musharraf's tactics for confronting the terrorist threat.

The most contentious question confronting Musharraf is whether to press ahead with the elections due in less than two weeks. His instinct — again, judging by his imposition of house arrest on Bhutto and her supporters after her return, and his wavering commitment at that point to the polls — may well be for a postponement.

But he will come under enormous pressure from those who want to see Pakistan move back towards democracy. Britain and the US have made these elections a central plank of their policy — even while acknowledging that these polls might not be quite free and fair. They encouraged an alliance between Bhutto and Musharraf, hoping that this compromise, democratically unsatisfactory in so many ways, would still deliver the security and political maturity that Pakistan needs.

What happens to the PPP now? Many in the party believe that that martyr effect will propel them to victory if the elections do go ahead. But the PPP will need a plausible leader; even though Bhutto spent eight years in exile, the feudal power of her family name made it inconceivable that anyone else would take over.

But now that she is gone (and her children are thought to be too young), other names will emerge. The most plausible immediate candidate is that of Ameen Fahim, party vice-president, who ran the party during her years of exile. From a powerful feudal family in Sindh province, just like her, he is thought to have the political reach to pull together the party's factions and take it towards victory.

Others are less likely. Aitzaz Ahsan, perhaps the most famous lawyer after Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, has led the fight against military rule. But his relations with Bhutto had become tense; she had asked him to clarify whether he put his alliance with the judiciary above that of the party. In any case, he has no geographical base of support.

There is, too, her husband, Asif Zardari. But he is not a creditable figure. He lacks her charisma and, during her time in office, was widely known as "Mr 10 per cent". He also stayed in exile to avoid corruption charges (which the Bhuttos said were politically motivated) but, suffering heart trouble, did not return with her in October. In an interview on her return, I asked her whether he would join her. "No", she said emphatically. "He will look after the children, and in any case, he is ill."

it is a very greif situation in not only in pakistan but throughout the world and specialy nation would take too much time for come out from the dense darkness.As far as suvival of pakistan and democracy is concern, the larg part of democracy is already exist in pakistan in military tenur. i fully agree with theologian who believ that the present govt is martial law basis. yes it is right but the freedom liberation have never been observed and enjoyed by pakistani media and people in any govt during past 50 year, as today. the history is evidence that every coming govt imposed restirctions on instituition. So the democracy is already present in our country but it is need for continously betterment.
As far as next chairperson is concern, so i do not think so that after BB Sahiba any other person could fill the gap. her son is immeture for politics he is merely a 19-year-old student adn has never been attend any political gathering. Asif Ali Zardari is purely a feudal personality.

farhan*, karachi, pakistan

abdul laif, from jeddah , saudi arabia
The title of the article is can democracy survive, and who will take Bhutto's place? So stick to the relevant discussion.
As for the communal violence in Orissa, India, well let me tell you my friend, Communal violence only occurs in a country that lets its people choose & practise whatever Religion they wish to. I am afraid the same can not be said about Saudi Arabia where non-muslims are not even allowed a place of worship. Anyways how are you able to tell that Hindu fanatics are making the lives of people unbearable since you are sitting in Islamic Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (worst human rights abusing country against Minorities & Women in the world). One can just imagine what kind of a reaction would have occured if Christian Missionaries would publicly convert Muslims in Saudi Arabia & build churches. Do not critises or label RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal just because they do not wish for all Hindus in India to be converted to Muslims/Christian

Shaggy, London, UK

however tragically Ms Bhutto's assassination is, the truth is that she is a twice failed politician as is Nawaz Shariff and I cannot understand why the USA, Britain and others have invested so much capital into her. failure would have been the outcome once again. this is the old politics (experience!)steeped in their view of history choosing old politicians to sort out new problems and it has not and will not work. a new direction needs to be found.
i suggest that in fact support should now not be offered to nawaz shariff but the political parties (PPP and PML)in pakistan should be urged to elect new leaders of a younger generation to form new policies and new directions as only the new can. this could be a new dawn for pakistan as the old guard is removed and the new young, educated and up coming generation takes over the reins. the USA should support the development of this new leadership and perhaps should open a dialogue with Iman Khan who has been the least self serving of all the politicians in pakistan.
also support for musharaff should be withdrawn as there will be no new awakening or dawn with him around imposing his view of the world and being aligned with G Bush. let us make triumph out of adversity and find a way of uplifting the people through real representation rather than imposed representation by failed and experienced politicians of old in pakistan and abroad.
there is this huge opportunity in pakistan as in the USA to map out a new direction and it must be taken or this chance will never come again. let us not be swept along with the hype and hysteria of chaos in pakistan and not build up one person to be the saviour of the nation. the saviour of the nation will be all of the people individually so let us help each in their aspiration to a better life and standard of living and then the extremists will be completely isolated.

shahid, london, UK

mani from bangalore - you sound like a ghentoo - brown sahib - gungadeen if you see what i mean - wallowing in loathing of ones identity. India has its problems - and there lots ; but it has genuine success too. And it definitely does not bear comparision to what is happening in pakistan. What we see in pakistan today is the logical outcome of the logic of partition - and there are still more of those to come.
andy from france , robert from vancouver..before singing paens for the british empire - please remember that most of the problems there are the legacy of british rule. You must not have heard people very different fomr our mani from bangalore. Please understand that we are not particularly unhappy that we are not second rate british colonial subjects (read slaves) and have no intention of going back there for the sake of mispaced nostalgia of some westerner.
Bob Richard from washington gave a very accurate and succinct understanding of the current situation in the subcontinent. I am sure what he says is very applicable in some other places racked by conflict across the world.

Rajiv, Tokyo, Japan

Given that democracy has never truly existed in Pakistan, one has to wonder what Bronwen Maddox is doing with this piece. Telling the foreign policy establishments of London & Washington that she's a reliable soul, perhaps? I can't think of any more plausible explanation in light of US and UK support for the destruction of Pakistan democracy from the Cold War's outset.

The death of Bhutto offers a number of very timely boons to the US and its hegemonic elite coalitions. A Caliphate with nukes is, of course, what the Neo-Cons have long dreamed of (and worked for). Menaced India will move ever more securely into the embrace of the sea powers. Menaced Gulf States will be less inclined to ditch the dollar, and will spend more on US weaponry. Musharraf can at last be desposed of and his removal blamed on "Al Qaeda" or outraged Bhutto supporters. And so on and so forth.

Bhutto was most likely murdered from close range, with the external shooter a decoy.

Paul Rigby, Southport, UK

What is 'democracy'?

This definition can only survive if the electorate can trust the politicians, if there are no free elections you can't possibly have a democracy, having said that, if there are not enough people voting in order to produce a truly representative election that isn't democracy either.

Perhaps democracy is a mirage, a figment of our imagination.

Evan Owen, Harlech, Wales

Democracy in Pakistan? What democracy? Democracy has not been born in Pakistan yet.

Chris Miles, manchester, uk

It is difficult for Democracy to survive in PAK. N.Sherif is trying to fish in "troubled waters".
Need to find out whether 'Al-Qaeda' HQ is in Army house in PAK,rather than in Wasiristan. India needs to review its defence & security as PAK survives as a country on Anti-India slogan..so does PAK military.

Jacob, DOHA,

thhis kind of turmoil is common in this region. In pakistan and India religious bigotry is wreaking havoc in the lives or ordinary peaceloving people. politicians are responsible for fomenting trouble using religios extremists. in India, Hindu fanatics are making the lives of people unbearable. since two days hindu fanatics have burnt dozens of churches and prayer halls in the state of Orissa. with each electoral victories these hindu elements led by RSS, VHP, and bajrangdal are freely propagating their hatred. and these hindu fanatic outfits have been funded by overseas hindus living in USA and UK.

abdul laif, jeddah , saudi arabia

The question is actually laughable.

Pakistan WAS a democracy until 1951/10/16, when Liaqat Ali Khan was bumped-off--in THE SAME LOCALE (formerly known as "Municipal Park", renamed "Liaqat Bagh" in his honour) where Bhutto met her end yesterday. Till 1970/1971, democracy in Pakistan was moribund (still considered as viable). It perished the day that the military (led by Yahya Khan) refused to allow legally-elected Mujibur Rehman to take office of Prime Minister!

Sadhasiv, Washington DC, USA

I wasn't aware that Pakistan was a democracy - from what I read it seems to be a haven for Al Qaeda members. As for Benazir Bhutto - no person, and certrainly no politician, is indispensable. I'm sure another will arise - perhaps to change things in Pakistan; but it seems like a long haul to me.

Ian, Bristol,

Bob Richard - you probably dont think that the partitions of Palestine and Ireland were based on religious grounds.

I guess you also mean that since India is such a shining example you must also mean that India must be like modern Greece which was effectively partitioned from the Ottoman controlled lands.

How about the United States itself?

Regards


A very worried Pakistani, Pakistan,

Robert of Vancouver .. i suspect a tongue in cheek.. " Back to Colonialism" ... but on a serious note i have worked and travelled extensively in Asia and Africa and you you would be astonished at how many people i met who told me life was infinately better under the British ... Sure, politically and representively things could have been improved for the indigenious populations but in all other aspects .. infrastructure, law and order, education, economy, etc i have often been regaled with nostalgia for the past .....

andy james, lyon, france

People should stop worrying about Pakistan. Terrorism, civil war, extremism; it shows the country is alive. Pakistan has a future.
The same cannot be said of the West; extiction soon level birthrates, de-industrialisation,stagnation and infertility.

Keith Bentham, Wigan, UK

The first thing I said to my husband when he told me was.."Is this a surprise"..No, for me it was only 'WHEN'.

JKYolar, Istanbul, Turkey

Back to the good old colonial system!!

robert, vancouver, bc

nothing to say...
only disappointed~

daisy, jinan, china

Mani of Bangalore: I thought you were in the U.S. when you talked about making babies, culture and religion! Be of good heart. It's just going to take a long, long time to bring along some parts of the world, even some, like the U.S., that appear modern at first glance. Extremist groups tend to self-destruct, but they always appear to burn brightest just before they are extinguished.

Jim, Southeast, USA

We are doomed.

John Doe, Anywhere, USA

Democracy? Pakistan? You are joking I hope.

John Murphy, Lauris, France

The writer is talking about a mythical Pakistan.There has never been a democracy in Pakistan.It has always been a theocratic state essentially.And it has been ruled by military dictators most of the time.The occasional interludes of civilian governments have been largely based on Islamic fervour of some kind or other but never on democracy as it is understood in the West.In a country like Pakistan democracy has absolutely no meaning unless it accomodates and serves the basic Islamic urges of its masses.

Rudra Murthy Venigandla, Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh,India

The history of the Subcontinent has been marked by tragedy from the beginning (in the modern age) by partition on the eve of independence. It is antithetical to modern statehood for the premise of a nation's existence to be an expression religious affiliation. The notion encourages the most extreme to express their patiotism in the form of exclusivist orthodoxy and intolerance.

Aside from the impractical aspect of denying a sense of full participation to all within its boundaries, such a state also cuts itself off from the rest of the world by virtue its self-proclaimed religious "branding."

There are crossroads in the lives of societies. Whatever the talents, visions and ambitions of individual leaders, they have a broader obligation to all those whom they might govern.

This is not to suggest that Pakistan now should not exist. It is to question; Which country, Pakistan or India got the better part of partition, imperfectly secular India or Islamic Pakistan?

Bob Richard, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.

It is indeed a sad day. What sense does it make to talk of corruption charges now that she is dead. It is as though, we in the subcontinent are unfit to live under a democracy. Indian politics is no different. People will raise hands at America's role in this event and many would blame the militants. Whatever the blame game, the fact is that ordinary Pakistanis and indeed Indians just don't understand the purpose of political systems. Damn, I hate this country, this mad obsession with making babies, culture and religion. Too many of us,just too many

mani, Bangalore, ÃŒndia

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