In Kabul’s luxury Serena Hotel, the Taleban has opened a bloody new chapter in their insurgency.

At the cost of a four-man suicide squad — including one attacker armed with an explosive vest — the militant Islamic group has calculated rightly that it can land a huge psychological blow against the shaky authority of the Afghan Government and its supporters in the West.

The Serena is not just a hotel but the five-star symbol of post-Taleban Kabul, where hotels, restaurants and bars have mushroomed to service the community of diplomats, aid workers and journalists that have settled in the Afghan capital. By penetrating the Serena, and causing casualties among its foreign guests, including members of an official Norwegian delegation, the Taleban will be hoping to have the same impact as al-Qaeda suicide bombers had in Baghdad.

The tactic employed in Iraq was simple but highly effective. In the space of a few months Iraqi insurgents succeeded in bombing the United Nations headquarters and other foreign missions, kidnapping and beheading Western aid workers and scaring off most of the rest of the foreign community. Confidence in the Government collapsed, reconstruction efforts ground to a halt and it has taken years for Baghdad to recover.

Until today foreigners were still relatively safe in Kabul, where suicide attacks have generally been targeted at Afghan security forces or Nato military convoys. Now Western aid agencies, whose employees are already restricted from leaving Kabul, will be forced to review security and some may decide to reduce their staff or pull-out altogether.

Foreign embassies, which have been expanding their presence in Kabul over the recent years, may be forced to withdraw non-essential staff.

Those who do stay will be encouraged not to move from their protected hotels and villas and travel only under heavily armed guard. If experience in Iraq is any guide, the tactic is likely to alienate foreigners from locals. The gap between the Western community and ordinary Afghans will grow.

The Taleban may calculate that its resources are better directed at terrorising civilians in Kabul than taking on American, British and other Nato forces on the battlefield where they have little to show for heavy loses. The challenge for the Afghan Government and Nato is to reclaim Kabul and penetrate the Taleban cells planning their next attacks.

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