The economy will be the first headache for the next government of Pakistan and yet all the parties' promises in these fevered last days of campaigning look likely to make the problem worse.

Shaukat Aziz, until recently Prime Minister in President Musharraf's Government, and before that, as Finance Minister, one of the overseers of the recent economic boom, told The Times yesterday that he saw “no reason why the record should be jeopardised by any new government”.

But rising oil and food prices have proved an unexpected jolt to the economy, which has been one of the strongest reasons for hope as the country battles extremism and violence.

Both main parties - the conservative Muslim League, led by Nawaz Sharif, the former Prime Minister, and the People's Party, of the late Benazir Bhutto - have campaigned on a pledge to reduce the costs to poor people, a pledge that Pakistan cannot afford to keep.

Pakistan finally prepares to vote on Monday in elections that were delayed by Bhutto's assassination on December 27, and which are an essential first step for it to recover from turmoil and military rule.

Rightly, attention has focused on whether they will be free and fair or at least something approaching that standard.

The relaxation of controls on Pakistan's lively media, imposed by Musharraf in November when he declared a state of emergency, will provide one set of auditors. That may be part of the reason why Musharraf allowed the stations back on the air.

The Government has also welcomed international observers, so keen is it to get a basic certificate of legitimacy for these polls. That calculation must be right; much worse violence will follow if the results are widely disputed.

Assuming that the elections do go smoothly, there are two shadows hovering. The first is the sheer length of time it may take to

form a government. “No single party will get an absolute

majority,” Aziz predicted. The second is the economy, although about this he said that he was sanguine.

“Pakistan today has a capability to absorb” the higher prices on world markets, he said. But although the Government subsidises fuel and electricity, he acknowledged that its ability to do so for ever is limited in the face of oil in the region of $90 (£45) a barrel and food prices rising much faster than overall inflation.

Yet while the Muslim League and the People's Party have said little about economic policy, they have implied, in courting rural voters, that they will bring prices down. But the State's bill to subsidise fuel at the pump is set to reach about 150 billion rupees (£1.3 billion) for this fiscal year, even before acting on those promises.

Musharraf's rule, since he seized power in 1999, has been dominated by security questions. Although the US and Britain firmly backed him - until the past year's constitutional clashes - for his support on terrorism, they had extra reassurance from his handling of the economy. Pakistan began to escape from its past of uncontrolled deficits, interest payments and balance of payments crises, which had crippled Bhutto's premierships.

It would be wrong to say that this is all now vanishing. Investment has held up well despite the past year's worsening violence. But it is in jeopardy, both because external economic conditions have become more difficult and because the elections, even if smooth, will not end uncertainty.

Musharraf “will be prepared to work with any government that is duly elected”, Aziz said. He added that it was “up to the new government to settle judicial issues” - such as the continuing house arrest of the former Chief Justice and leading lawyers who challenged Musharraf's military leadership. Their detention was right, he maintained, adhering to the Musharraf line: “Security matters”.

About whether Musharraf had any role left at all if the new parliament was to be as strong as he sketched, Aziz was less precise. “He will bring stability, continuity,” he said. However, that emphasises how much has to be settled even if the elections go well. Unfortunately, the huge strain on any new coalition government will be compounded by serious new economic challenges.

Times Recommends

• No apology for Germany’s own Nazi victims
• Intricate web of fear and hope tying down deal
• Victims remembered a year after Mumbai attacks