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President Musharraf’s supporters conceded defeat last night in a landmark parliamentary election that could seal his political fate and resurrect democracy in Pakistan after eight years of military rule.
But while the two main opposition parties appeared to have swept the vote, neither was expected to win an outright majority, setting the stage for a coalition government in this chronically unstable country.
Despite 470,000 police and troops on the streets, turnout was only 30 to 40 per cent because of a wave of suicide attacks by Islamic militants since July, including one that killed Benazir Bhutto, the former Prime Minister, on December 27. Voting was relatively peaceful given the security threat — although Ms Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) claimed 15 members were killed in an attempt to deter voters.
Final results are not expected until tomorrow, but preliminary figures suggest that the PPP will win the most seats followed by the Pakistan Muslim League (N) led by Nawaz Sharif, another former Prime Minister.
The PML (Q), which split from Mr Sharif’s party and supports President Musharraf, was lagging in third place with several of its leading figures — including the party’s leader — losing their seats. Tariq Azeem, a PML (Q) spokesman, said: “People have given their verdict. We respect it. We congratulate the PML (N) and PPP. As far as we are concerned, we will be willing to sit on opposition benches if final results prove that we have lost.”
The makeup of a coalition government will be negotiated in the next few days but a front-runner to be prime minister is Makhdoom Amin Fahim, 68, the PPP vice-chairman and veteran Bhutto loyalist.
The new government could then decide whether President Musharraf, who seized power in a coup in 1999 and became a key US ally in the War on Terror, should be impeached for imposing emergency rule last year to secure his own re-election. It could also determine whether Pakistan continues to co-operate with Britain and the US to the same degree in a campaign against al-Qaeda and Taleban militants near the Afghanistan border.
President Musharraf, 64, who had promised a fair election and warned the opposition not to protest against the result, pledged yesterday to work with the new civilian government.
Asif Ali Zardari, 51, Ms Bhutto’s widower and successor as PPP leader, has not ruled out working with Mr Musharraf, even though many PPP supporters blame the President for her death. “Victory is our destiny and we will change the system,” Mr Zardari said. However, Mr Sharif and senior PPP figures have said that they cannot work with Mr Musharraf and will try to impeach him if they win a two-thirds majority.
The PPP swept the vote in the southern province of Sindh, its traditional stronghold, and also picked up votes in North West Frontier Province from Islamist parties that have lost credibility by allying themselves with President Musharraf.
The main battleground, though, was Punjab, home to 60 per cent of the population and accounting for 148 of the 342 seats in Parliament. The most hotly contested constituency there was in Gujarat. That race — seen as symbolically the most important in the country — was between Chaudhry Shujaat, the leader of the PML (Q), and Ahmad Mukhtar, a wealthy shoe magnate and PPP loyalist.
Mr Mukhtar said that he had spent 40 million rupees (£300,000) of his own money on his campaign and had recruited a militia to guard him and his supporters. “It was very important for us to do a lot of firing into the air,” he said as he dispatched armed men to polling stations where his supporters were reporting alleged electoral abuses. “They are such big crooks. You have to show that you have guns too and can protect people.”
Mr Shujaat, meanwhile, was relaxing over lunch at his white-washed headquarters swarming with heavily armed Punjab police. “I went to vote but otherwise I’m not going out,” he said, scoffing at the suggestion that he was threatened by Mr Mukhtar’s wealth. However, preliminary results suggested that Mr Mukhtar had prevailed and that the PML (Q) would not have enough seats to form a government with its traditional allies. And in Rawalpindi, where Ms Bhutto was assassinated, Mr Sharif’s party appeared to have trounced all the PML (Q) candidates.
The men who matter
Asif Ali Zardari
Benazir Bhutto’s polo-loving widower named as PPP leader in her will, despite corruption allegations that earned him the nickname “Mr 10 Per Cent”. He is running the party until Bilawal, their 19-year-old son, graduates from Oxford. Not standing as prime minister, but is seen as the “power behind the throne”
Makhdoom Amin Fahim
The PPP’s softly-spoken Vice-Chairman and prime ministerial candidate. Served in the Cabinet under both Ms Bhutto and her father, and led the party during her eight years in exile. Refused premiership in 2002, but is seen as acceptable to all sides
Pervez Musharraf
A former special forces commando, he was applauded widely when he seized power in 1999, but angered many conservatives by backing the US-led War on Terror. Alienated urban middle class last year by sacking the Chief Justice and imposing emergency rule
Nawaz Sharif
Wealthy industrialist who has twice been Prime Minister, Mr Sharif heads the Pakistan Muslim League (N) party. Ousted in the Musharraf coup of 1999 and sent into exile. Returned in November to challenge Musharraf, but is barred from elected office because of criminal conviction
Chaudhry Pervez Elahi
Leads splinter faction of Sharif’s party which worked with intelligence agencies to drum up support for Musharraf. Supported by only 5 per cent of Pakistanis
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Musharraf will soon be deposed as Pakistan's president, a job he illegally seized after a coup in 1999, resulting in a nightmare for that country. After his removal by the new parliament, Musharraf should be tried for subverting and destroying Pakistan's constitution and dealt with severely.
Fil Munas, Pittsburg, IL., USA
Real Democracy in a country like Pakistan is unlikely to be seen. For a democracy to flourish, there must be just one power center (PM/President) which should adequately represent the people of the country. Rest of the pillars of the constitution like Judiciary, Military, Intellegence etc should honestly support that one power center. However, in Pakistan's case it is opposite. There are many power centers such as ISI, Millitary, President, Madarsas etc etc, and the Prime Minister is the weakest of all. Any dictator in Pakistan can amend the constitution to suite his wishes and political ambition. With such a fragile past which has been replicated several times, it will difficult for democracy to unfold in Pakistan. Furthermore, democracy stands on the pillar of liberal society which is yet to take its roots in Pakistan. Anyway, lets hope for the best even if this is a beginning, its a welcome happening.
Yogishri Oumkaar (O.M.Sahay), Bangalore, India, Karanataka
Musharraf should now stand aside, be a professional politician and admit defeat - just like what happens in mature democracies !!!
Ian Payne, Walsall,
well come to freedom.Now let them work for five years .military shouldn't interfere aagain in poltics,problem will come but its the people of pakistan will decide not the dictators
maqsood-ur-rehman, birmingham, uk
I wish Pakistan the best of luck. This is a forward looking result but can a coalition work. They will spend the initial few months trying to get rid of Musharraf, while everything else will be neglected. As soon as he is out of the picture, the differences between the parties will surface and then what?
Vinay Mehra, Purley, Surrey
Well this could be the begining of a downslope of musharraf's stenght and infulence on pakistan's foreign and internal policies but i doubt if judiciary will be restored independently and also corruption will end....because if you look back in past....mr. zardari and mr. sharif's parties were the culprit in forcing pakistan under heavy debt.
I dont see a positive change in pakistan politics in near future.
I am waiting for Imran khan to build up his partiy with lawyers and aim for elections in 2018 :-). He could bring some change...
Dr. Muhammad Imran, Basildon, U.K
This could be a new beginning. The politicians must now work together for the good of the country, even if it means keeping Musharraf as president.
Hamad Lone, London, England
how refreshing. a vote for a different kind of mayhem and corruption. well, different to the last lot, if not the previous lot. those with longer memories may find it familiar, however.
jem, london, uk
"Nations with democratic aspirations exist by the grace of the USA"
Haha, well that's big of you Fredrick.. Correct me if I'm wrong but the point of democracy is self-determination, yes? Not just doing what America wants.
Owen, London, UK
They could hardly co-operate any less with us in the war against
radical jihadists in the "tribal areas".
No co-operation is no co-operation.
This is not a stable looking future.
Countries that have nuclear weapons need to be more stable
and romanticizations about ancient fierce tribal traditions
will vanish in microseconds if Pakistan under Nawaz Sharif
"loses" one or two it's warheads to the Taleban or Al-Qaeda.
Pakistan's business is it's own, but it's government should make
no mistake about th retaliation they will provoke if one of
their devices explodes in the USA, and that would be true
under any American President. It's fair to say that any
American President who did not order the appropriate
response would be deposed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff
anyways. So listen up and mind how you go.
Dave M., Tonopah NV / London, USA / UK
While it can be claimed as victory for democracy, a coalition is not a good thing for a not-so-mature democracy like that of pak. There will be unity among the coalition while their common enemy Musharraf is still there. and surely they will try to eliminate him. after that, it will be back to infighting among coalition partners, and military is going to take over the control again. And the coalition politics is not going to allow the govt to act tough on the extremists either. with coalition, you have to accommodate lots of people and religious bigots will be one among them.
One of the requirement of democracy is strong judiciary and press. over the years the military dictators have systematically subdued these two. and the civilian govt doesnt have interest in fixing them either, because in short term it suits them. but long term it is those deficiencies that cost them their governments. So, new govt has to remedy this and establish rule of law or atleast its resemblance. failing which there will be coup again, may be in couple of years if not longer.
Karthik, Chennai, India
The people of pakistan always take the decision correctly. In 1971, if the peoples view were respected, the liberation war of bangladesh could have been taken later (though it was obvious, today or tomorrow). But the rullers of Pakistan saldom respect the view of people. After gaining the support from people, the leaders of Pakistan usually forget them and try to make underhand deal (or forced) with the military. If the leaders of Pakistan had been taged with the people instead of army, they could have saved at least their image in the polital arena. Now it is widely belived, the political leaders, ofcourse along with the help of military power or military along with the help of political persons ahe ruined the country. One muscle flexing of army had done the early breaking of pakistan and future interseption could get another round of seperation, which is being warned by the PPP leader Zardari. So this time pak army and politician should have taken decision how the country would run.
Khaled Faruqui, Dhaka, Bangladesh
It's interesting to note the enthusiasm with which the "return to democracy" is being embraced. Given the history of rigging, even under "democratic" rule, I think the results are to the credit of the present regime.
At the same time, one can't say what this will mean in terms of tangible change; the leadership is still going to be corrupt, and the agenda for reform is still hazy. The one thing that the opposition parties seemed united on prior to the election was antipathy towards Musharraf.
Madeeha Ansari, London,
It will come as a surprise to most citizens of the USA that Musharraf has sustained and accepted defeat in an election in a country most Americans though incapable of democratic political change.
But any rhetoric from a new government that even hints at a diminution in Pakistan's commitment to the eradication of Al Qaeda and the prevention of Taliban rule in Afghanistan will be viewed by the new President, regardless of party affiliation, as a dramatic backward step in USA-Pakistan relations. A legitimizing of the tactics and goals of Al Qaeda by the government of Pakistan will result in consequences that will set the country back generations, particularly economically and possibly in other arenas as well.
Internecine maneuvering within Pakistan power circles are of little interest to the American public. But Pakistan courts grave consequences if those maneuverings result in policies antithetical to those of the USA.
Nations with democratic aspirations exist by the grace of the USA
Fredrick Bernanke, San Diego, California/USA
Great Article. The people of Pakistan have totally rejected the fundamentalists in these elections. They have now lost all the seats (unofficial results Feb 18, 2008) Previously they were ruling this province. Howoever, Musharraf is responsible for killing so may civilians because of pressure of USA his forces have bombed its own civilian people and also USA has also bombed this area and killed many civilians in North West Frontier.People of this area could have been easily been won over by money. In this area the British in their heydays lost three wars though they were ruling the whole world.Its the most treacherous terrain in the world for fighting a gureilla war. Please learn from history the Great Russians were also defeated here because of these tribes who have more weapons, motivation and training in warfare because of traditions of 400 years.Strong actions will not help here please don;t take American pressure. Isolating and dealing with extremism can come politically.
Rahat, Mississauga, Canada
As a well educated professional Pakistani, I think the nation is all up for a change. I have seen our youth so well mobilised than never before. I also think it is time US and the rest of tyhe world realises that the secret behind keeping good relations lies at the grass root level, and not with dictators and military regimes. Today Pakistanis have shown that they are disgusted by Mush and his puppet regime, as well as by the double standards that have become the hall mark of USA as a nation.
Unless USA realises this, I unfortunately see further disgust and anger among even the well educated and professional classes of Pakistanis.
Dr J A Tipu, Belfast, UK
I am delighted to say with confidence that the people of Pakistan have once again shown that given half a chance they will embrace democracy like any other country and they are not extremists. It was president Musharraf, who in his own twisted way was telling, anyone who was willing to listen, that Pakistan was not ready for democracy as it is known in the West. He is now proven to be wrong. The people of Pakistan can exercise their vote and can safeguard its institutions. It is about time that President Musharraf should pack up and leave. The country would be better off without him.
With regard to Mr Zardari, who was said to be keeping the seat warm for their son, I can only say, that Zardari was given the role of "interim" leadership. But by nominating their son he has acquired for himself 100 % control of the party. He still has to face aggravated money-laundering charge in Switzerland. Pakistan is about to get rid of Musharraf and they do not want Mr 10% taking 100%
Akram Malik, Gympie, Australia/Queensland
In spite of poor voter turnout, the people of Pakistan have shown their democratic credentials by voting for secular parties instead of clerical and ethnic based. The military should realize it's shortcomings in government, as reflected by the polls. In the same breath usurpers need to be brought to justice. In the last 8 1/2 years innocent blood was shed, people incarcerated and tortured without trial, havoc wreaked on the whole judicial process wreaking it, perhaps for forever. The people have paid a big price. Now the new leader - if Zardari who lost his wife, and Sharif who lost power and suffered exile - should be a beacon of honesty and integrity in politics and its institutions. Less than 50 miles from Lahore lies India towards which they should turn for a lesson in statehood.
Khurshid Zaman, St. Petersburg, Florida/USA
Dont get so excited fellows. Here is your problem, see what you make of it? 150 million people, median age 15 years, adult literacy 50% and lastly... wealth per head about $300. As a comparison the Westerm world GDP per head is $35,000. But as Obambi says "hope you can believe in" eh?
George Steiner, Lachine,
Most Pakistanis are against terrorism, would love for the country's economy to improve, and disagree with radical Islamists. Unfortunately, thismajority's feelings are often overshadowed by the outrageous actions of a minority of radicals. Until Pakistan elects a government capable of exerting control over the western tribal regions, and preventing their aiding and abetting of Taliban and al Qaeda terrorists, the rest of the world will not take that government, seriously, and will view Pakistan as part of the terrorism problem rather than part of the solution.
Rob, Santa Cruz, California
I truly wish the new government of Pakistan all the best. They deserve a much needed relief from the dictatorship of the past 8 years. In reading Ms Bhutto's book "Reconciliation", it seems claer that Pakistan has to start from ground up. It is really too sad that 60 years after independence, the people have not been given the trust they desrve, and the rights they demand.
Megha Shyam, Corvallis, OR, USA
Rural Punjab the stronghold of the PML(Q) will decide the elections and the results will come in late.
Hold your breath. We will update frequently.
http://www.rupeenews.com
moin ansari, Parsiappny, US