To call President Musharraf a lame duck is an evasion; he is surely finished. As the results from the Pakistani elections on Monday come in, it is clear that he has almost no support in Parliament — and the few in his party who kept their seats are rushing to distance themselves from him. So is the Army, which he commanded until November and which underpinned his eight-year military rule.

As the new coalition Government takes shape it is clear that its first aim will be to overturn his controversial re-election in September.

The shock in these elections for the national and provincial assemblies is that the party of Musharraf, one branch of the conservative Pakistan Muslim League (PML Q), was wiped out. Of his ministers 23 lost their seats. The only one who survived had broken his link with the party before the vote. This was a revolt against the rule of Musharraf even if it was also a sympathy vote for the assassinated Benazir Bhutto, whose liberal, secular Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) emerged with the largest number of seats, although short of an overall majority.

The second surprise is the strength of support for Nawaz Sharif, the head of the other branch of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML N). He is now the power broker: his party controls Punjab, which is bigger than the other three provinces put together. The PPP will have to turn to him for support and he has a good chance of picking up former supporters of Musharraf from the PML (Q) or even merging the two branches again.

Bhutto was killed by bomb blast

The team from the Metropolitan Police’s Counter Terrorism Command have backed the claim that Benazir Bhutto was not shot

Multimedia

• Pictures: death of Benazir Bhutto

• Pictures: Pakistan

Background

• Pakistan in turmoil as ‘martial law’ imposed

• Bhutto escapes as bombers kill 126

• Timeline: Pakistan's period of turmoil

• The man out to oust a President

• Internal crisis gives Pakistan reason for hope

Related Links

• Opponents urge defeated Musharraf to resign

Multimedia

• Video: Pakistan goes to the polls

• In pictures: Pakistan at the polls

There were bright spots in these crucial elections. The gracefulness of the PML (Q) in its concession was one. The savage rebuff that voters delivered to the Islamist parties was another. Their grip on the North West Frontier Province was broken by the Army National Party, a Pashtun nationalist movement.

The polls appear to have broadly met the level of credibility needed for international recognition and for avoiding violent protest at home, although they were marred by reports of polling stations losing or selling voting cards. They were also calmer than the election campaign, which claimed the lives of several politicians including Bhutto, although fears of violence and systematic intimidation in the west explain the low turnout of just over 30 per cent.

It is hard to see the dust settling to reveal the path to a calm transition from the Musharraf years. It will not be straightforward to put together a coalition. The PPP lacks an obvious leader, although Makdoom Amin Fahim, who ran the party during the exile of Bhutto, is a sensible if uncharismatic candidate with a power base in Sindh.

The biggest uncertainty surrounds the intentions of Sharif: whether, given the levers suddenly at his disposal, he would be prepared to work under a PPP prime minister and whether he retains the Islamist tendencies that he displayed when last in power.

British officials, who after the assassination of Bhutto had mused about whether Sharif could be useful in splitting the religious vote, may find that they have had the misfortune to get what they wished.

Sharif said yesterday that he would work within any coalition government to defeat dictatorship. This is barely concealed code for getting rid of Musharraf.

Although the President has said that he would work with any incoming government, since Musharraf deposed Sharif in the 1999 coup the men have loathed each other, even by the standards of a country where politics is too personal.

If that is the aim of Sharif it will not be hard. The PPP and the PML (N) abstained in the September vote in Parliament, which purportedly re-elected Musharraf as President for a further five years. They have vowed to reinstate the Supreme Court judges whom Musharraf sacked in the autumn when they would not pronounce his re-election as constitutional. The parties will also strip the presidency of powers that Musharraf took for himself — including the right to dissolve Parliament.

Musharraf will face all these legal challenges. At the same time the army, under General Ashfaq Kiyani, whom Musharraf appointed, has distanced itself from politics and will give him no support. The resignation of Fidel Castro yesterday did Musharraf a favour, not just by stealing attention away from his humiliation but by showing him what to do next.

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