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Al-Qaeda is seeking increasingly to join the fight against Nato troops in Afghanistan while younger, more ruthless leaders are rising within the ranks of the Taleban, the commanding general of the alliance has claimed.
General Dan McNeill said there was evidence that young, radical Afghan guerrillas, some influenced by al-Qaeda, were moving into gaps in the leadership left by the deaths of commanders who may have shown restraint by trying to avoid civilian deaths.
Speaking to The Times in Kabul, the general said that in the past year Nato had succeeded tactically on the battlefield and against the enemy's command and control structure — a military euphemism for killing commanders. He said: “There are sanctuaries just out of reach of the security forces and those sanctuaries breed radicalised people, so you would expect that no matter what happens on the battlefield there will be repopulation of the enemy. Can they replace leaders who learnt their trade fighting against the Soviets, and who were very good at it? The younger leaders are a lot more radicalised, but maybe not as effective on the battlefield. These types will try asymmetrical tactics — we are likely to see more IEDs [improvised explosive devices] and more suicide bombers.” Insurgents could alienate the population, he said, by killing innocent Afghans in bomb attacks.
Intelligence reports suggested that al-Qaeda was again active in the east of Afghanistan, along the Pakistan border, and to a lesser extent in the south, where 7,800 British troops are based, mainly in Helmand province.
“I would expect that al-Qaeda would be more involved in Afghanistan,” General McNeil said. “They have had tremendous pressure in other conflict areas — specifically Iraq — and they read the newspapers and know the debate among policymakers. There is an implication that we don't have this place covered.”
Since al-Qaeda was forced out in 2001 there has been little evidence of involvement in Afghanistan, where it has been traditionally disliked, even by many Taleban, because of its fanaticism.
The Afghan insurgency was made up of four or five different groups, including the Taleban, some of whom had fought each other in the past, he said, adding that large numbers of Nato forces would be needed until around 2012, when Afghan security forces would be ready to take over.
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Conducting diplomacy with the Taleban and Al Qaeda does not seem likely, from my perspective, to bear much fruit. However, since the US commitment in Iraq precludes the deployment of significant US forces in Afghanistan, and the bulk of our, so-called, NATO allies remain too cowardly to risk their troops in combat, it may indeed become necessary to negotiate with the Taleban and Al Qaeda.
David Westphal, Homestead, Florida, USA
Spot on Ross. Well done.
David Westphal, Homestead, Florida, USA
We've learn't plenty from the Russian debacle in Afghanistan, and we are acting on those lessons. The Russian reliance on massed armoured groups and mechanised infantry was their downfall in the face of a small and mobile force of Mujaheddin, mostly on foot or horseback. The modern use of small, highly professional forces backed up by extensive surveillance appliances (drones etc.) and various forms of airpower is a direct result of not wanting to rely on heavy formations that are easily out-foxed.
The current military strategy in Afghanistan is essentially a variant on the 'Ink Spot Theory'. By taking control of areas and expanding our influence we increase the stability of the whole region.
Reconciliation? Maybe, the example yesterday of Moqtada al'Sadr in Iraq is evidence that extremism can be beaten but we must remember that the Taleban and Mujaheddin are certainly not going to listen to reason, not after so long a fight. At present, a military victory is the only option.
Ross Smithies, Leicester,
I am very surprised by the fact that no one is talking about reconciliation. All the efforts are to increase the number of troops to fight in Afghanistan as if a military victory or the search for one was the ONLY strategy/alternative. There's only so much that fire power can accomplish.
Whatever happened to diplomacy? There are not enough European or US forces to secure this country for any length of time. Sooner or later, all will have to leave and the puppet in Kabul will fall. Remember Mohammed Pahlavi, also known as the Shah of Iran? He had the most formidable army in the region but no popular support, once his masters left him....we know the rest.........
John, CHICAGO, USA
Of course, they are at war aren't they ? Eerrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !!!!
Ian Payne, WALSALL,
Did we learn nothing from the Russians time in Afghanistan?
steve, london,