Only a few hours after landing in Tokyo yesterday Hu Jintao, China's President, joined the Japanese Prime Minister for an informal dinner at a restaurant with links to a famous Chinese revolutionary.

Stiff, symbolic and contrived, it was not much as diplomatic coups go, but the last time a Chinese head of state visited Japan the trip had already descended into irretrievable calamity by this stage.

Jiang Zemin's tirade against the historic atrocities of the Japanese on a state visit ten years ago was a terrible blow to what should have been the most important bilateral relationship in Asia.

The pressures have shifted considerably in the intervening years and the giant trading partners have much riding on the success of this visit.

The attempt for cautious cordiality became clear almost as soon as Mr Hu stepped off his aircraft and declared the development of long-term, stable and good neighbourly friendship between China and Japan to be “in the fundamental interests of the two countries and the two peoples”. The visit, he continued, would open the way for a new stage of the Sino-Japanese relationship.

Behind the comment were well-understood realities. The Japanese Prime Minister is the dovish Yasuo Fukuda, rather than the controversial Junichiro Koizumi, who dominated Japanese politics between 2001 and 2005. His visits to the Yasukuni war shrine effectively ended top-level diplomacy between Tokyo and Beijing.

Rising Chinese nationalism also means that Mr Hu can ill-afford any high-profile failures on his first trip abroad since the protests in Tibet.

The greater difference between the relationship now and ten years ago is environmental. A barrel of oil costs 12 times what it did in 1998 and China and Japan have identified their vulnerabilities. There is now plausible political momentum for the relationship between Asia's two biggest economies to improve.

Only a handful of optimists expect any spectacular diplomatic breakthroughs from Mr Hu's five-day tour. A joint statement on global warming and Tokyo's target of halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will be made, Japanese Foreign Ministry sources said.

Takao Toshikawa, a political commentator, said that the emphasis will be on the outward appearance of warmth. There may be a game of ping pong between the leaders and the offer of a panda to replace the one that died last week in Ueno Zoo, Tokyo. In a further demonstration of goodwill Mr Hu mentioned his fondness of the Japanese television drama Oshin.

The obstacles to true détente remain substantial. Japan said that it would raise the issue of Tibet at talks today. The countries also remain at odds over a disputed patch of the East China Sea that may have large gas and oil reserves beneath it.

Times Recommends

• Should Knox’s trial even have reached the courtroom?
• 'Was it real?' The US bailout nightmare
• Iranian opposition plays the long game