The cyclone that has devastated Burma is set to push world rice prices higher and may also jeopardise the country’s long-term ability to feed its own population, Asian food experts said yesterday.

As well as causing a catastrophic loss of life, Cyclone Nargis appears to have been at its fiercest in Burma’s main rice-growing region, the Irrawaddy delta. With global food prices at their most sensitive for three decades, the effects are expected to reverberate around the world.

The growing fear among World Food Programme (WFP) officials is that millions of tons of salt water have flooded on to the precious rice paddies, making them unfit for planting for some time.

The UN agency said that it was not yet known whether Burma, a key rice exporter, would be able to meet commitments to supply Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. It has given warning of “potentially serious effects”.

The price of rice has trebled across Asia this year, hitting a record $25.07 (£12.50) per 100 lb on April 24. Some local market prices have risen tenfold in the past year and several governments have responded by imposing export bans. Rice is currently trading at about $20.96 per 100lb.

The price rise has put a severe strain on poor families, which spend most of their incomes on food. Countries such as Bangladesh have already been forced to plead with neighbouring states, including India, to guarantee supplies.

Officials in Burma say that it is still too early to know the full impact of the storm on rice supplies but it is thought likely that shipments from the country will be delayed.

“We are still carrying out a damage survey of our rice stocks and will make an appropriate decision after that,” an official from the national Federation of Commerce and Industry told Reuters news agency.

If several harvests are missed as a result of the catastrophe, Burma’s rickety food economy and impoverished population may become a net importer of rice. Given Burma’s uncomfortable relationship with many suppliers in the region, China – which remains close to the military regime – would probably step in as the main provider.

Becoming an importer is not a position any country would wish for under current market conditions: yesterday the Philippines was forced to cancel a huge tender for rice imports because only one bidder emerged, with an impossible price for the goods.

The WFP raised the prospect yesterday of “long-term food insecurity” in Burma, and the president of the powerful Thai Rice Exporters Association acknowledged that it may soon have to export rice to a country that used to produce enough for itself. The region is likely to suffer too. Burma was preparing to export 400,000 tons of rice this year and had been hoping to profit from record price levels.

Commodity traders in Hong Kong told The Times that with rice and other international food markets on a “hair-trigger” for bad news, emerging details of the cyclone could cause further panic among Asian governments still struggling to find a response to soaring food inflation.

Burma is one of the countries that Samak Sundaravej, Thailand’s Prime Minister, recently proposed to draw together in a cartel of SouthEast Asian rice exporters – the others are Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambo-dia. The plan to create a body that would seek to wield a greater influence over rice prices has drawn heavy criticism from importers.

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