The G8 summit is supposed to bring together the most powerful leaders in the world, but seldom have they formed a less credible group than the one that meets in the Japanese resort of Lake Toya today.

Gordon Brown, President Sarkozy of France and Yasuo Fukuda, the Japanese Prime Minister, all suffer from desperately low approval ratings. With just four months to go until the US election, President Bush and his fellow summiteers know that he is in no position to make long-term promises. President Medvedev of Russia is the summit’s fresh face, but he is dogged by the perception that he is the puppet of his predecessor, Vladimir Putin. Only Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, and Silvio Berlusconi, the re-elected Italian Prime Minister, arrive in relatively robust political health.

What, then, can be expected of a meeting whose strength lies in the personal interactions of its leaders?

Climate change

Mr Fukuda has staked his reputation as summit host on this issue, so expect a much-hyped claim of progress, whether or not the meeting delivers it. The arguments continue between the US and Europe, with Japan uncomfortably in the middle.

The Americans believe that negotiation on greenhouse gas reduction targets are best left to a separate grouping, the Major Economies Meeting; they demand emissions reductions from developing countries such as China and India before they will promise drastic cuts of their own.

The Europeans believe that the developed nations must commit first to ambitious and specific reduction targets. Japan has presented the “Fukuda vision”, a promise to reduce Japan’s emissions by 60 per cent or more by 2050. Environmentalists say that setting long-term goals is easy; more important are medium-term targets for reductions by 2020, though these are unlikely to emerge from this meeting.

At the Heiligendamm summit in Germany last year, the G8 said it would seriously consider reducing global emissions by at least 50 per cent by 2050. The crux of this week’s discussions will be whether that language is strengthened or watered down. Can Mr Fukuda persuade the US to match his target? Or will the words “at least” be dropped?

Fuel and food prices

All the G8 countries are feeling the pain of rising fuel prices that, in turn, are worsening worldwide increases in the cost of grain and other foods, forcing poor people into outright hunger. Even the price of the tuna sushi that the G8 leaders will eat this week is set to go up, because Japanese fishermen find it increasingly expensive to go to sea. Food riots have occurred across the developing world, but the G8 leaders have seen demonstrations against rising fuel costs in their own back-yards. The urgency of these two short-term issues threatens to upset Mr Fukuda’s carefully prepared environmental agenda.

The task of overcoming these complex problems is beyond the capacity of even the G8, but the leaders will express their concern about the situation and set out some guiding principles in an effort to calm jittery nerves. They will urge an increase in crude oil production, including long-term investment to that end. They will promise to cooperate in improved energy-saving and in sharing information about oil supply to prevent rumour-driven panic in the markets.

The UN meeting on food and agriculture in Rome agreed on measures to deal with the food crisis, including financial aid for hard-hit countries, seed and fertiliser for poor farmers, and long-term investment in improved agriculture. The G8 leaders will announce the creation of a task force on food and issue a separate document on the problem. They will agree to contribute to a collective food reserve to be dispensed to needy countries. They will urge the phasing out of export restrictions on food, which have forced its price up still further – a sensitive measure for Russia, which has restrictions of its own.

Other areas of potential disagreement include biofuels, which have contributed to price increases by encouraging farmers to plant crops for fuel instead of for food. The US has provided subsidies to biofuel farmers; Mr Fukuda has said that he will urge a rethink of such policies.

Overseas aid

At Gleneagles in 2005 the G8 won praise for its promise to increase overseas aid to $50 billion (£25.2 billion at today’s prices) a year by 2010, half of it for Africa. Since then, however, a chill has passed over the global economy; early drafts of the leaders’ communi-qué restate the commitment only partly, omitting key figures and dates. Any sign that the G8 is watering down its commitment to Africa will meet with an angry reaction from international NGOs and third world governments.

Other issues

The leaders will express indignation over the suppression of the opposition in Zimbabwe by President Mugabe, and cautious approval of North Korea’s recent declaration of elements of its nuclear programme (in return for which the US will remove it from the list of terrorist nations). This will be tempered by Mr Fukuda’s concern that the rest of the world is rewarding North Korea before it has come clean about the Japanese citizens it kidnapped in the 1970s and 1980s.

Protest

One regular feature of the G8 that is unlikely to be seen this year is boisterous protest. The Japanese have mobilised 21,000 police and confined opponents of the G8 to areas well away from the summit venue. According to Japanese NGOs, dozens of foreign antiG8 activists have been refused entry to Japan.

On the agenda

Today Focus on African development in expanded meeting with leaders of seven African countries; bilateral meeting between leaders of Japan and Germany; US-Russia leaders’ bilateral meeting; G8 leaders’ Africa outreach working lunch with leaders of Algeria, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania and chairman of African Union Commission; Japan to hold bilateral meetings with South Africa, Algeria and Nigeria; G8 social dinner

Tomorrow Focus on food and oil prices and on climate change; US-Germany leaders’ bilateral meeting; G8 leaders’ sessions including working lunch of nonG8 countries; Japan to hold bilateral meetings with Russia and Italy; G8 working dinner

Wednesday US-India leaders’ bilateral meeting; G8 working session with leaders of Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa; major economies meeting with G8 leaders plus Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea; US-China leaders’ bilateral meeting; US-South Korea leaders’ bilateral meeting; Japan to hold bilateral meetings with China, India, Mexico, Brazil, Australia

Sources: Reuters; www.g8summit.go.jp

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