Expert analysis: is Thailand safe?

Bangkok was bracing itself for more unrest last night, despite the declaration of a state of emergency after one man was shot dead and scores were injured in street battles between supporters and opponents of Samak Sundaravej, the Thai Prime Minister.

The emergency decree came at the end of a week of increasing instability in the Thai capital, where opponents of Mr Samak are trying to force him from power. But the commander of the Army insisted that he would not use force to remove thousands of demonstrators who have taken over the Prime Minister’s compound in a brazen display of antigovernment disobedience.

The Foreign Office warned British travellers to Thailand of likely disruption at airports and on railways as unions promised to strike today in solidarity with the protesters.

To add to the crisis, a government commission ruled that Mr Samak’s People’s Power Party should be dissolved because of election fraud perpetrated last year by one of its leaders. If the order is upheld it could lead to a general election, Thailand’s fourth in four years, and exacerbate the confrontation further.

“I did this to douse the fire, not to cause a fire,” Mr Samak said in a televised press conference at the military headquarters, where he has been forced to relocate since being driven out of Government House by antigovernment demonstrators. “They [the demonstrators] must be moved from Government House. I had no other choice but to declare a state of emergency in Bangkok in order to solve the problem for once and for all.”

But the head of the Army, Anupong Paochinda, discouraged expectations of a crackdown, adding to the impression that the Army and Government have different priorities in resolving the crisis. “If we thought we could use police and soldiers to get them out with a peaceful conclusion, we would do it,” he said. “But we think that that would create more problems.”

For most of the week police have avoided using force to evict the hundreds of demonstrators, supporters of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), who have taken over the Prime Minister’s working compound. But early yesterday a man was killed and more than 40 were injured when civilian supporters of Mr Samak’s Government marched to confront the squatters, who have sworn to drive him out of power.

Members of both sides, many wearing motorcycle helmets, fought with slings, sticks, clubs, swords and pipes, and witnesses reported gunshots. There were contradictory accounts of which side the dead man came from, but he appears to have been a pro-government supporter who died of a gunshot wound or head injuries, inflicted by PAD members.

A small bomb explosion in a Bangkok police box, which caused no injuries, added to the air of crisis. On Monday leaders of a 200,000-strong coalition of trade unions threatened a general strike today in which water, electricity and telephone lines would be cut off and flights of the national carrier Thai Airways disrupted. Bank workers were also threatening to strike.

Foreign office advice

— If you are in Bangkok, or have plans to travel there, keep yourself informed of developments by checking this advice and the media

— Exercise caution, avoiding any demonstrations or large gatherings of people

— We advise against all but essential travel to, or through, the far southern provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Songkhla

— Railway services are disrupted. Phuket, Krabi and Hat Yai airports have been reopened, but services remain disrupted

Helpline: 0066 (0) 23058333

Sources: www.fco.gov.uk ; ukinthailand.fco.gov.uk

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