American intelligence agencies are all agreed that Afghanistan is in a “downward spiral”, suffering from an increase in violence by the Taleban and rampant corruption in the Afghan government.

A leaked draft of an American National Intelligence Estimate, which combines the views of all the agencies, paints a stark picture of failure after seven years of international effort to introduce stability into Afghanistan.

The draft report, published in The New York Times , said the Taleban had launched a series of increasingly sophisticated attacks from havens in Pakistan.

As a result of the assessment carried out by 16 different US intelligence agencies, the White House has ordered a review of policy in Afghanistan, to be completed in the next few weeks. It will focus on new priority objectives for the US-dominated forces deployed in the country.

The pessimistic intelligence assessment backs up the remark made at the weekend by Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith, the outgoing British military commander in Helmand province in southern Afghanistan who said a decisive victory against the Taleban was unrealistic.

Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, who accused Brigadier Carleton-Smith of being defeatist, admitted yesterday that a better coordinated campaign was now needed in Afghanistan to meet the “significant challenges” in the country.

Speaking at a meeting of Nato defence ministers in Budapest, Mr Gates tried to encourage other alliance members with troops in Afghanistan to mount operations against heroin drug barons to try and stop the flow of funds which ended up in the hands of the Taleban.

Persuading Nato members to let their troops engage in anti-narcotics operations, however, was going to be difficult, he admitted. “But if we have the opportunity to go after drug lords and drug laboratories and try and interrupt this flow of cash to the Taleban, that seems to me like a legitimate security endeavour,” he said. The drugs trade was providing the Taleban with up to $80 million in cash a year, he added.

The leaked US intelligence report said the heroin trade accounted for 50 per cent of the Afghan economy. It also cast doubt on whether President Karzai, the Afghan leader, would be able to stem the resurgence of the Taleban.

On a visit to Herat in western Afghanistan, General David McKiernan, the American commander of Nato’s forces in the country, said: “I do believe that ultimately the solution here in this country will be a political solution and not a military one.”

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