Afghans are increasingly pessimistic about the direction of the Western backed reconstruction of their country with growing fears over insecurity and economic malaise, according to the largest annual survey of ordinary Afghans.

The Asia Foundation poll, which canvassed the views of around 6,593 people from all provinces of the troubled country, found that the perception of progress had significantly slowed since a similar survey in 2006.

38% of respondents felt the country headed in a positive direction, while 32% saw it headed in the wrong direction. Whilst this showed a majority remain supportive, the figures compare to 46% with a positive view in 2006 when only 21% of people who saw things negatively.

"There is a clear trend towards greater pessimism over the last two years," said the survey summary.

Asked to compare their prosperity to the period of Taleban rule 36% said they were better off. That figure was down from 54% of respondents two years ago.

Perhaps the most significant feature of the survey is the apparent polarisation of the country that is becoming evident into a relatively peaceful north in which there are rising local perceptions of security and stability and an increasingly unstable and anarchic south and south east.

The perception of security as 'good' or 'very good' is around 80% for respondents across the north of the country. But in areas of the south-west, such as Helmand Province, it is a mere 26% and the figure has dropped from 47% two years ago.

Overall some 15% of Afghans fear often for their personal safety. But in the south-west and south-east of the country where the Taleban insurgency is gaining strength that figure rises to more than 60% of respondents. The trend in Taleban affected areas is bucked only in the east of the country where US forces have claimed some progress against the insurgency and the perception of security has risen from 54% feeling security was good or quite good in 2006 to 67% in 2008.

In both the south-east and south-west of the country, where Helmand is situated, the danger of harm from the Taleban is seen as only a marginally more significant threat than that generated by Western forces.

The survey suggests that perceptions of threat nationwide are bunching increasingly to the extremes. More people feel 'very unsafe', particularly in the south of the country, but more people than in previous years also feel 'very secure', overwhelmingly in areas of the north.

Of particular concern is the growing sense of alienation amongst Pashtuns, the largest ethnic group in the country, and the group from which the Taleban draws its strength. While 40% of non-Pashtuns feel they are better off than under the Taleban the figure drops to 28% among Pashtuns. 24% of Pashtuns feel they are actually worse off, compared to only 8-14% among other ethnicities.

Criminality is also rising fast in the south and south-east where Pashtuns are concentrated with people reporting a direct experience of crime in the last year rising from 10% to 22% in southern provinces such as Helmand.

Faith in the Afghan government shows a steady decline with corruption seen as major problem by 76% of people; members of the Afghan parliament are seen as particularly self-interested. In the south a belief that elections can produce positive change is held by just 50%, but rises to more than 80% of respondents in the north of the country.

With Western military commanders now increasingly entertaining the idea of creating local militias, along lines similar to those developed by General David Petraeus in Iraq, the survey shows very low levels of popular support for militias.

Those militias which already exist, such as those that enjoy semi-legal status and fight alongside British forces in Helmand, are rated the least trustworthy of all government and law enforcement organisations.

Just 36% of respondents express any confidence in militias, compared to 89% expressing confidence in the widely respected Afghan National Army.

Writing in the Journal of the United Services Institute yesterday, retired General Sir Michael Rose, who commanded Nato forces in Bosnia, also advocated the raising of tribal militias to offset limited Western troop numbers.

"I think the survey shows that the situation is much more mixed than is generally credited," the deputy special representative for the United Nations in Kabul, Chris Alexander, told The Times.

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