Richard Lloyd Parry, Tokyo
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North Korea insists that the rocket is nothing more than a vehicle for putting a harmless “communications satellite” into space. Their neighbours believe that it is a powerful intercontinental missile capable of carrying warheads to Japan, Australia and even the western reaches of the United States.
The state-run Korean Central News Agency announced yesterday that North Korea was preparing to launch the Unha-2, which would "put communication satellite Kwangmyongsong-2 into orbit". The statement confirms what many had feared after foreign spy satellites spotted a very long, pointed and cylindrical object on a North Korean train early last month: that the country will be firing a missile into the sky very soon.
North Korea has test fired a Unha-type missile twice before. In 2006, one exploded in mid-air 40 seconds after launch. A test in 1998 was more successful, with the missile firing over northern Japan. At the time North Korea claimed that the rocket was carrying a satellite that would broadcast patriotic songs in praise of the country’s leader, Kim Jong Il.
“Outer space is an asset common to mankind and its use for peaceful purposes has become a global trend,” the Korean Central News Agency said. “[North Korea] has steadily pushed ahead with research [into] putting satellites into orbit since the 1980s, pursuant to its Government's policy for the development of space and its peaceful use.
“In this course, scientists and technicians of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea [DPRK] registered such great success [with] its first experimental satellite Kwangmyongsong-1 in August 1998. Since then a dynamic struggle has been waged to put the nation's space science and technology on a higher level, bringing about progress in the field of satellite launch.”
Even if the rocket did carry a satellite, the military implications of rocket technology in the hands of North Korea are alarming, especially in light of its nuclear tests. “The North claims it is a satellite, then it must produce evidence,” Lee Sang-Hee, South Korea’s Defence Minister, said. “If it is a satellite, the North must show it to the public. Regardless whether the North launches a satellite or tests a long-range missile, it would pose security threat to the South as the technology involved is about the same.”
A satellite photograph released by a commercial company last week showed a large group of people outside a warehouse-like building described as the hangar for the rocket at the launch site in Hwadae, in the southern North Hamgyong province. Missile or space rocket, the mystery object is not yet out in the open. South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported yesterday that it would take five to seven days to fuel and launch the rocket.
The South Korean Government reported on Monday that the North had fully deployed an arsenal of medium-range missiles, which put much of east and south-east Asia and northern Australia within range.
Leaders across the region and Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, who visited Asia last week, have urged North Korea not to go ahead with a test. Yu Myung Hwan, South Korea's Foreign Minister, will be in Beijing today to discuss the problem with China's Government, which has more influence than anyone over North Korea. “If the North launches a missile or a satellite, it would be a violation of the UN Security Council resolution,” Mr Yu said last week. “It can't help but inevitably bring sanctions. “
North Korea's announcement suggests that the warnings have not been heeded. "The DPRK envisages launching practical satellites for communications, prospecting of natural resources and weather forecast," the Korean Central News Agency said. The satellite, it said, was essential for economic development and the country's space programme.
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