Leo Lewis, Times Correspondent in Tokyo, says that while outgoing PM Junichiro Koizumi is stubborn enough to risk visiting Japan's controversial Yasukuni war shrine on VJ Day, all eyes will be fixed on his likely successor

"There are still six days to go until August 15, the anniversary of Japan's surrender in the Second World War, and already the right-wing activists are out on the streets in their pseudo-military uniforms emblazoned with the Japanese imperial symbol of the rising sun.

"Driving through central Tokyo today I passed no fewer than 40 converted vans driven by right-wingers, with loudspeakers on the roof blasting out militaristic tunes from World War Two at ear-splitting volume, with lyrics like: 'We will crush the enemy' and 'March on, march on'. The effect is menacing, and has on occasion been known to tip over into violence.

"It is against this backdrop that the outgoing Prime Minister of Japan, Junichiro Koizumi, has said that he is minded to keep the promise he made during his 2001 election campaign to visit the Yasukuni war shrine on August 15.

"Mr Koizumi has visited the shrine five times during his tenure as PM, and on each occasion it has sparked a fairly serious international reaction - particularly in China, where there was rioting, and in South Korea, both of which countries suffered badly from Japanese imperialism.

"None of those visits was, however, made on the actual anniversary of VJ Day, Japan's surrender, as Mr Koizumi promised he would if he became Prime Minister. Were he to do it, it would be a real bonus for the right-wingers, as most previous PMs have studiously avoided visiting Yasukuni.

"The trouble with the shrine is that it is not a neutral place. It raises powerful passions. Visiting Yasukuni last August 15 - it was standing room only in an area the size of eight football pitches - I was shocked to witness a group of Japanese students carrying pacifist banners with anti-war slogans being savagely beaten up by right-wing thugs. It is behaviour you really don't see in Japan normally, especially in the precincts of a shrine.

"This is no state-owned monument to the war dead, like the Cenotaph in London, but a privately-owned shrine run by a High Priest, who is a law unto himself.

"The museum next door to it takes a politically loaded line, saying that Japan had to expand its empire in order to protect itself, and condemning the trials at which a number of Japanese officials were sentenced to death for war crimes as a trumped-up tribunal.

"Japan was fascinated to read leaked memos in the last three weeks that finally explained the reason why neither the current Japanese Emperor, nor Emperor Hirohito, who died in 1989, have visited Yasukuni since 1978.

"In the memos, Hirohito is quoted in conversation with his chief chamberlain, saying that he can't understand why the High Priest has recently decided to incorporate into the shrine the names of 14 Class A war criminals convicted at these trials - Japan's equivalent of Nuremberg - as this has posed a real problem and made a visit unpalatable.

"Mr Koizumi is stepping down as PM next month, so he has six days in which to decide whether to keep his promise. I have met him on three occasions, and each time the over-riding impression I took away was how absolutely stubborn he was. Once he says he will do something, he will do it, come hell or high water.

"If the promise seems rash, you need to remember the context in which it was made. In 2001 Japan was a very different country, its banks burdened with corporate customers defaulting on their debts. The country was crying out for strong leadership, and in Japan it is difficult to separate strong economic leadership from other kinds of political strength, including national pride.

"I have no doubt that if Mr Koizumi goes, there will be a strong diplomatic reaction. But I have been given to understand that this year China is unlikely to permit a repeat of the rioting triggered by a previous Koizumi visit, as it is not seen as being in Beijing's strategic interests.

"My feeling is that Mr Koizumi's irrelevance as a leader will suddenly become apparent. China will instead be focusing on making sure that his likely successor, Shinzo Abe, does not do the same.

"Mr Abe, the Chief Cabinet Secretary, has backed Mr Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni in the past. He has never been a great proponent of friendly relations with China and South Korea, prefering to cultivate Australia and India.

"Were Mr Abe to visit Yasukuni next week I have no doubt there would be a very spectacular anti-Japanese reaction. But it emerged this week that Mr Abe has already visited Yasukuni this year, back in April, before it was clear that he had the leadership race sewn up. I expect that he will use this as his get-out-of-jail card not to visit again.

"You can't rule out altogether him doing something stupid, but I suspect that Mr Abe won't go on August 15, and I am sure that his closest advisers will be warning him not to go as Prime Minister either."

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