WITHIN hours of purging one of his most bitter opponents President Hu Jintao of China struck again this week to consolidate his power. He promoted a protégé, ordered a nationwide investigation to halt misuse of pension funds and sent graft-busters to question the boss of a northern industrial city.
The man who engineered this week’s stunning coup that ended the ascendancy of his rivals in Shanghai is busy preparing for a meeting next month of the Communist Party elite.
The plenum, or annual gathering of the 300-plus members of the party’s central committee, presents Mr Hu with the opportunity to appoint a favourite to replace the disgraced party secretary of the glitzy financial metropolis.
His dismissal of Chen Liangyu on charges of corruption related to the extraordinary construction boom that has dramatically altered the skyline of Shanghai was the culmination of months of investigation into misuse of city pension funds.
It also ended four years of patient manoeuvring by Mr Hu since he took office to curb Shanghai’s hubris and emasculate the “Shanghai Gang” loyal to his predecessor, Jiang Zemin.
Chinese politics is opaque. It is distinguished by backroom deals, compromises among enemies and shifting alliances among longtime associates. A tiny elite coterie — the “princeling” offspring of veteran revolutionaries, graduates of the party school or secretaries to the party powerful — jostle for the top jobs. The goal is a place on the central committee, leading to governorship of a province, a post as a regional party secretary, eventually appointment to the 24-member ruling Politburo and, finally, to its elite of elites, the nine-member standing committee.
Mr Hu’s first few years in office have been distinguished by compromises between loyalists in his stronghold, the Communist Youth League, and members of Mr Jiang’s “Shanghai Gang”. However, one of Mr Chen’s mistakes was to challenge Beijing over the implementation of macroeconomic controls. His fall is a clear message to other regional leaders to listen to those at the top.
Joseph Cheng, the director of the Contemporary China Research Centre at City University of Hong Kong, says that Mr Hu has clearly sidelined his predecessor and weakened “Shanghai Gang” members who still hold Politburo positions. They are now unlikely to survive next year’s party congress. Mr Cheng said: “This sends a very strong signal to those who have been insubordinate to lie low for a while.”
Mr Hu could have chosen to tackle corruption in any number of cities, but his goal has long been Shanghai because of the persistent influence of Mr Jiang and his “Shanghai Gang”. His action resembled Mr Jiang’s purge 11 years ago of Beijing’s top official, a move that enabled him to pack the Politburo with his lieutenants. Chinese used to joke that Politburo meetings were conducted in the Shanghainese dialect.
If not over, the glory days of that faction are clearly numbered. When the central committee meets from October 8 to 11, Mr Hu will ensure that his man, or woman, takes the city’s top job. Within days of toppling the Shanghai party chief he appointed the first secretary of the Communist Youth League, Zhou Qiang, to run central Hunan province.
Many more heavyweights with a background in the league, where Mr Hu cut his teeth, are expected to head for high office in the coming months. One, Liu Qibao, was named in June as the party chief of southwestern Guangxi region. Another, Zhang Baoshun, has left his job as party chief of the northern coalbelt province of Shanxi in apparent preparation for a promotion.
Mr Hu is building his powerbase to ensure that he has a free hand to run China during the second half of his ten-year, two-term office. He is also preparing to anoint a successor — a notoriously treacherous business since Chairman Mao swept the party into power in 1949. The chance will come at the 17th party congress next year. At this five-yearly event a new central committee and a new Politburo are selected.
Mr Hu was already identified in the late 1980s by Deng Xiaoping, the supreme leader, as most likely to inherit ultimate power one day. But that was only after Mr Deng had dismissed two chosen successors for being too soft on student demonstrators and brought in Mr Jiang from Shanghai as his third choice.
Chairman Mao’s chosen heir was killed in a mysterious plane crash in 1971 after a failed coup against his mentor. Mr Hu’s succession was the first smooth handover of power in Communist rule.
Several names of potential heirs to Mr Hu have been mooted, but in China the public is usually the last to know. Topping the rumour mill are such possibles as Li Keqiang, the party secretary of northeastern Liaoning province, or Xi Jinping, the party chief of booming southeastern Zhejiang and son of a well-known revolutionary companion of Mao.
The exclusion of ordinary Chinese from the political process continues a tradition that dates back through thousands of years of imperial rule. The low-key and dour Mr Hu has given no sign that he is in any mood to listen to popular opinion on such matters.
But he is not averse to using popular opinion. Anger in China over corruption is growing. The party has acknowledged that graft poses one of the biggest threats to political stability and very survival. Thus the President’s summary dismissal of the Shanghai leader Mr Chen — already believed to be under arrest in Beijing — was greeted with widespread public delight.
Jin Zhong, a Hong Kong political analyst and the editor of Open magazine, said: “The party will use the people for their own ends. Popular opinion is not important in itself, but the party does take it into consideration and, on occasion, uses this in its own struggles.” Mr Hu did not mince words in ensuring the disgrace of Mr Chen. In the decision to sack their fellow member, the Politburo warned against “ odious political influences” and exhorted party members to beware the temptations of power, money and sex. It was a move that has burnished Mr Hu’s populist credentials.
State-run media has, predictably, applauded his determination to tackle corruption. On the internet, a veritable flood of praise has poured forth in support of Mr Hu. One group of more than 100 Shanghai residents even tried to march to Beijing to demonstrate their delight at the end of Mr Chen’s reign. They were reportedly sent back to Shanghai by police.
Mr Hu, who also holds the posts of party chief and head of the military, now stands effectively unassailable to lead China in a slightly different direction from that of his predecessor.
Mr Hu is committed to the capitalist-style economic reforms begun by Deng Xiaoping and nurtured by Mr Jiang, but he has never hidden his anxiety that a swelling class of those who have yet to benefit could threaten party power. He has also been swift to crack down in the past few years on any hint of dissent, closing down magazines or newspapers that stray too far from the party line.
But to implement his policies he needs obedient and loyal regional mandarins. He has already swapped Mr Jiang’s men for his choices in nearly 40 of the 62 top provincial-level jobs. He has accelerated promotions of his men to top posts in the military. In the year before the 17th congress, the party will reshuffle some 170,000 officials from the provincial level right down to townships.
The Chinese say: “When a person leaves, his tea grows cold.” Officials across China must be worrying about how to keep their teacups hot.
