Japan, the US, Australia and New Zealand have spent the past few days frantically seeking to forestall a launch that could take place as early as today, threatening the despotic regime of Kim Jong Il with economic sanctions, immediate referral to the United Nations Security Council and other severe penalties.

Junichiro Koizumi, the Japanese Prime Minister, told reporters yesterday: “I am still hoping that no missile will be launched . . . but if one is fired, Japan will consult with the US and others and will have to take stern actions in response.”

US State Department officials have reportedly resorted to the unusual step of telephoning North Korean diplomats at the UN to warn them directly of the consequences of proceeding. A successful test-firing of the Taepodong-2 missile would have enormous implications for the security of the US, whose western fringes could come within its range.

It would undo the hard-won and fragile makings of a diplomatic rapprochement with North Korea. It could even trigger a destabilising arms race in a region where brinkmanship is increasingly the rule, with Japan leading the way.

Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, said that any missile launch would be a “very serious matter” and regarded as a provocative act.

John Bolton, the US Ambassador to the UN, was speaking to his Japanese counterpart, and consulting permanent members of the Security Council to discuss what should be the international response if North Korea fired the missile.

“The first preference is that the North Koreans not light the missile off. We have made that clear to them,” he said.

Even Beijing, which remains Pyongyang’s closest ally in the region, is reportedly infuriated with North Korea’s activities and the heightened risk that the six-party talks — the most promising chance of normalising regional relations with the hermit republic — will be derailed again.

Japanese government insiders told The Times last night that if Pyongyang proceeded with the test-firing then Tokyo would accelerate proposed legislation to overturn a 1969 parliamentary resolution and legitimise the use of space for military reconnaissance.

Japan has already begun a controversial joint missile defence programme with the US, and has emphasised that if any missile lands on Japanese territory, it will be considered an attack.

Shinzo Abe, the Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary, pointedly referred yesterday to recent changes in the law that allow Japan to act on its own if threatened.

In 1998 North Korea caused a diplomatic furore by successfully firing a Taepodong-1 missile over Japan and into the Pacific, despite protests from the Clinton Administration.

It has launched several short-range missiles since 2000, but has stopped short of testing longer-range missiles since agreeing a moratorium in 1999.

According to Japanese reports, US satellite reconnaissance pictures indicate that North Korea has fuelled and prepared a newer version of the Taepodong missile with a range of between 3,500km (2,200 miles). and 6,000km.

Little is known about the missile or the payload it could carry. Nor is it clear whether the regime has the ability to build a nuclear warhead small enough to fit in a missile.

The Taepodong missiles are of predominantly North Korean construction, though their design and some of the parts are drawn from different sources including the former Soviet Union.

South Korean analysts who have in previous years played down the prospects of a launch are, on this occasion, far less certain that their northern neighbour will back down.

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