When Tibet comes up in conversation between President Obama and his Chinese counterpart next week, it will be because Beijing wants a US commitment to recognise the Himalayan region as part of China. Beijing may also have another unspoken but crucial message — keep India out of Tibetan affairs.

The remote land on the roof of the world has long been a flashpoint for disputes between China and India. What worries China now is US meddling in the relationship, as well as what it sees as Indian tampering with the frontier.

India and China are not about to go to war, according to one Chinese academic: “Both governments have been very restrained. Not a single shot has been fired.” Yet such words are hardly reassuring. How did things deteriorate to the point that a military clash could even be mentioned? Rhetoric has grown more strident in recent months. In October, the People’s Daily — mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party — berated India for “recklessness and arrogance” and for seeking “hegemony”; a serious diplomatic misdemeanour in China’s eyes. Then it offered an answer to much of the trouble, accusing Delhi of “befriending the far and attacking the near”, a reference to the US.

India’s media has carried countless shrill commentaries since, describing China’s arrogance and aggression. Experts on both sides have also sought to blame the third party. Brahma Chellaney, a professor at the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi, wrote recently that all eyes were on the US for the cooling of ties since 2005: “The only major development in that period was the new US-India strategic tie-up ... a strategic nightmare for the Chinese.”

Add Tibet to the mix and Chinese suspicions of US motives only deepen. One Chinese academic said: “Who benefits from this? Who sells arms to India? It’s the United States. [It] is using India as a balance against China’s rising power. But China is careful, and India is also careful. India does not want to be anyone’s tool.”

China will have drawn hope from Mr Obama’s attitudes to India. Relations are warm, but have not reached the level nurtured by George Bush. Mr Obama has made clear his view that China is among the most important relations for the US.

With Mr Obama in Beijing on Sunday, it is no coincidence that the state-run media has again criticised India.

Hu Shisheng, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said that India should recall the 1962 war — a 32-day conflict it lost: “India may have forgotten the lesson of 1962, when its repeated provocation resulted in military clashes. India is on this wrong track again.”

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