As the dust settles after the turmoil of Romano Prodi's dramatic resignation on Wednesday night, Italians are asking themselves whether they are about to see Silvio Berlusconi - written off by many after his narrow election defeat nine months ago - make yet another remarkable comeback.

The answer is - not yet. As President Napolitano began the first round of political consultations this morning with Mr Prodi and other leaders to find a way out of the crisis, Mr Berlusconi himself said he did not favour immediate elections but rather an interim caretaker government - perhaps a broad left-right coalition - which could pave the way for fresh elections "in about a year".

President Napolitano is in any case likely to want to avoid the dissolution of Parliament and new elections, knowing that Italy is deeply divided and that to go to the polls so soon after the last general election - in April 2006 - would not only exacerbate those divisions but risk instability at a time when Italy needs continuity to tackle its economic problems and see through the cost-cutting budget drafted by Mr Prodi and his able Economy Minister, Tomasso Padoa-Schioppia.

Mr Prodi has ruled on a knife edge since narrowly winning last April’s election, with a comfortable majority in the Lower House but a majority of only one in the Senate. He fell, unexpectedly, when he lost a vote on the Italian military presence in Afghanistan by two votes, thanks to the defection of anti-American hard-left Senators and the refusal of Life Senators who could have provided the missing votes to save him.

The President will almost certainly start by asking Mr Prodi if he is able to reform his coalition and carry on in office - even though the tensions between Centrists and the hard Left which brought Mr Prodi down are still there and could bring him down again. Mr Berlusconi has said he is against the idea of a "Prodi Mark II" government for this reason.

But why should Mr Berlusconi not want an immediate election when opinion polls suggest he would win it hands down? Part of the reason is that his own centre-right coalition is also split, with tensions between his Forza Italia, the Northern League, the Far Right and Christian Democrats. There are persistent rumours that a Christian Democratic faction may be even willing to desert Mr Berlusconi and back Mr Prodi.

Some on the Centre Right moreover, think it is time Mr Berlusconi quit: he turned 70 last September, and shortly afterwards collapsed at a rally with heart trouble. He had a pacemaker fitted in the US, and has bounced back, even surviving a public dressing down by his wife, the actress Veronica Lario, over his womanising. But he is still gaffe prone, mired in legal troubles arising from corruption charges, and has privately told friends his political career may be coming to an end.

The idea of an interim government - perhaps headed by Giuliano Amato, the current Interior Minister and a former Prime Minister, and an astute lawyer and respected figure - could therefore appeal to all sides. This would also buy time for Italy to reform its electoral law: the last Berlusconi government abolished the "first past the post" majority voting system and returned Italy to full proportional representation, a move contested by many, and not only on the Left.

A "technical" government would also however be an admission that attempts by Mr Prodi and Mr Berlusconi to give Italy a Westminster-style system of alternating blocs have failed, and that Italy is back to the bad old days of fragile revolving door coalitions.

Meanwhile some on the Left are convinced that Mr Prodi's downfall was plotted by the Vatican, which was fiercely opposed to his government's plans to legalise civil unions, including gay partnerships. Mr Prodi last weekend met top Vatican cardinals to smooth things over, and the encounter was all smiles. But behind the smiles, the conspiracy theorists say, the Vatican knew that Giulio Andreotti, the veteran Life Senator and seven times former Prime Minister, who is very close to the Holy See, would pull the plug by abstaining in Wednesday's Senate vote.

Far fetched? Well, Mr Andreotti did abstain, after allegedly giving assurances that he would keep the Prodi government in office. And his vote was crucial.

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