THE French love their election dramas and the denouement being imagined this time is a surprise victory by François Bayrou — or, as he is known in some quarters, François who?

The dominance of the opinion polls by Nicolas Sarkozy, the centre-right candidate, and Ségolãne Royal, his Socialist rival, has left little room for doubt that one of them will win the presidential election — until now.

Bayrou, 55, a former education minister who heads the Union for French Democracy party, an offshoot of the ruling Gaullist group, is emerging as the “third man” whose steady ascent in the polls two months before the vote is triggering alarm in the camps of the frontrunners.

“I have every intention of overcoming and beating Sarkozy and Royal,” he said recently. “More and more French people are rallying to my cause. What is happening cannot be halted.”

Royal, in particular, is feeling the heat. Bayrou, who was once trailing 25 points behind her, narrowed the gap to just seven points in one poll last week. Another survey showed that if Bayrou came first or second in the initial vote on April 22, he would beat either Royal or Sarkozy in the second round run-off on May 6.

About a fifth of voters who supported Lionel Jospin, the failed Socialist candidate, in the last presidential election in 2002, say they will vote for Bayrou this time, according to yet another poll which gave him 17% of votes in the first round.

This was double his rating in November and much higher than Jean-Marie Le Pen (12%), the far-right bogeyman of French politics who caused a political earthquake by beating Jospin and getting into the second round in 2002.

The secret of Bayrou’s success is an energetic campaign in the French provinces, where he taps into deep disenchantment with the political establishment in Paris.

He has impeccable outsider’s credentials: he did not attend the National Administration School that is a nursery for French politicians; he was born into a family of farmers in the southwestern Béarn region of France and breeds horses.

“The horse whisperer”, as they call him, is no peasant, however. The former teacher has written several works on Henri IV, the French king who helped to bridge the religious divide by granting rights to Protestants in 1598.

Bayrou has proposed creating a national unity government to bring together leaders of all political colours, a “third way” coalition that he claims could overcome ideological differences.

Romano Prodi, the Italian prime minister, has praised Bayrou for raising France’s place within Europe as a campaign issue and described him as a man who has “the simple charm that is typical of the provinces”.

Although his party is allied to the ruling Union for a Popular Movement party, Bayrou has become highly critical of Sarkozy, the interior minister, over the past year. Only a grand coalition, he says, could implement painful reforms that are needed to revitalise the economy. He wants governments to balance budgets and cut labour charges and red tape.

Bayrou has accused the Paris-based media of giving disproportionate attention to Royal and Sarkozy. “The traditional elites have so far underestimated him,” said Marielle de Sarnez, deputy leader of his party. “But they are beginning to take notice.”

It has been noted that at this stage in the 1995 presidential race, Jacques Chirac was running third in the opinion polls with about the same level of support as Bayrou has today. He went on to win. Similarly, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing came from nowhere in the polls to win the race in 1974.

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