Ségolène Royal may be knocked out in the first round of the battle for the French presidency on Sunday — but if she survives she will demolish Nicolas Sarkozy in a brutal duel between intolerance and feminine understanding.

The forecast comes not from a pundit or pollster, but from François Hollande, a man with a difficult role as both party leader and partner of 26 years to “Ségo”, the Socialist who might win the Elysée Palace.

“Ségolène has long been underestimated, as some colleagues have found to their cost. She is a much sharper politician than people realise,” Mr Hollande told The Times. “I know her perhaps a little better than others. She has real character, an inner force.”

Amiable and talkative, Mr Hollande seemed the antithesis of the tightly-wound mother of his four children as he reflected on her bumpy campaign and the difficult role swap when he stood aside for her last year.

The man sometimes dubbed Monsieur Royal he suggested that Ségo’s quirky, solitary campaign was more of a double act than generally realised. “I didn’t want to give the impression that she was under the control of the chief. It was best to let her run her campaign some distance from the party,” he said. The two MPs coordinated strategy daily, however, and at their Paris home it was difficult to talk about anything but the campaign, he added.

As the high-speed train took Mr Hollande to a rally in Grenoble, good news came from the pollsters. After struggling to fend off the centrist François Bayrou, Ms Royal is now placed level with Mr Sarkozy, 52, the conservative favourite.

Despite her stumbles, Ms Royal has never fallen below second in the polls and has pulled well ahead of Mr Bayrou, but she has been handicapped by polls showing that only he could ultimately defeat Mr Sarkozy.

Mr Hollande talks tenderly of his partner, with whom he is bound in a civil contract but not matrimony, and he shows pride in the stylish but obstinate woman for whom the late President Mitterrand predicted a big future. “She hasn’t changed at all. And she is the same at home as the world sees her.” But there remained a mystery about his Ségolène that would help her to win.

The Socialist leader also disclosed that Tony Blair’s Third Way socialism was their campaign model. “Blair showed how you do it. First you impose your issues and then you take over the issues of the other side. It’s simple.”

Ms Royal has lifted Blairite slogans such as “education, education, education”, but she has diluted her public enthusiasm for the Prime Minister since it damaged her image last year. Unlike Mr Sarkozy, she has not visited London during the campaign, “because we would have been accused of being close to Blair”, Mr Hollande said.

Mr Bayrou’s emergence as a credible candidate has dampened Ms Royal’s appeal among the middle classes, Mr Hollande acknowledged. “But if Ségolène reaches the second round, everyone will look at her differently. She will have survived trial by fire and be seen as a winner. That is what charisma is about.”

Charisma is one reason why Ms Royal, rather than her partner, is fighting to succeed Jacques Chirac. An expert strategist, Mr Hollande held the party together after the rout of Lionel Jospin in 2002, but his mild manner and Everyman looks were a drawback alongside Ms Royal’s star quality.

Now he says that Ms Royal has been hardened by the campaign and is ready for a brutal run-off. “Ségolène will have to show that she has authority and a future government around her. She will show that she is peaceful and in harmony with the nation, while Sarkozy generates worry and anguish.

“It’s going to be about different conceptions of society and power. She will rally people. As a woman, she has a different way of talking about things.”

Mr Hollande will not talk of his possible role as France’s “first husband”. Whatever happens he will lead the party into parliamentary elections in June and hand over to a new leader. Some speculate that he could then serve as Speaker or as a Cabinet minister.

First husband?

— François Hollande and Ségolène Royal met at the elite Ecole Nationale d’Administration in the 1970s. She later said he caught her eye with his “humour, character and intelligence”

— Public spats have included Hollande telling Le Monde in January that “the thing about Ségolène’s charisma is that she hasn’t got any”

— Asked why he ignored her line on tax, he replied: “Line? What line?”

Source: Times archives

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