Today's first-round results in the French presidential ballot set the stage for a historic clash of political visions, featuring Nicolas Sarkozy, the conservative candidate and socialist Segolene Royal, who will face each other in a decisive second ballot on May 6.

Mr Sarkozy’s estimated 28 per cent and Ms Royal’s 25 per cent put paid to dreams of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the far right National Front leader, of squeezing through to the next round, a feat with which he shocked the world in 2002. Francois Bayrou, the centrist and only other candidate considered to have had a chance of making it into the next round was similarly disappointed.

The par-time horse breeder from the Pyrenees who pitched himself as the rural outsider may yet emerge as the king – or queen – maker in the next few days as Ms Royal and Mr Sarkozy vie for his 17 per cent share of the vote. Ms Royal’s hopes of becoming the first female president of France in two weeks time may hinge on an electoral pact with Mr Bayrou in which she offers to make one of his allies prime minister.

Mr Sarkozy, a tough-talking former interior minister who wants to make France more competitive, can expect to inherit the 11 per cent of votes that were cast for Mr Le Pen, the anti-immigrant candidate, although this might not be enough to make him president without some understanding with Mr Bayrou.

Ms Royal, a charismatic mother of four who has preached old-style socialism mixed with social conservatism, had worried that a last-minute surge by Mr Le Pen and Mr Bayrou could eliminate her from the next round and had issued frantic, last minute appeals for support.

After today’s elimination of a plethora of far left and right wing candidates, Ms Royal and Mr Sarkozy are expected to use televised debates and more campaign rallies over the next few days to make their appeal to the centre.

Mr Sarkozy will shift his emphasis from immigration and security, issues with which he poached supporters from Mr Le Pen, to try to promote an image of himself as a figure of calm, paternal authority. Ms Royal, meanwhile, will seek to reassure voters that she, too, is capable of bringing France into the 21st century by pursuing sensible fiscal policies such as a reduction of public debt.

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