Three days before the Republic of Ireland goes to the polls Bertie Ahern, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader, has yet to convince voters that his stewardship of Europe’s leading economic success story merits returning him to power for a third term in office.

It is the Irish conundrum: after more than a decade of Celtic Tiger wealth and job creation, a series of budget surpluses and the spectre of Irish terrorism vanquished, why is Mr Ahern struggling to survive? “It’s not the economy, stupid” could be the theme of the strangest election in decades.

Of all the campaign slogans the Labour Party’s “But, are you happy?” appears to have captured the mood. Improvements in the country’s infrastructure and services have lagged behind its economic successes, leading to “quality of life” concerns for commuters, driven ever further out of Dublin by house prices, and complaints about a lack of schools and hospitals in the country’s rapidly growing towns.

Labour is offering an “alliance of change” with Fine Gael, the main opposition party, led by Enda Kenny.

Two opinion polls yesterday noted a modest rise in support for Fianna Fáil and a corresponding drop for Fine Gael, but not enough for either side to gain an outright victory.

They suggest that while the electorate does not want to return the current coalition of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats to power it does not want to commit itself to the Fine Gael/Labour alternative.

If this is borne out on Thursday, with Fianna Fáil losing seats but remaining the largest party, the result will be a hung Dáil, the 166-seat parliament, and weeks of uncertainty as leaders wrestle to form a coalition government.

That could lead to a renewed debate about the efficacy of the Republic’s proportional representation system under the single transferable vote, which has produced a series of coalitions since the 1980s. Ironically, PR was introduced by the British before independence in an attempt to break the surge in support for Sinn Féin. Two attempts to introduce the “first-past-the-post” system were defeated at referendums in the 1950s and 1960s.

Mr Ahern remains popular in spite of investigations into his financial affairs. In October last year he apologised over loans of €60,000 (£41,000) that he received in 1993 and 1994 from business friends associated with Manchester United, when he was going through a divorce. After the apology Fianna Fáil’s poll ratings soared.

He has been described as an Irish Everyman, whose down-to-earth image is no act. He used to be nicknamed “Anorak Man” because of his favourite item of clothing and he is often to be found supping pints of Bass in his north Dublin local at the end of the week.

A daughter, Georgina, is married to Nicky Byrne, singer for the pop band Westlife, and gave birth to twins as the election campaign began. Another, Cecilia, is an author of best-selling novels. All this adds up to the making of the man the nation calls Bertie.

He has displayed a steely political determination to succeed, which prompted his mentor, Charles Haughey, the former Fianna Fáil leader and Taoiseach who died last year in disgrace, to describe him as “the most skilful, the most devious, the most cunning of them all”.

His partnership with Tony Blair in ending the Northern Ireland conflict and creating the warmest Anglo-Irish relations in the island’s history makes him the most successful Irish political leader.

Mr Blair and Bill Clinton paid tributes to him in television broadcasts last week. And yet, in spite of this record of achievement and his personal popularity, voters do not seem inclined to reward him with another five years as Taoiseach.

His set-piece appearances during the election campaign at Stormont in Belfast to see power-sharing restored, at the Battle of the Boyne site with Ian Paisley and in the Palace of Westminster to become the first Irish Prime Minister to address Parliament, gave the impression of the end of a political cycle rather than a renewal.

Last week what should have been the highlight of the campaign – a televised debate between the two main political rivals – proved to be tedious and inconclusive. The lack of substantive policy differences between Mr Ahern and Mr Kenny was emphasised by their matching dark-navy suits, sky-blue shirts and yellow ties.

Mr Ahern has looked tired at times. “The best person to become Taoiseach is myself, that is what I believe,” he said. And while the liveliest barometer of Irish public opinion, the bookmakers, have him as narrow favourite to win on Thursday, the electorate still remains to be convinced.

People’s choice

THE CONTENDERS

Patrick Bartholomew “Bertie” Ahern 55, two terms since 1997 as Taoiseach (Prime Minister). Former Labour Minister, Finance Minister and Tanaiste (Deputy Prime Minister). Leader of Fianna Fáil since 1994. Divorced Miriam Kelly 1992. Two children. Leader of Fianna Fáil since 1994

Enda Kenny 56, former Minister for Tourism and Trade. Succeeded his father, Henry, as TD – Member of Parliament for Mayo since 1975. Married Fionnuala O’Kelly, a Fianna Fáil press officer, in 1992. They have three children. Leader of Fine Gael since 2002

THE PARTIES

Fianna Fáil – Irish Gaelic for “Soldiers of Destiny”. Founded in 1926 by Eamon de Valera after splitting from Sinn Fein. The largest party in the Dáil Eireann since 1932. It has formed the Government seven times since independence from Britain in 1921. Its roots stem from the anti-Anglo-Irish Treaty wing of Sinn Fèin which opposed the British conditions for the foundation of the Irish Free State

Fine Gael – Irish Gaelic for “Tribe of the Irish”. Founded in 1933 by pro-Treaty forces loyal to Michael Collins, the IRA leader who was killed during the civil war.

Irish Labour Party grew out of the Irish trade union movement in 1912, making it the oldest continuous Irish political party

Progressive Democrats are founded on the principle of economic liberalism. Although they polled only about four per cent of the popular vote in the last election, they have gained power through being in a coalition Government with Fianna Fáil since 1997

THE ELECTIONS 166 seats spread across 41 constituencies are filled every five years by a three million-strong electorate under the single transferable vote system of proportional representation

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