Lewis Smith, Environment Reporter
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Hurricanes in the Atlantic are increasing because of natural weather patterns rather than global warming, a study has concluded.
Growing numbers of hurricanes battering the United States and the Caribbean have made their presence felt in the past decade and are forecast to worsen. Global warming has been cited as a possible cause but researchers looking at sediment and coral deposits have now identified natural variations in their frequency.
Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005, was “unexceptional” when historic patterns of such stormy weather are analysed, they suggested.
Global warming may even have been responsible for unusually low levels of hurricanes in the 25 years before 1995 when the number began rising, according to the scientists, led by the Geological Survey of Sweden.
Using deposits trapped in sediment to indicate when hurricanes had taken place, the researchers built up a record detailing their number and frequency going back 270 years.
They found that the decline in hurricanes during the 1970s and 1980s was matched by similar declines in the past, indicating natural variations in the weather patterns.
“The record indicates that the average frequency of major hurricanes decreased gradually from the 1760s until the early 1960s, reaching anomalously low values during the 1970s and 1980s,” they reported in the journal Nature. “Furthermore, the phase of enhanced hurricane activity since 1995 is not unusual compared to other periods of high hurricane activity and appears to represent a recovery to normal hurricane activity.”
The findings are at variance with the conclusions in February of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations organisation addressing global warming. The UN panel stopped short of blaming increased frequency of hurricanes on man-made temperature rises, but said it was “more likely than not” that greenhouse gas emissions had contributed to the greater intensity of cyclonic storms.
The Swedish-led research team suggested that hurricane levels were normal, though they accepted “a future possibility” of higher sea temperatures contributing to more intense hurricanes.The researchers were unable to identify any direct link between increased hurricanes and rising sea level temperatures, beyond the requirement for a minimum temperature of 27C (81F) to be reached before a hurricane developed.
From 1730-2005 there were on average 3-3.5 major hurricanes each year.
The researchers from Sweden, the US and Puerto Rico said that being able to calculate vertical wind shear – the differences in wind speeds at different heights – was crucial in determining the frequency of hurricanes.
Higher wind-shear levels disrupt developing hurricanes; low wind-shear levels fail to batter the storms sufficiently to prevent them developing.
The researchers suggested that higher air temperatures caused by global warming may have led to stronger vertical wind shear, which has destroyed developing hurricanes in the Atlantic before 1995, explaining the dearth.
Deposits of sediments accumulated from increased run-off from rainfall and plankton remains associated with increased levels of nutrients and provided clues to the scientists to historic vertical wind shear and hurricanes.
They were able to check their readings of the data by comparing their findings with documentation of hurricanes.
In the wind
–– From 1995 to 2005 there were an average of 4.1 major hurricanes (categories 3-5) in the Atlantic compared with an average of 1.5 from 1971-94
–– Five periods in the past 270 years were found to have had the same lack of hurricanes, combined with high wind shear, as 1971-94: 1730-36, 1793-99, 1827-30, 1852-66 and 1915-26
–– Six periods were identified as having the same high levels witnessed since 1995: 1756-74, 1780-85, 1801-12, 1840-50, 1873-90 and 1928-33
Source: Geological Survey of Sweden
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Please read "Scientists Rally Around NASA Chief After Global Warming Comments" at http://www.ewire.com/display.cfm/Wire_ID/3967.
The fact is scientists from around the world are highly skeptical of man-made GW theory. This quote from the article cited says it all:
...Harvard University physicist Lubos Motl praised Griffin's climate comments, calling them "sensible." On his public blog, Motl said he applauds Michael Griffin and encourages him to act as "a self-confident boss of a highly prestigious institution." "I have always believed that the people who actually work with hard sciences and technology simply shouldn't buy a cheap and soft pseudoscientific propaganda such as the 'fight against climate change,'" Motl added.
Robert, Los Angeles, United States
This is not about GOD's wrath and SIn - The Bible clearly states GOD does not kill, and HE warns all before destruction.
It is about time that science begins to realize that the warmning on our planet is from Solar Events. Our planet is getting warmer (as is Mars, Neptune, etc).
The Environmentalism of Gore and his hype/scare tactics will be the tool for final globalization of Governments, religions, and more.
Read this book - the Creature from Jekyll Island by Griffin.
Percival Sneed, Fort Orange, The Colonies of America
I think religion needs to be kept out of this....
As with all things natural, Climate is based on the theory of Chaos - Hurricanes are the result of an amalgum of factors that come in cycles.
This still does not mean that we need to drive V8/V12 cars with 10mpg gas milleage though - we could do all ourselves a favour by using solar/wind and alternate sources of enery outside of fossile-fuels.
David, tybee island, ga usa
This meaning is this year harricanes will be stronger and many numbers more than any other time?
lala, Tokyo, JPN
I agree. It's not because of global warming. It's because of SIN, you know do whatever you want, not what's moral and right.
It doesn't matter. Well, it will and soon.
Mark these words well and see for yourself.
Pastor C, Kng, AZ
Naz in London is absoluately correct. I couldn't have said it better myself. Thanks you! Dissent is not tolerable. This trend is growing to the proportion of a world-wide religion that everyone must comply. It is so sad.
Bill, Naperville, IL
I'd be willing to make a substantial bet that this research will quietly disappear and not be widely (if at all) reported. It only made page 20 of "The Times" anyway whereas the latest scaremongering 'evidence' of man's cavalier trashing of mother Earth always seems to make page 1.
M Perrior, Hastings, UK
It is so amazing to think that we know so much, but yet how little we know. Looking at this report, even though it wants to say that GW is happening, the storms record just doesn't show that. What I want to know is how many hurricanes ther were in 2005BC, 1005BC, 500BC, 500AD, 1000AD, or any other year during that time (NOT GUESSES, BUT ACTUAL COUNTS). Also, what were the earths temperatures during these years (AGAIN, NOT GUESSES, BUT ACTUAL DATA). Unless you can give that data, you are only a shake down artist trying to get money for nothing. GW is a religion for those who have no God. Thank you for this story.
Bill, SC,
Today I read a story that Cats are going flooding into shelters because of global warming. I used to think we the environmentalists were trying to protect the environment...but I've come to the conclusion that it's a form of insanity.
The enviro-fascists are trying to use the so-called man-made global warming to take more and more power. It truly is crazy!
Rand E Oertle, Springville, UT
Thanks to The Times for giving such prominence to academic research findings these days. Anyone would think there must be an ulterior motive. But just to point out that the study does have its critics. James Elsner of Florida State University in the US points out the study looks at corals in just one part of the Atlantic. An increase in hurricane activity in a single region could indicate a change in their direction, not an increase in overall activity in the Atlantic.
rod, machynlleth, powys
yeah, and anyways no one thing is the cause. Global warming, nuclear bomb tests, cow flatulence. you can use statistics to prove any point.
aaron, pensacola, florida
Finally som non-manipulative research on global warming.
Maybe The Times could be the first major international newspaper to do research on why the UN and a large group of scientists lend their good name to this level of public manipulation that we have seen in this subject.
Jonas, Stockholm,
The man made GW espousing enviro-fascists will reject this study. The govt will realise that this does not support an increase taxation model, so unfortunately, it will not gain much traction in the media. We have to accept the one mantra we've been fed. Any dissent or disagreement is heresy. GW is man-made, we must accept that without question, we must believe it, we must....
Naz, London,
After the very active 2005 season (which included Katrina) the "experts" had predicted a similarly active 2006. However, last year, there were just 10 tropical storms in the Atlantic and none made landfall in the United States. The strongest one was a class 3 Gordon, which petered out over the Atlantic. With the benefit of hindsight this is "explained" by the "unexpected" El Nino warming of the Pacific in 2006, which presumably "dampened" conditions in the Atlantic. But the low hurricane count last year had more to do with the much lower sea-surface temperatures in the Western Atlantic compared top 2005 than with anything else. How El Nino, a Pacific phenomenon, caused that is unexplained.
What this comes down to is simply that, although hurricanes themselves are reasonably well understood, the outlook for the season is anybodies guess. The current prediction for 2007 is 13-17 named storms of which 6 or 7 make landfall. Let's wait and see.
Ed Zuiderwijk, Cambridge, UK