Climate Change
Tony Blair and Angela Merkel are entirely justified in calling this week’s
pact on climate change a breakthrough. They have persuaded the US for the
first time to take part in global talks with the aim of setting targets for
cutting emissions.
That is a long step away from the Bush Administration’s starting point seven
years ago, when it cast doubt on the science of climate change and dug in to
defend the US’s level of emissions. Now, it accepts the global threat,
although it still does not want to make commitments that would endanger the
US’s competitiveness, particularly compared with China.
The lobby groups who declared that the US’s agreement this week was
meaningless give too little credit to this change of stance, which reflects
a powerful rise in support of action from many groups within America. But
they are right that the G8 deal is still a long way from a commitment on
targets.
Whether this week’s pact can be turned into a firm deal depends on the
diplomacy in Bali in December, when the UN will begin trying to draft a new
deal on binding curbs in emissions to replace the Kyoto treaty, which
expires in 2012.
European countries – with Britain then led by Gordon Brown, whose stance on
the issue is less clear than Tony Blair’s – will have to broker a difficult
compromise between the US, China and India, and other countries which kept
outside Kyoto. The US – as the world’s richest country and the greatest
source of emissions – does not want to be saddled with a huge bill that
would hit economic growth – with a knock-on effect on other countries’
prospects, as it points out.
But China and India do not want their growth impeded by curbs designed to
tackle a problem caused, so far, mainly by developed countries. However, in
China’s case, this obdurate position has softened now that it is getting
close to becoming the world’s greatest emitter of greenhouse gases.
Would-be investors in green technology – and there are many, companies and
individuals – face a difficult decision. This week’s pact has made it much
more likely that companies and countries will face curbs on emissions. That
will increase demand for the technology that can ameliorate those emissions.
But that effect will be pronounced only when the curbs are binding – and we
are not there yet. So although this week’s pact has made it more likely, the
treaty that would really inject the value into the green technology market
is not yet in sight. Much investment will continue to be a good bet, but
still very speculative.
Missile defence
President Bush sandwiched the summit between visits to the two Central
European states, the Czech Republic and Poland, that have become pivotal to
the new East/West relationship. His mission: to reassure them that the new
US missile shield based on their territory to repel Iranian rockets will not
put them in danger. The Czechs will play host to the radar; the Poles will
have the interceptor missiles.
Now President Putin, all smiles, at Heiligendamm, has proposed that the shield
be stationed in Gabala, in Azerbaijan. There are 900 Russian troops based
there and, in the Kremlin view, there could be a joint US-Russian command.
The American response has been muted.
There is enough logic about the suggestion for it not to be dismissed out of
hand. Azerbaijan is politically close to Russia and would therefore dilute
the Kremlin’s talk of a US-led offensive on Moscow. And it is geographically
much closer to Iran than the Central Europeans.
A Radio Free Europe reporter visiting villagers in Gabala yesterday found
great enthusiasm for Mr Putin’s idea. “The Americans are bound to pay well,”
said one. It was the first time that the Azeris had been told.
The most encouraging aspect of the Putin initiative, say US officials, is that
he actually publicly acknowledged that there was a potential threat from
Iran. But the US wants absolute and sole control over the interceptor
stations. The Poles and the Czechs as Nato members are willing to accept
that, but Russia would want a say in what was fired, and when, from the
Azeri base.
And so the answer to Moscow from Washington, after a pause for thought, and
couched in polite terms, will surely be “no, thanks”.
Instead, the US is promoting a “strategic dialogue” aimed at discouraging
Moscow from developing new weapons or flouting arms control agreements. Mr
Putin has questioned the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces treaty that
bans Moscow (and indeed Washington) from having medium-range missiles. And
Mr Putin has also threatened to pull out of the 1990 Conventional Forces in
Europe treaty, which limits the numbers of tanks and combat aircraft
stationed in Europe.
US analysts believe that this militant talk from the Russian President may be
some elaborate theatre before he steps down next year. He is determined, it
seems, that the Russian military should not feel underrepresented during the
coming succession struggle. During the somewhat strained meetings with Mr
Putin and western leaders during the summit it became plain that almost
every East/West issue, from energy security to Kosovo, could become part of
some domestic political game.
Africa
There were more smiling African leaders in the final G8 “family photograph”
than ever before. The promise from the world’s eight richest countries to
pump $60 billion (£30 billion) into tackling HIV/Aids, TB, malaria and other
health emergencies was certainly eye-catching.
The G8 leaders also “recommitted” to doubling aid for Africa by 2010, the
ambitious goals of the Gleneagles G8 in 2005.
Discussions about helping the poor have become hardwired into the G8 agenda
and this year the summit conclusions waxed lyrical for 22 pages about Growth
and Responsibility in Africa. But behind the smiles, the sums did not add up.
The conclusions spoke vaguely about the cash being delivered “over the coming
years”. Health aid for developing countries is already running at about £7
billion a year, meaning that yesterday’s headline pledge would be met in
under five years without extra funds.
And a “recommitment” to the promises made in 2005 was not what antipoverty
campaigners wanted to hear without concrete annual targets, especially since
the G8 has fallen behind by about £4 billion already on the target of
doubling help. At this rate, they will be £10 billion to £15 billion adrift
by 2010.
Aid agencies were predictably dissatisfied and Bono, who likes meeting
powerful people, fell out of love with world leaders. He said he was
“depressed” after meeting Angela Merkel.
The German Chancellor tried to make light of it all. “I didn’t think he was
that depressed. He was able to give a concert yesterday and I am sure it was
great.” She admitted that promises were easy to make and harder to keep.
“But we do not want to be known as the eight who failed on their promises.”
It turned out to be the comment which closed this year’s G8 and may yet haunt
the German leader.
The summit did galvanise the eight into making some new pledges: the US
announced $30 billion to combat HIV/Aids up to 2013 and the European Union
found an extra €500 million for the Global Fund for Aids.
But despite an attempt by Tony Blair to talk up the African legacy of his
Gleneagles summit, this G8 will not be seen as a milestone for the spread of
wealth around the globe.
The pledges to tackle climate change made on Thursday may turn out to have a
far greater long-term benefit for Africa, which is predicted to suffer more
than Europe or the American continent from global warming, than any
repackaging of aid budgets.
Trade
The summit gave a rare chance for key players – the EU, the US, Russia and
China – to sound each other out on whether the Doha round of trade talks
could be rescued. Jose Manuel Barroso, the European Commission President,
who was an important behind the scenes player through much of the summit,
calculates that there are only two or three weeks left to find an agreement
if it is to be successfully sold to the world. Progress, though, was
faltering. The best that Ms Merkel could come up with at the final news
conference was: “We all agreed that we are entering the decisive phase.”
Kosovo
Russia continues to block movement towards the independence of Kosovo from
Serbia and Mr Putin let it be known that Serbia was not yet ready to accept
such a step. Pressure was put on Mr Putin during talks with M Sarkozy but,
as one diplomat conceded, “He hit a brick wall”. Ms Merkel announced that EU
political directors would discuss Kosovo next week. “Time is running out,”
the German Chancellor said.
Hedge funds
A German demand that hedge funds – privately owned investment funds – should
become more transparent got only a passing reference in the final
communique, unaccompanied by any action or recommendation. The US and the
British ensured that the politically-driven proposal – the German Social
Democrats have branded hedge funds as “locusts” – slipped quietly down the
agenda.
Expansion
The G8 leaders clung determinedly to their exclusivity. Other would-be members
were told their applications were going nowhere. Ms Merkel firmly rejected
demands to expand the G8 meetings into a G13, including China, India, South
Africa, Mexico and Brazil. These countries make up the so-called Outreach
Five. Instead they will be brought into something dubbed the Heiligendamm
Process, which will involve regular meetings and consultations between the
top industrialised nations and the fast-track emerging states.
Mixed fortunes
George Bush
A stomach upset curdled Mr Bush’s last summit day but he put in a good
performance. He did not rob Angela Merkel of her (qualified) G8 triumph by
overplaying his hand on CO2 emissions; he has signed up to a UNled effort on
climate change and recognised the scope of the problem. It was a trade-off:
the US acknowledged that Germany is central to its European policy and
should not be brushed off; Mrs Merkel knows she can achieve almost nothing
on climate without bringing the US on board. And the Europeans accept at
last that the US has a convincing strategy for Africa. There was only one
gaffe: Mr Bush clapped enthusiastically halfway through a violin concert,
thinking that the soloist had finished.
Angela Merkel
Salvaged the summit after a week of hostile protest and embarrassing rows with
Washington. Critics sniffed about her achievements on climate change but she
has sold the deal as part of a long-term process. The focus will shift to
Bali in December when there will be an attempt to nail down concrete
commitments. That meeting will be chaired by her Environment Minister, from
her coalition partners and potential future rivals, the Social Democrats. If
he fails, it will damage his party before elections. If he succeeds, Mrs
Merkel will take the credit. She has cemented her reputation as a skilled
stateswoman and as a domestic player. And her normally grumpy husband
charmed the First Ladies.
Tony Blair
Helped to mediate between President Bush and Mrs Merkel, his farewell gift to
the German leader. He was a bit end-of-termish – cameras often caught him
gazing out to sea. He was most engaged on Africa, which seems likely to
occupy him after retirement. Heiligendamm “recommitted” to the goals set out
at Gleneagles, which allows Mr Blair to present the G8 summit that he hosted
in 2005 in Scotland as an historical landmark.
Vladimir Putin
Put in the slickest PR performance, arriving in an electric car and
authorising his advisers to give impromptu telephone briefings to all and
sundry. He came with the image of an evil Cold Warrior and left as a
smiling, if slippery, colleague. He was forced, though, to recognise that he
cannot use the row over the missile shield as a way of dividing the United
States and Europe.
Nicolas Sarkozy
A successful debut, even if his wife, Cécilia, ran away again. US diplomats
were suspicious about his apparent personal intimacy with Mr Putin – they
shared a mobile phone at one point – worried that this could be the
beginning of a new entente. But clear differences between the Russians and
the French emerged on the future of Kosovo – Mr Sarkozy wants to move faster
towards independence for the province. France also announced a Darfur
initiative.
Romano Prodi
Mr Prodi lived up to his reputation for blandness, becoming in the words of
one summit observer, “the invisible man”. Africa lobbyists attacked him for
not taking more energetic steps to boost his aid budget.
Stephen Harper
Mr Harper was given a rough ride by Africa lobbyists because of his reluctance
to earmark new funds for the continent. An hour after the end of the summit,
campaigner Bob Geldof singled out Mr Harper for scathing criticism. “It was
absolutely sickening,” said Sir Bob, “Canada is a surplus country. It makes
me sick to my heart.”
Shinzo Abe
As next year’s G8 host, the Japanese Prime Minister looked ill at ease: the G8
process has swollen to monstrous dimensions. Although Mrs Merkel stressed
that G8 would not become G13 – by including China, India, South Africa,
Mexico and Brazil – she has set in train a “structured dialogue” with these
countries. That could make G8 summits almost unmanageable. Can Mr Abe bring
G8 back to its roots as a high-level talking shop, a Davos-style event?
Ban Ki-Moon
The UN Secretary-General is only just in office and has already been given the
brief of saving the world from climate disaster. What is the Korean word for
double-edged sword?
G8 protesters
The demos dominated the news agenda for most of the week. Thanks to 16,000
policemen the leaders did not register their presence, and their goals
(“Make Capitalism History!”) were ignored. But there was prime time TV, and
the sun shone.
The German police
Leave cancelled, overheated in heavy riot gear, mocked by clowns, billeted in
barracks and pelted by stones: a policeman’s lot is not a happy one.
