At the Russian embassy in London on Friday, the greeting to visitors was
sub-zero. “What is your question?” barked an official through the intercom;
he softened only when told that an appointment with the ambassador himself
had been arranged.
Inside the building the reception rooms are magnificently grand with high
ceilings, mahogany doors and antique furniture. On a coffee table stood a
plate of Jammie Dodger biscuits, meticulously arranged in the shape of a
rose. Next to them was a bowl of Ferrero Rocher chocolates.
Yuri Fedotov, the ambassador, had little time for pleasantries. He dismissed
notions of a new “cold war” but firmly accused Britain and the West of
riding roughshod over Russian sensibilities.
“We expect more respect for our national interests,” Fedotov said. “The very
notion of friendship in international relations is very subjective. If it is
about partnership, it should be on an equal footing, not the partnership of
the horseman and the horse.”
Russia, he added, was threatened by a new American missile interception system
– involving the siting of radar stations and rockets in eastern Europe – and
would take whatever measures it saw fit to counter it: “This radar station
will cover part of Russia, or potentially could cover a part of Russia,
which is now not covered by any surveillance systems . . . That is something
which is going to change military and strategic balance.”
The ambassador rejected the idea that the US system was purely defensive: “In
military and strategic doctrine, the shield is always accompanied by the
sword. You cannot divide them. That’s why Russia, if this happens, would be
obliged to take necessary measures.”
Not since the days of communist rule has such a chill struck East-West
relations. The cold snap started when Putin accused the United States two
weeks ago of “imperialism” and threatened to target Russian nuclear weapons
at Europe if the “star wars” system went ahead.
Last week at the G8 summit in Germany Putin appeared more conciliatory,
offering a deal to President George W Bush to host part of the missile
system’s radar network at a site in Azerbaijan instead of Europe.
Bush and Putin emerged from their meeting putting on a show of friendship.
Bush enthused: “I told Vladimir we’re looking forward to having him up to my
folks’ place in Maine the beginning of July.”
Tony Blair, less than three weeks from quitting No 10, had no need for such
play-acting. He made no secret of having a “frank and honest” discussion
with the Russian leader. As one senior aide said: “He’s got to the stage now
where he doesn’t need to have a good relationship with Putin, he can tell it
like it is.”
He and Putin had barely shaken hands before Blair ordered the pool press
photographers out of the room. “That’s enough, you can go now,” he said.
The Russian president began by telling Blair he was sick of the West’s recent
treatment of his country. He said he was not just annoyed by the missile
defence system planned near his borders, he was also upset at American and
British support for the Orange revolution in Ukraine.
Blair gave as good as he got, telling Putin that western businesses would pull
out of a regime that was not open and democratic. Blair also went on to
demand that Russia extradite Andrei Lugovoi, the former KGB man charged with
the murder of Alexander Litvin-enko, the Russian exile who was poisoned with
polonium210 in London last year.
Afterwards Blair admitted: “The atmosphere on a personal level was perfectly
cordial, but there are real issues there and I don’t think they will be
resolved any time soon.”
Is Putin bent on flexing the power of a revitalised Russia? Is this the
prelude to a new cold war and a world beset once again by nuclear threats?
Or does the Russian hardman, who is grappling with numerous domestic and
international pressures, have another agenda? MOST people in the West
expected the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 to usher in a new Russia,
one that would become free, democratic and capitalist, just like them.
Instead, robber oligarchs seized assets and power without much care for
democracy’s foundation, the rule of law. The result has been deep
disillusion and suspicion of the West, reflected last week in the views of
Maxim Andreyev, 59, who lives in a tiny, crowded flat in St Petersburg.
“When communism fell there was a sense of euphoria,” said Andreyev, a former
factory manager who now survives on odd jobs and a pension of £50 a month.
“Fifteen years ago we thought democracy meant that soon we’d live better. And
we looked at the West in awe.
“But for people like me life only became harder. I don’t crave the repression
of the Soviet Union, but democracy and freedom are luxuries when you have to
worry about surviving amid rampant corruption, crime and injustice.”
The physical hardships have had a deep psychological impact, says Vladimir
Pozner, one of Russia’s most respected political commentators. “Many people
lost everything and they thought the West would help,” he said. “But there
was much talk and little action.”
Putin became president in 2000 and responded to the chaos by centralising
power, both economic and political.
High commodity prices, especially for oil and gas, rebuilt the shattered
finances of the state, if not those of the people. Under Putin, Russia has
gone from economic basket-case to energy powerbroker. Economic growth has
averaged 6.7% a year and foreign reserves have surged from $12 billion in
1999 to $315 billion at the end of 2006.
In a world of $70-a-barrel oil, Russia’s vast reserves give it international
clout: Putin temporarily cut off supplies of oil and gas to former Soviet
satellites until they agreed to pay market prices. He is now rewriting oil
deals with western giants such as Shell and BP.
This posturing has revived national pride. “In Soviet times things were far
from perfect but the rest of the world respected and feared us,” said Galina
Saliyeva, 51, a nurse.
“Then when everything collapsed after perestroika, we became the butt of jokes
– things which had been our pride and joy like the space programme, the
army, our scientists, our nuclear arsenal.
“Now, once again we can be proud of ourselves and frankly we are getting fed
up listening to the West’s constant criticism and preaching.”
It is easy for people in the West to forget that Russia is the world’s biggest
country by landmass – nearly twice the size of the United States or China.
Although economically weakened, it retains the mentality of a giant.
Such is the mood of national revival that even old ogres are enjoying
rehabilitation. In Dom Knigi, the largest bookshop in Moscow, the shelves
are once again full of adulatory books about Soviet war heroes – including
Stalin, the dictator who presided over the murder of millions.
Although some in the West see Putin as a dangerous autocrat with echoes of the
past, the Russian people appear to back him (even allowing for state control
of most media): opinion polls put his support at 80%.
“Most Russians are with Putin when he hits back at the West,” said a Kremlin
aide. “They like to see that Russia is once again standing up to America,
that it has its own interests which it will pursue and protect.”
Among Russia’s neighbours the view of Putin and his country is very different.
Indeed, the changing nature of the states around Russia that were once part
of the Soviet empire are important to understanding Putin’s new aggressive
stance. AFTER the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia still saw itself as
wielding influence in its former satellites, from Estonia through Belarus,
Ukraine, Georgia and beyond. After September 11, 2001 Putin saw himself as
aiding the West by allowing US forces to operate out of bases in Russia’s
former southern region.
“There was a meeting between the Russian military commanders and major
political forces to decide what to do about 9/11, what support to give,”
said Dr Alena Ledeneva, an academic now based in Britain who knows Putin.
“Out of 21 people at that meeting only two thought that the president of
Russia should support the president of the United States. One was Putin
himself.”
Putin was the first foreign leader to telephone Bush after the attacks and
offer help. But Russia got little in return. Later the United States pulled
out of the 1972 antiballistic missile treaty as it prepared to develop its
new defence system.
Worse, the “colour revolutions” of Ukraine and Georgia saw popular protest,
encouraged by the West, overthrow leaders sympathetic to Russia. Georgia
even applied to Nato and the European Union for forces to replace Russian
peace-keepers in the region. Russia began to feel encircled.
A vicious spiral was developing. The more Putin exerted order and control in
Russia and attempted to maintain its influence in the former Soviet states,
the more vocal became the outside opponents.
Boris Berezovsky, the oligarch who sought asylum in Britain, called for the
overthrow of Putin. So did Garry Kasparov, the chess champion who has homes
in Russia and the United States. Even Yegor Gaidar, the former Russian prime
minister, said: “Sometimes Russia seems to be heading towards fascism.”
Certainly Putin’s administration has actively encouraged the spread of
patriotism and nationalism among ordinary Russians, in particular among the
young.
The Kremlin founded Nashi, a youth group reminiscent of Komsomol, the
communist youth organisation. Nashi members like to march in T-shirts
emblazoned with Putin’s portrait. Their antiwestern actions have included
harassing the British ambassador in Moscow, disrupting meetings organised by
Russia’s beleaguered opposition, burning literature considered too liberal
and protesting against attempts last month to stage the country’s first gay
parade in Moscow.
In April tiny Estonia, a country of 1.4m people of whom 400,000 are Russians,
decided to move a statue of a Russian soldier, erected in 1947, from the
centre of Tallinn, its capital, regarding it as an unwelcome reminder of 50
years of Soviet occupation.
The plan sparked riots, apparently orchestrated by the Russian embassy in
Tallinn, and a “cyber-attack” from the east. The internet
servers for Estonian government departments, media organisations, banks and
businesses suffered a mass “denial of service” by computers based in Russia.
Russian espionage activities are also as strong as ever, intelligence
officials from several western countries said last week. A Canadian
intelligence study said that espionage had “reached a level of prominence .
. . that has not been witnessed since the cold war”.
Do these domestic and international tensions really compare with the days when
the two superpowers faced each other with their fingers on the nuclear
button? To the Russian defector Oleg Gordievsky, it is all very simple: yes,
Putin is stuck in a time warp. “He is an old-fashioned KGB apparatchik,”
said Gordievsky. “He doesn’t know any other way to deal with the West. He
views it like the 1970s.”
OTHERS believe it is more complicated. Professor Robert Service, the author of
a new history of communism, said: “It is a gross misuse of language to call
[the present tensions] a new cold war. There aren’t great allies lining up
behind Russia to take on the United States. What is in process is a new
world order, or even disorder, coming into being, with regional powers
asserting themselves in the aftermath of the debacle in Iraq.”
That new order might include a Russia-China axis. In 2005 Russia and China
held their first joint military exercise and are discussing new energy
pipelines. Domestic politics is another important factor in Putin’s stance.
His second four-year term as president ends in March and under the Russian
constitution he cannot stand for a third consecutive term.
However, many Russians would like him to continue and some observers see his
tough stance against the West as a ploy to engineer sufficient popular
support to allow him to remain in power. “There’s a lot of talk about it,”
said Evgeny Lebedev, a Russian living in London whose father owns one of the
last independent newspapers in Russia. “Prominent politicians have been
suggesting he should stay on. Russians have this idea: why replace something
that is kind of good? What might come afterwards might be much worse.”
Other observers believe that Russia’s belligerence has more to do with its
desire to retain influence in regions that it still regards as its own and
that the West has simply taken its eye off the ball.
Jonathan Eyal, director of studies at the Royal United Services Institute,
said: “We have been taken up with the Americans on the war on terror while
rather glibly assuming that postcold war settlement in eastern Europe
remained in place. We have rather forgotten that Russia has never accepted
that settlement.”
So far the Russian bear is doing no more than gnawing and growling. It remains
relatively weak. It needs the West as customers. And, as one Russian expert
pointed out last week, many of the Russian elite now send their children to
school in Britain.
However, flashpoints are looming. America seems determined to press ahead with
its missile system and on Friday Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state,
implied that it was unlikely to accept Putin’s offer of siting radar in
Azerbaijan. “One does not choose sites for missile defence out of the blue,”
she said.
Even Russians admit that their country, still laden with nuclear weapons,
remains highly unpredictable. “Nobody is totally in control in Russia,” said
Ledeneva. “It’s impossible to be in control of that country. In a way I
think even Putin himself doesn’t know what will come out of this.”
POTENTIAL FLASHPOINTS
Kosovo
The Balkan region remains legally part of Serbia, though since 1999 it has had
semi-independent status under United Nations protection. A recent UN report
said “the only viable option” for the territory was to move to full
independence. Yesterday US president George Bush said independence should go
ahead.
But Russia, an old ally of Serbia, has long been opposed. Last week Putin said
that Russia would veto any UN resolution for Kosovan independence.
One European official said: “We have not made progress. In fact we saw a
hardening of the Russian position there.”
Oil and gas
The Kremlin is threatening to exert further control over Russia’s gas and oil
supplies by removing a licence from TNK-BP, a joint venture half-owned by
Britain’s biggest company, to exploit a giant Siberian gasfield.
Analysts predict that by 2020 up to 70% of Britain’s electricity will come
from power stations fired by imported gas, much of it from Russia. Putin has
already temporarily cut off supplies to some states in rows over price rises.
Extradition
Last week Tony Blair again pressed for the extradition from Russia of Andrei
Lugovoi, the former Russian agent accused of murdering the dissident
Alexander Litvinenko who was poisoned with radioactive polonium in London.
Russia has refused. It, on the other hand, is demanding to extradite Boris
Berezovsky, a former Kremlin insider who fled to Britain.
Georgia and Ukraine
The former members of the Soviet Union have grown increasingly independent and
now want to join Nato, as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have already done.
But Russia sees such moves as creeping encirclement by the West and a threat
to its security.
Alena Ledeneva, a Russian academic at the School of Slavonic and Eastern
European Studies in London, said: “[President] Putin put a lot of effort
into trying to work within the Nato frame. But what Nato has done is start
what we now call the encirclement of Russia.
“The outcome is that Nato becomes larger and closer to Russia, which Russians
find very difficult to accept. There is a public perception of Nato as
something that has a cold war mentality.”
Iran
The Kremlin has been helping Iran build its first nuclear power station,
though work stopped earlier this year after a row over unpaid bills. Russia
is also helping Burma, Bulgaria, China and India build nuclear plants.
The Kremlin argues that all countries have the right to nuclear technology for
energy supply, but the West fears that states such as Iran might use it to
develop weapons.
The collapse of communism in Europe gave a real chance for a new peaceful settlement. It's still not too late.
If the US and Russia can get along, Europe will fall in line.
It's good that Russia has an independent government, and the 'West' should co-operate in the legal investigation into the asset stripping in Russia by the oligarchs.
John, Edinburgh, UK
John, while India has economic ties with Russia and they buy Russian Migs for their Air Force, the idea that India, a prominent member of the Commonwealth would join an alliance with Russia and China against the west is absurd at best. India went to war with China already, and those Indian Air Force Mig fighter pilots regularly train with the British Royal Air Force, and on occasion the U.S. Air Force. The Swiss Air Force, just like their Indian counterpart, uses Russian along with western hardware, does that make Switzerland a potential Russian ally?
I see India (which is another emerging superpower), with the world's fifth largest navy (which is rapidly becoming a blue water one), a highly trained military, and a stable democracy, as being a counterweight to China's military expansion.
Last point, while the French and Americans may enjoy bashing each, the idea of France and Japan aligning with Russia against the US is even more absurd.
Cameron Gill, Basseterre, St. Kitts-Nevis
Unlike the US, Russia and China do NOT threaten regional stability anywhere in the world. Russia has no interest to invade and occupy Europe; China is not interested to invade or occupy Asia. What exactly has the West to be worried about?
The world does not belong to the US.
Anton Lyn, Guangzhou, China
Alice in Moscow, I think you need to wake up and smell the coffee! $13b is a pin prick of investment, on top of which there has been literally nothing of any note in Russia in over a decade! It stll leaves Russia way way back in the worlds economic field and if it persists in its aggresive rhetoric then its going to bite the hand that feeds it. The West.
As you're in Moscow you should well know the immesnse relucance of west ernmoney and business to get into the market there. One PR conference doesn't make a summer.
This is all grandstanding by a Kremlin that seems to have become addicted to publicity, any publicity.
Get a clear smell of the coffee and reat Russia is not a global power and has far to many domestic issues to solve to be worrying about such nonesense. Remener this is the self proclaimed super energy supplier that can't even adequately supply its own people!
Marcus Gates, Vienna,
" Within 5 years, US will have to deal with a powerful united front - China, Russia & India; add to the fact that nations that are not too keen about the way US conducts itself will be eager to join this front ; think Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Japan,France, and the countries in Middle East to name a few "
John, Detroit, USA/MI
Why would France and Japan ally with those countries? None of them believe in western values
You don't know what you're talking about.
Nicolas, Paris, France
Britain & Europe,
Your threat is not to the east, it is across the Atlantic to the west. It was not Russia who proposed installing missiles in Europe. Wake up!
Dima, Darwin, Australia
Mordor is on the rise again. The orcs are multiplying. An evil has been allowed to survive. Will a Frodo step up?
Fischer, aspen, CO
Russia "has mentality of a giant"? Well, yeah, because it is... But why Britain doesn't have a mentality of a midget which it also is - is beyond me.
odin, seattle,
Of course, it i interesting to read the point of view of Dr Lebedeva, who have met Putin (wow, it's like in my old school reading book 'person who have met Lenin!), especially about 'encircled Russia'. However, why not add a comment of a Georgian or Ukrainina expert about encircled Georgia and Ukraine? Especially Ukraine that is facing now new elections and new fight with Russian pressure.
Unawa, Kyiv, Ukraine
“Boris Berezovsky, Yegor Gaidar “Sometimes Russia seems to be heading towards fascism.”
Fascism?!! Sorry, guys. But it were you who must be blamed for supporting fascist ideas. It were you and you allies who brought Russia to the verge of extinction.
Oleg Gordievsky?!! Hm, do you really think that we are listening to betrayers and defectors?
P.S. Let’s start cooperation finally. At least late economic forum in St. Petersburg showed that it’s possible and must be!
Russian Ivan, Moscow , Russia
Some of the previous letters appear to believe that Russia will automatically ally itself economically to China in the future. I am not so sure.
150 Million Russians are more concerned about their
1.3 Billion Chinese neighbours than many Westeners think.
Hundreds of thousands of Chinese, willing to work longer hours for less money than native Russians, have already just wandered into Russia to get work.
The Russia/China border is very, very long and quite impossible to seal completely.
The movement of Chinese illegals into Russia is expected to increase vastly from now on, as Mafia gangs on both sides seek to profit from people smuggling..
Russia, like other developed countries, can expect illegal immigration to be one of its top concerns in future and it could cause tensions between the two countries.
David Wayland, Fareham, UK
"democracy and freedom are luxuries when you have to worry about surviving amid rampant corruption, crime and injustice.” (someone said)
Too true, that's also why feminism hasn't had a chance to develop here. Thank God. It has been survival vs navel gazing, but now people are too focused on the new consumerism = no need to fret about democracy (after all that is a disappointing concept if you look at the UK and US), the prospect of buying the latest car is far more enticing. Come on, you know all about it, been there, done that, got the t-shirt and still doing it.
"Russia is young, wealthy and strong???? Dont think so.
Not sure what youve been reading." Caleb in London
Erm, Caleb, Russia just signed $13,5 BILLION over a three day economic forum in St Petersburg where 65 countries were represented and 9,000 business leaders attended.
Please, wake up and smell the coffee.
Alice, Moscow,
Lois M. Wiedner of Montana, USA remarks that " Russia is young, wealthy and strong. Are people in the States jealous?" Oh dear!!!! Russia is an old country, having been founded by Viking settlers. It easily predates the USA and its process of geographical expansion started with the first Romanov. The USSR was Greater Russia writ large. Its empire has collapsed. As far as being strong its population is in decline and it is very dependent on oil and gas. Its advanced technology or services sectors of the economy are still small. It is a huge nuclear power, but you cant feed your people with bombs. Speaking of empires, may I enquire from the Americans when they are going to return the 50% of Mexican territory they filched in wars of aggression; Hawaii to the natives of that island; & Guantanamo Bay conveniently handed over in perpetuity by the first stooge Cuban American President. Need I mention an attempt by Congress in their May 24 benchmarks to force privatization of Iraqi oil fields
Anthony Radbill, Antwerp, Belgium
I am very interested in what Michael Squires from Australia wrote. Life was especially interesting in Russia in the Yeltsin years when a group of people who did not even have the word "Russian" in Section 4 of their Soviet Union passport (the nationality section) stole Russia's wealth. One of them acquired 6% of the world's oil for the price of Donald Trump's beach house in Florida. Those were the real gangs. I understand that Australia is also being enlivened by a hugely expanding Chinese population and the even more prolific Middle Eastern gangs. It seems that they have virtually cleared the famous Sydney beaches of unaccompanied women.
Marco Borg , London, UK
I always find the politicisation of the Boris Berezovsky extradition in the context of America's refusal to extradite 26 Americans to an ally, Italy, to stand trial for crimes committed there so bigoted.
Most prosecution authorities in the world weigh a case on the basis of "the probability of a successful prosecution". That is why a prosecutor may sometimes decline to prosecute even strong circumstantial cases. Charging someone with a crime when you have no prospect of a successful prosecution is called harassment (think Mugabe)
The British prosecution authority will have known in advance that the Russian constitution forbids the extradition of a citizen to stand trail under a foreign legal authority. Under such circumstances, most authorities would have used the evidence in their possession to try to prosecute the case in the foreign country through the local prosecution authority - and we have seen the South Africans, Americans, British, Australians, etc. do this several times.
Flytrap, Johannesburg, South Africa
I think what US is also trying to do with this missile defense crap is to weaken Europe by encouraging a disagreements between new and old EU members. I think that Poland and other new members have to think twice about the scenario when US uses a "bad, angry" Russia
threat to take a stronghold within Europe and prevents military and economical unification of Europe. US knows that it is difficult for them to control Germany and France, however why not to use young "hot-headed" youngsters to advance its own goals.
Dennis, Philadelphia, USA
The strong suspension of military balance with the western allies, has projected the image of a hound dog out to bulldoze any rising nation. Take Iraq for example, the US is still persistent with its strategy for no reason. There may be apparent nuclear threats from the dis-satisfied nations in future. Now we have reached a
no-win and no-return situation. Both parties of these polarised forces (West vs Russia's so-called alliance), are trapped within their own imperialist and defensive designs. The aspects of this polarisation is very dynamic and the parties(less powerful) will shift depending on the viability and survival needs. One thing is for sure- unless a strong reconciliatory gestures is offered by all concerened, it will be a serious situation. The discontent inculcated within Islamic nations may take a rise, echoing Russia's voice against the US. The strategy between Russia and Iran can prove to be decisive- Eastern Europe may be vulnerable with this latest US move.
Kuldip, Delhi, India
Some things are missed here.
1) Russia is well entrenched in the world economy. Most importantly in the customer / provider sense, but also in the sense that its entire elite owns property abroad, sends its kids to school in the UK and likes to ski in Switzerland. For example, the deputy prime minister's son is a (now imprisoned!) investment banker in London. I'd bet that Putin's daughters are also doubtless are well integrated into the west by schooling and language.
2) There is no fundemental idealogical debate between the 2 countries.
These 2 reasons preclude all the talk of a "new cold war".
3) There is a misunderstanding about Russian style / culture. Putin's hectoring, quid pro quo, 'two wrongs make a right' style is fairly typical in Russia.
4) Kosovo = Chechnya / Transdniestr / parts of Georgia ... I don't see the Russians giving up this principle any time soon...
Alan, London, UK
Why are America and Britan blind to the fact that our closest brush with nuclear war came when Kruschev put the saber against the throat of the USA with nuclear tipped missles in Cuba? A 9 minute flight of missles from Cuba to Washington is pretty much equal to the 9 minute missle flight from Poland to Moscow. Russians see the USA putting a saber to their throats in exactly the same way, and they now cheer Putin for standing up to Bush exactly the same way that Americans cheered JFK for standing up to Krushchev.
FPW, San Mateo, USA/California
"By the way, India could destroy the United States in a matter of weeks. Seeing how all our computer technical support is over there all they would have to do is give the wrong answers whenever we call"
As usual, you Americans must have bullied and stolen the brightest tech support guys over in India, because over here in the UK, we ALREADY get wrong answers everytime we call !!
We also get pissed off when someone speaks slower than a tortoise, going over every detail, when we are paying premium rates for the "priveledge" of speaking to someone we dont understand half the time. But thats an argument for another day.
Pete, Cov,
Why is everybody up in arms about Putin wanting to put rockets in his own country, when this is a reaction to the US putting rockets all over Europe? That missile defense system isn't a set of brollies, you know.
starling, Lancaster,
Russia and The West (US + UK) both have lots of ambition. We reap what we sow in the past. US foreign policyranges from military secrets giveaways and "Oral Office" parties (Clinton) to starting a war with a nation just to remove a former puppet (Iraq). When a conversation comes to foreign policy, it heats up. People can be friends, countries are made of people and pilitical freaks who, in turn, protect their lobbying buddies. Policy is ade by big money and litte ideology. People, be patient and worhip God. Whe Christ comes back, He will judge all.
Konstantin, Kursk,
I think the part in this article where it reads only 2 out of 21 voted to support the U.S. President after 9/11 clearly makes the case for deploying a missle defense system.
The statement that no one is totally in control there is another reason to deploy it.
The slam dunk is...they're helping Iran go nuclear.
If you live in a bad neighborhood you lock your doors. In this case the lock is a missle defense system.
Murph, Madisonville, USA/KY
Even though i dont like what the putin and his side kicks are doing. i believe the major blame goes to the west. west loves to play kick the non-western countries until either they become your slaves or get bombed to pulp. if you slap someone on his left cheek, dont expect him or her to give you the right cheek also. russia has been slapped too many times i guess. now its their turn to do the slapping.
HH, KSA,
As an American, the live and let live attitude of the vast majority of Americans has been destroyed by Bush and his buddies. We literally have a government that is out of our control. We are just counting the days when his term of office expire. We don't want to kick him out of office as the Vice President would be even worse for us and the world. Americans are hanging our heads in shame right now because we have a corrupt government.
M. Nelson, MANHATTAN, USA
All the Anti US band wagon jumpers really need to take a long hard think,if they're capable, further down the track if China or Russia became the worlds largest power on all fronts and economies would that be better than it is now?
Anyone with any common sense knows the potential for disaster is far higher with countries such as China or Russia dominating the world.
The US may have done some not so agreeable things but if they stop playing world police sooner or later the world will beg them to help out somewhere.
The US should let the ungrateful western partners fend for themselves from now on and only protect its own local US borders and interests. Better a US bully than a North Korean or Chinese bully anyday.
Caleb From New Zealand, London,
China is interested in securing regional suzerainty. While cooperative arrangements of convenience with Russia are likely to continue, just as they will with the United States, fundamentally and immutably China will continue to view both as rivals. Thus we will not see regression toward a bipolar geopolitics, but evolution toward a weakly multipolar arrangement. The multipolarity will be weak because United States power will continue to be plainly supreme for the foreseeable future. No state except, perhaps, Iran, is forming concrete plans for direct forceful confrontation with the United States. Such confrontation is and will remain for the foreseeable future simple national suicide.
Daniel Pouzzner, Moscow, Idaho
From The TimesJune 7, 2007
Business will turn its back on Russia unless you reform, Blair warns Putin
With the $13,5 BILLION of deals signed this last weekend at St Petersburg, it would seem Tony Blair might be feeling a little indigestion this morning, after having to eat his words. How the Russians must be laughing.
Alice, Moscow,
The mere fact that, some time in the future we MIGHT have to depend on Russian gas or oil should convince doubters of the extreme necessity for our own nuclear power stations. Give the Russians a potential hold over us and sooner or later they will use it
David, St Albans, UK
"Russia is a threaty and needs to be treated as such. "
Why? What have they done? How are they more of a threat than the US, exactly?
starling, Lancaster,
All this global dreaming of a world ruled by Russia and China in the near future is wishful thinking. If the comments I've seen here now and in the past from much of the rest of the world, longing for Soviet rule, are at all representative of the thinking of people around the world, we in the US don't have much to worry about for a long time to come.
A country's power and economy is in large part based on the common sense of its people, which helps it to hold down corruption, innovate, and cooperate in a democratic system. Countries such as Russia and China and India have a long way to go to develop a system that allows for this in a relatively equitable way. I think this will be the case for years to come, because for whatever reason, be it say, as the Russians claim, part of their "character" not to function in a Western-style democracy, or education, their people are not ready for freedom. If the people don't have the common sense to handle freedom, they will not rule the world.
Claudia, Atlanta, USA
I don't think Russia will be completely encircled by NATO.
Russia, China and other Middle Eastern countries will become allies.
Ruslan , Osh, Kyrgyzstan
Truth is stranger than your fiction. Wake up and smell your coffee. China or other Middle Eastern countries will never be strategic allies of Russia. Two tigers cannot get along in the same forest. It's too small for both of them
Russia is young, wealthy and strong. Are people in the States jealous?
lois m wiedmer, sidney , USA Montana
It's the most silly thing I've heard so far. Leave the US and move to Russia, why not?
fireyez, Moscow,
To respond to an earlier poster, I hardly think that the people of Afghanistan ever saw the Soviet Union as a "provider" of anything, with the possible exceptions ot the military aid it gave to a tiny Communist clique that ran the country and the ensuing slaughter of much of its population in a war that makes the current Afghan conflict look like a cream-pie fight.
Remember, the West had a chance to "purse real peace" with Hitler too, if only it had given him free reign to colonize eastern europe and murder every single Jewish man, woman and child in existence.
The United States and its allies invaded Kosovo as a pre-emptive action to prevent the "ethnic cleansing" of innocent civilians. Upsetting Russian sensibilities was, correctly, the least of the West's worries as it was the fear of a Russian reaction that lead to the West standing on the sidelines in Bosnia & Croatia where the cost of the delayed western intervention is all too clear to see today.
Ross Kavanagh, Cork, Ireland
There are several imbalances in the world: Russia sells weapons to every dictator, drug lord, or mobster. France is the largest lender to the world's most authoritarian dictators. Germany will sell dangerous technology to anybody with cash. China is funding the Sudanese government so that it can continue its genocide in Darfur. Iran no longer hides the fact that they directly fund & train terrorist groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, etc.
Putin is the neighborhood bully - cutting off oil and gas supplies to adjoining countries for any political criticism; banned trade with Estonia because they took down a Soviet statue; won't stop selling nuclear bomb making materials to Iran in spite of U.N. objections; never stopped sending arms to the genocidal Slobodan Milosevic; steals infrastructure investments of foreign companies; and uses the police to prevent the slightest public criticism.
Unless Putin wants to invade Europe, what exactly is the problem?
Michael, Rio Rancho, NM, USA
Putin want to have zone of influence in Central Europe. That's why he can't accept the shield in Poland and Czech Republic.
Wawrzyniec, Szczecin, Poland
The new threat from the east? What is with you people!? Good God, some country says "We're doing whats best for us." and suddenly they're a threat. Maybe, just maybe, they hate having missiles pointed at them. Maybe, just maybe, they see US "missile defence" as being aimed at them, and THEY see YOU as a threat. You're going to get us all killed with your stupid assessments of "threats" from every corner of the globe. Get off your high moral horse and join the rest of the world at the UN again. It'll help us all immensely, really.
Jack, Vancouver, Canada
Its a good sign. Look what the imbalance of world power has done. Now the only super power in the world needs to be challenged as it is grossly misusing its status.
Another equation would be India and China holding hands together which seems unlikely as China has always been autocratic and still hell bent on fighting India over Arunachal Pradesh territory dispute!
EU if united could challenge US, economically.
However politically the ill designs of USA needs to be challenged. Since there seems no other force in the world to challenge the injustices meted out by America, this anger and frustration is breeding terrorism in the world which is in fact indirectly spawned by none other than USA itself. The obsence levels of consumption and despite being the richest nation not owning up ecological responsibilities is another of USA's curse on the world. Everybody is witnessing the phenomenon of Global Warming occuring so rapidly ! Thanks America for giving us war, terror, injustice!
Shashi, Delhi, India
I think the west should work with Russia in constructing star wars...I also think we had a lotta balls going into Iraq without thinking the thing through.. Afganistan yes, Iraq no. i can see Russias point about not wanting to be pushed around. It is a young democracy (by our standards) lets work with them and see what happens, by taking a more pragmatic view of evolving circumstances.........:0)
A.A. Mcnay, Eagle Grove, IA USA
HOW WORRIED SHOULD THE WEST BE? Be careful! President Putin is very intelligent and not the kind of person who you want to mess with in a high stakes card game. On the issue of a missile defense system in Europe, I side with President Putin. There's no reason to have a radar system, or missile defense system, that covers Russia. The United States has enormus problems at home, i.e., crime, drugs, gangs. Our relationship with the entire world is in shambles. How would we feel, or react, if Russia decided to place missiles near U.S. terrority?
Mr. R. D. Moore, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Putin is probably the best leader any country has today. He believes in serving the people who elected him, and not kowtowing to the would be-Emperor/Dictator in the White house, and his minions both in the USA and elsewhere.
This is an unpopular view in the west. Putin is expected to behave like Maliki and Kharzai, but he won't. This is never openly said, but the tone of the above article is a giveaway.
I doubt whether the Times would be brave enough to publish an alternate view.
Ernie de Silva, Reading, Berkshire.
Russia's rise to power.....
Can't wait and about time too!!!
Some balance against the US is what the world needs.
Sam, London,
I fear being pre-occupied with the Middle East has left us vulnerable to the military and economic strides that China and Russia have made. In the end China and Russia will probably allign together. But what we got going is that ex-Soviet states will align with the west and I believe the rest of the world, or the free world will follow suit and align with the West......a post "Cold War" conflict I believe is on the rise. We need to resurrect Regan!
Corey, Kaiserslautern, Germany
from my standpoint, it seems that after the soviet union fell we tried to do what the league of nations did to germany after world war I; that is, it seems we tried to let the new russia drown.
If that is so, then we are reaping what we did NOT sow in the period after the fall of the soviet union. we are seeing the rise of post cold war russian nationalism. you see after communism fell, we saw the seizure of soviet assets by the corrupt officials and future mafioso of russia. and we stood by and let it happen. we should have known that it would eventually lead to a backlash against the West for trusting that the bringing of democracy would result in peace and prosperity. I am very cynical about the idea that opening of a new democracy to the ruthlessness of the market economy would result in benefit to russia as a state. I believe that Reagan knew that Russia would be torn apart. frankly i believe that is what we hoped for; the destruction of our former nemisis. this is my belief.
dr mitchel w. eisenstein, stony brook, New York, USA
It is ironic that the most effective weapon that the East (Read China & Russia) could use against the West (Read Europe, Canada & America) is the one that has been until recently suppressed by their governments. Capitalism. It is even more ironic that the West in it's greed to access those markets is essentially paying for the re strengthening of the very powers which seem to be bent on bringing the West down. We have been naive to think that those in the East ever gave up their animosity towards us. They will simply wage their war against our "democratic" values adapting their economic and governmental systems. We have been even more naive in the West to think that we have taught them a lesson and they will learn from it. If anything, they are more embittered, more determined to use the principals that "beat" them to undermine our own stability.
The fear is that it works and the West adopts their authoritarian capitalist model they are now creating.
It is about power, not ideals.
Adam King, Vancouver, BC
Do you hold china off by shutting down Walmart? Or feed them money by having Walmart in every city .. China , Russia and Iran want to equal the West and Britons power. The USA needs a president who would stand up to their growth of Fascism.
""What is in process is a new world order, or even disorder, coming into being, with regional powers asserting themselves in the aftermath of the debacle in Iraq.”
james, San Diego , US of A San Diego
The Russian Ambassador summed it all up for me. How can America expect Russia to believe they are allies when American treats Russia differently from Europe? If you are building a defense from missiles why would you not want to defend your allies the Russians too? Oh, maybe because America sees Russia as the threat, proving Russia's point.
Many of the other issues are trivial and again smack of 'one rule for us, another rule for them', which again suggests Russia has a right to act independently when it isn't treated as 'one of the gang.
Andy, Seattle, USA
Russia is a threaty and needs to be treated as such. We need to rebuild our military and need to urgently get us off dependence on Russian oil and gas and the same from middle east oil and gas. Nuclear and renewables and a massive campaign of energy efficiency.
neil murphy, cromer,
I have lived insides the former Soviet Union for 13 years, including one year in Moscow and several in the interior of Russia. I fully understand the mentality of the Russian people and their frustration with America and Europe. I also fully agree with most of the measures taken by President Putin. He understands Russia far better then anyone in the USA or Europe.
The failure of the USA to embrace and understand the Russian Bear will be marked as the greatest failure of the last 2 centuries and if this reality is not understood and corrected very soon the world will collapse into a war started by Muslims, specifically Iran.
Sides are being drawn up as we all speculate on what to do about what is perceived as "extremism" in Islam. It is Islam that is the problem and there are a minimum of 100 million who believe in killing anyone.
If the USA and Russia were true allies, partners and brothers who could stand to attack that alliance?
Geoffrey B Slater, Claremont, USA
Very well writen document, I especially liked the phrase "democracy and freedom are luxuries when you have to worry about surviving amid rampant corruption, crime and injustice.”
Adrian, Bucharest, Romania
We had a chance to pursue real peace with the East....but instead we invaded Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, and now are threatening Iran - all countries on Moscow's doorstep - all once aligned with the Soviet Union. What can you say? Hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians have died in places like Serbia, Fallujah, Kabul...many of them once looked to the Soviet Union as a provider.
Peace is far away now.
Ryan Ferris, Bellingham, WA
Regardless of all this huff and puff posturing throughout the world against the United States and whatever is left of our allies, the fact still remains that these countries are dependent on the good old American dollar. China and India now have a vast majority of American manufacturing and technical support jobs. Russia has large sums of American dollars invested in their economy. The countries that are threatening us both militarily and economicly should sit back and ponder what they would do if we decide to pull back the almighty dollar. Isn't it always about the money? By the way, India could destroy the United States in a matter of weeks. Seeing how all our computer technical support is over there all they would have to do is give the wrong answers whenever we call. At times I think they they are already deliberately doing this.
Tom, Chicago, IL
America is the superpower. but why going around and commanding other country? american should live with respected. By now the world have seen that america isn't live up to it name. freedom. american should treat the other with respect. as how american want to be respect as a world superpower.
yeuan, seattle, washington
It seems a lot of people like an anti-American Russia that throws its weight around a little on the theory that they hate G. Bush, Putin hates G. Bush, therefore Putin is our friend. "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" is a lousy way to pick your friends. I think those who are doing this are making a mistake - once George Bush is gone (and even if America was taken down a notch as many seem to crave) an autocratic Russia that bullies its neighbors and suppresses democracy at home does NOT contribute to world peace - this is the clear lesson of history.
Jack Denver, Phila, PA, USA
They are NOT eager, Mick. There's been a lot of worry about this on the continent, only the British newspapers were a tad slow about reporting it. This has been going on for quite some time now.
starling, Lancaster,
Here goes Bush creating yet another mess. There is no reason to put these anti-missiles in Poland and other places because there is his excuse is to ward off a missile attack from Iran or North Korea. Ya right, I will believe that when I start to believe the Earth revolves around the moon. Iran and North Korea are in no position to be attacking with nuclear missiles and besides I don't think they are in quarrel with that part of the world anyways.
Every time Bush claims he is making security, disasters follows thereafter.
Wacer, Northeast, USA Montana
The Russians are already fighting a proxy war against the US in Iraq - they are arming Syria and Iran. They started the 'New Cold War', not us. It is up us to to finish it - to face them off, which is what this ia about.
bozTP, London,
In the article, I have read 'Last week Putin said that Russia would veto any UN resolution for Kosovan independence'. On TV, I heard Putin said that Russia would agree if the UN declares the principle of peoples' right for independence higher than one of borders stability, but only if UN declares that for all peoples, not Kosovans only. Did not he seem to have reason? Should not we have unified rules for all countries?
Mikhail Kononov, St. Petersburg, Russia
In years to come we must try to stay on a even kil. We must not try to rule the world. China and Russia are powers that we must get along with to survive 10 years.
Mike Lawhon Sr, Lilesville, U.S. N.C.
I don't see an axis developing between Russia and China, but between Russia and no one. The danger is one of isolationism, national pride and paranoia creating a superpower distraction, while the serious haters of humanity evolve their agenda through Islamist regimes. The US administration ought to think twice before destabilizing Europe in a speculative project like this one. Shield? Iran? Phooey! And Putin knows it, too.
Tony Gold, Bangkok, Thailand
Wow! Putin must have been overawed by Tony Blair. Ha!
Is this suppose to be a joke?
nike, Auckland,
Well - how about this scenario? The US, Canada and Mexico align themselves to become independent of Mideast and Russian oil (I've done my homework, the oil is sufficient). The US stops sending jobs to India and buying slave labor goods from China. Let's see how powerful these countries really are. A collapse of the entire east with nuclear armed crazies from the Mideast being much more of a threat then the US has ever been.
Don't underestimate our intelligence or system.
Rick, Dallas, TX
Sometimes you wonder if those nations so eager to accommodate the American missile systems being based on their territory have worked out the logic of their actions.
If it all goes pear shaped and enemy missiles are fired at the Usa and the American systems work the reality is that those nuclear missiles will be exploded in the air over their heads.
Any national leadership that agrees to this madness needs to be removed from power by their citizens.Let the Americans base their systems on their own coastlines.
mick, glasgow,
Every nation has a right to protect its interest i.e. economically, politically and militarily. So is the case with President Putin. No nation in the world question Bush if he says or does something that is not acceptable to a vast majority of the world but still they behave like dumb dogs. I believe there will be a new world order divided on the basis of conflicts, idealogy. West in particular will be facing tough time in terms of energy supplies. Russia will continue to support India, Iran, China and other nations in building nuclear power stations. America has lost its image after attacks on Iraq and this will definitely benefit Russians in every aspect of their future agenda.
squad, bombay, india
Note the arrangement of the biscuits at the Embassy. It clearly shows how devilishly scheming and dangerous those Russians are. We should restore the Soviet Union. Judging by the histerics of this club of idiots, it was much safer than Russia today.
Pavel, Rostov, Russia
Firstly, making predictions as far as ten years is foolish. Both US and Russia will have newly elected administrations. Secondly Russia has a right to feel threatened be the West, trying to build a buffer zone or keep one that has fellen apart intact does offer security. Looking at the past Russia was invaded by France (Napoleonic Wars) and by Germany (WW2). The giant country has been loosing small pieces which has been encouraged by the West. Finally China will be thee superpower in the future.
M, Winnipeg, Canada
Country like India will be in Catch-22 situation. US is known for exploiting all its friends for its own interest like a ruthless business man or trader. Russia will play hard bargain, no support in energy and defence, if you are not in my team. The world will divide between two groups - but all will depend upon how these groups can become self sustaining economic entity.
WTO nengotaition will shoud the directions in coming days. Indian political leadership is in fix.
Vijay Sardana, Delhi, India
Russia is unpredictable but also destroys like a blitzkrieg....napoleon...hitler are the biggest examples.....so its time for bush cheney croonies end......good luck and hope Russian growl brings some sense to this emerging imperialist order...
Lets wage war, Amsterdam, Netherlands
United States power (economic and military in some degree)and influence is crumbling before our eyes and very few can see OIL as the reason. Our "enemies" are washed with oil which we buy and they use the money to weaken America. It is time for Americans to wake up and call on their elective officials to put on a project that will free us of oil addiction not in 30 years but soon as if our lives depend on it-which is really the case.
LOUIE, GILBERT, ARIZONA
The British lost the empire, they're in the process of losing their colonial imprints in APAC, and most of all they are upset to see Russia regroup itself and exit the self-destruction mode. In their pre-poodle case you could talk to them, now they can't properly defent their own citizen against deportation. Maybe it's time for the queen to move to Canada - these guys managed to sue US DHS on unlawful detention and deportation of Canadian citized on Muslim origin.
Sergei, Moscow, Russia
Russia is young, wealthy and strong???? Dont think so.
Not sure what youve been reading.
I wouldn't live in Russia for all the tea in china!
Same oppression under a new guise.
Caleb, London,
Russian leadership is merely trying to reassert its country's place in the global dynamic. With the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia's place as one of two global superpowers was eliminated and the West vs. East paradigm shifted dramatically. As a US citizen, I can see why Russia would want to reassert its power; the world has been at the whim of the US since the early 90's, oftentimes to tragic outcomes. Now, as American standing in the world fades with what will be 8 years of misguided and destructive leadership, there will become once again a global power vacuum (much like there was after the 2nd world war), and Russia (and China) will seek to step in. I have no fear of a second Cold War; US global power will simply continue to decline as Eastern powers gain stronger global footing, as long as American leadership ceases to attempt to threaten the east with things like this missile defense system. Only brazen, rash, and stupid leadership would dare risk confrontation. Oh, yeah..
TJ, Los Angeles, California, USA
Russia is young, wealthy and strong. Are people in the States jealous?
lois m wiedmer, sidney , USA Montana
There is little chance that any positive action can be realized so long as Bush is in ofice.
He has turned people all over the world against the United States. He doesn't know how to negotiate and every time he opens his mouth he makes matters worse.
The missile defense he favors is'nt needed near as badly as all the other threats we face--shipments coming in to the U S with only ! % being inspected, taking care of
crisis here at home such as Katrina- the financial drain of the war in Iraq and on and on.
jerry cole, moran , wyoming
Looks like Russia is shooting itself in the foot once again. Bullying its former Soviet territories and giving nuclear materials to Iran. But I'll give Russia its due on Kosovo since its ancient Serbian territory.
Stacey Taylor, Susanville,
A new Cold War? You wish!
We, Russians, will sell, and you, the West, will buy - at our prices.
We have nothing to do with Chinese. Except for selling them some outdated weaponry and occasionally staging some theatrical military exercises here and there.
Ivan , Moscow City, Mother Russia
"Russia is also helping Burma, Bulgaria, China and India build nuclear plants."
It makes no sense to list Bulgaria in there, as it has had a nuclear power plant for many decades from the time it was aligned with the USSR. Unlike the other countries listed, there are no nuclear proliferation issues that the West is concerned with in the case of Bulgaria.
BDT, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Yes - well - with Boeing selling 22 787s into Russia and
the US military wanting to get on a better footing with China
our buddy from Titusville has a little 'splainin to do.
John Anderson, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
A very well written document. Russia is still hurting from it's loss of respect and power in the global community. It's flirtation with China may come back and bite the Bear as China wants to dominate the world. We can look at various theories. One I like to debate is what would happen if a type of civil war broke out in Russia. I use the term "type" as the power of the post USSR crime gangs make the Mafia look like children. Imagine a crime gang so powerfull that it wants to take over a country and it's nuclear arsenal. It's a thought, but some academics tell me that the biggest crime gang in Russia is the Party run by Putin. All in all, life seems to be quite interesting in most parts of the globe.
Mike. Sydney Australia
Michael Squires, Sydney, Australia
Within 5 years, US will have to deal with a powerful united front - China, Russia & India; add to the fact that nations that are not too keen about the way US conducts itself will be eager to join this front ; think Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Japan,France, and the countries in Middle East to name a few. Little drops of water make a mighty ocean indeed ! The world order is changing and will come a full circle.
History is a harsh reminder that the first nuclear device that doomed mankind was detonated by US on Japanese soil; for what was an act of retaliation - for the Pearl harbor misadventure; but at what price?? It was not Russia, China, India, Iran or N.Korea that committed this crime, but US. How about every nation, including the G8 destroy ALL nuclear missiles, weapons etc. and make this world a Nuclear Weapon-Free Earth. LET US TAKE THE LEAD AND BE PROUD TO SET AN EXAMPLE - NOT BE A BULLY
Well, do I already hear 'NO' from some countries? No prizes for guessing though.
John, Detroit, USA/MI
What's good for the goose is good for the gander. We would not tolerate Russian dictations to us about anything. Would we, for example, allow Russia to install a 'missle defense system' in Cuba today? I think not.
lenny, front royal, va., u.s.a.
The only thing the "West" has to fear is another illegal, immoral, unnecessary
pre-emptive war by the Cheney/Bush cabal. Our foreign policy for the past six years has been lackluster at best, and borderline insane at worst.
Rowland , Orleans, MA
I don't think Russia will be completely encircled by NATO.
Russia, China and other Middle Eastern countries will become allies.
Ruslan , Osh, Kyrgyzstan
In ten years or less Russia and the United States will be on a Cold war footing and Russia will be aligned with China. It will be hard on China because I wants the best of both Worlds; economic power and a deep dislike of the West. In the end the military lure will be too strong for China to resist especially once it has attained its stride as a dominate economic power.
GSNO, Titusville, USA
The real joke is upon the American politicians. They actually thought other world leaders would accept their tricks and cheap talk just because they got away with fooling their own voters. When they begin to believe their own propaganda we're all in trouble, except wise leaders like Putin and Hu Jin Tao. They are the wisest of all present world leaders and its shameful to witness American attempts to trick them.
Spectrum, Fargo, North Dakota, USA
How worried should the West be?
I think a lot, because while some in the West see Russia as an enemy, some see it as a friend.
james, new york, ny
It would appear that Bush goes out of his way with continual warmongering. It is time the USA had a balancing superpower.
john phillips, Kelowna, Canada, BC