Michael Binyon: Analysis
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The general election in Turkey is arguably the most important since the death of Kemal Atatürk, the founder of today’s secular republic. At stake is far more than the row over whether an Islamist can be elected president. The election will determine the nature of Turkish democracy, the identity of the Turkish state and whether a restless younger generation is prepared to defy the threats of a conservative military Establishment to launch the fifth coup since 1960.
The implications go far beyond the plains of Anatolia or the teeming bazaars of Istanbul. This election is being perceived across the Muslim world as a test case for political Islam. If, as expected, the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party wins a landslide, will the powerful Turkish army accept the result? Or will fears that the vote will give AKP a mandate to move beyond its cautious Islamism prompt military intervention to reassert the army’s role as the guardian of the Atatürk legacy and the final arbiter of a democracy for which most generals believe Turks are not yet ready?
If the army accepts the return of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister, this marks a milestone in the fractious relations between the generals and civilian politicians; it also vindicates the caution and concessions he has made to allay suspicions that he is trying to undermine secularism by stealth. This will help him to resist the clamour to abolish the ban on headscarves in public and to build more Islamic schools. Such an outcome would reassure other wary Middle Eastern governments that Islamists can be trusted to take part in democratic elections.
If the army refuses to accept the result, as in Algeria, Islamists across the Muslim world will conclude that they will never be accepted in a Western-style democracy. That would encourage radicals to reject any participation in parliamentary politics, on the ground that the cards are stacked against them, fuelling extremism and leading to confrontations betweeen secular politicians and Islamists around the world.
Little wonder, then, that the Arab world is watching what happens in Turkey with unusual interest.
Iraqis are also watching closely. Mr Erdogan has been resisting army pressure to intervene in Kurdistan on the pretext that PKK fighters are using northern Iraq as a haven. The army, where nationalism has as strong a grip as secularism, fears that de facto independence for Iraq’s Kurds will encourage Turkey’s restless Kurds and threaten the unity and stability of Turkey itself.
Turkish intervention would be catastrophic for hopes in America and Europe of stabilising Iraq. It would aggravate the poor relations of both with Ankara, caused by Turkish refusal to back the US invasion of Iraq and by the determination of some European Union leaders not to allow Turkey full membership of the EU.
The election will strongly influence the accession talks. Despite broad European sympathy for the army’s secular stance, many EU leaders are worried by its nationalist, interventionist tone. This is especially true on Cyprus. Mr Erdogan has shown some flexibility over the island, but the army is strongly opposed to any concessions. If the Prime Minister is defeated or weakened, he will be unable to go farther on Cyprus. That would throw up an immediate roadblock to the accession talks.
Many outsiders have seen the election as a contest between Islamists and secularists. It is not so clear cut. AKP has demonstrated economic competence and clear commitments to reform and has won support from nonIslamists and pro-Europeans. The army, Turkey’s most respected institution, would stand to lose from AKP’s wish to cut back farther its political influence. It has attracted support from many angered by Nato and EU pressures. This election will show whether Turkey can go forward with both reforming Islam or with nationalist secularism, or whether compromise between forces shaping a country strategically placed between the West and the Muslim world is impossible.
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Islam is, as a matter of faith, profoundly non-democratic.
Given popular choice, every fundamentalist Islamic society will always reject secular government.
Allah allows no other choice.
There is nothing for the faithful to debate.
Turkish democracy delivers its own death warrant.
Absent Islamic reformation, only the Turkish army can prevent a Turkish theocracy.
Islamic reformation is the religious work of centuries, but Islamic fundamentalism's march through the remnants of Ataturk's secular institutions may be the democratic work of a few more elections.
Michael Grable, SILVER SPRING, USA/Maryland
Isn't it surprising how the defenders of an atavistic totalitarian "Big Chief" Kemalism lay claim to being "modern," literate and educated? Europe has consigned such primitive tribal totems to the dustbin of history.
SC, London, United Kingdom
Why on earth EU would accept a country as a Political Islamic State while many countires in EU (Germany, France) can not stand the traditional Muslim people who work and live in their countries now. AK party seems to be too naive to understand this point, is hopeful for entry and presents itself as a progressive party. This is also the same party which tried to introduce adultary as a criminal act!! AKP does not seem to understand the Machiavellianism of EU.
Turkey was formed as a secular state and its only place in the modern world is as a secular one. Ataturk saw the contradictions between Islam and modernity and opted for the modernity. Unfortunately half of the Turkish nation have not been wise enough (dare I say educated enough) yet to understand this point and how irrelevant the democracy is when it comes to such an important crossroads. No one wants the intervention of the army but for Turkey this is a necessary evil. The test is for AKP to prove how secular it is.
Betul Nelson, Kent, UK
The so called Nice West with its hypocricital value system is defeated by its own values
Human Rights is a western value (according to West), look athe secret jails run by West for torture. Plus infinite amount of jails run by their proxy governments in the Muslim world.
Democracy is a western value (according to West) yet when Islamists are elcted in Algeria, Palestine, they are rejected and the people are deprived of their basic human right to elect what they want. The same is true in Egypt and other Islamic countries
Freedom of Speech is a western value, yet who can use this freedom today to criticize west's war on the so called terror. Can anybody today stand up and criticize West without himself/herself maligned as a terrorist?
Shame on West!
Mathew Tom, Glasgow,
In my opinion this parliment seems more democratic then the previous one. Because we can hear different kind of voice. For example the Kurds parliamentarian will take the place in Ankara. I don't know how people support to AKP with 46,5% rate. But i don't doubt that it is AKP's success. As a result i hope we will live in more democratic and respectful country in next five year.
Sevgi Bala, İstanbul, Turkey
With its historic election victory, Erdogan has got his confidence vote. Certainly it helped him to move the party to a more centre right by eliminating radical Islamists and even transferring votes from CHP. Those last moves will also gain him support from the secular guards, the Army. Thanks to a weak opposition from Baykal and his never-liked leadership, the centre left ended up with a big defeat. I don't think there is a soul search here but a revival of Ottoman philosophy. A more decentralized approach in administration and a closeness to Islamic school.
Hasan Kaplan, Manchester, England UK
Seek the truth, even within the democracy of political changes. Ask yourself to respect all rights of others and trust in yourself that to obey the laws of humanity given to us through God's own son. Belief is the start of wisdom which leads to understanding and turns into a much better world. Knock on the doors of your own heart that gives justice the power not to discriminate against human beings not mater what words are formed from. The intrupation of words stands in between each of usto use to show kindness and peace throughout life. USA is just another country under the leadership of one and it's people are his to ignor thier own cries of help.
James C. Rugur sr, Hornell, NY
People of Turkey has taken a decision to test limits of Demokratic seculiar system.Next five years are going to show us how robust is Turkish democracy . I hope this experiment evolve our political system into more maturity and improve quality of life . Other wise shall be condemned to live in kaotic third World country .
Huseyin Kavrak, Shanghai, China
Government which reflects "the will of the people" does NOT require democracy nor is such a situation necessarily encouraged by democracy.
--Democracy is not needed in countries with strong held beliefs which are common to an overwhelming majority. Democracy itself says tiny minorities should be ignored. In such nations Democracy simply encourages strife over tiny issues. In nations without a dominate national culture, Democracy is one solution. Even in the US Democracy is only a measuring stick of what minority rules can be accepted by opposing minorities and the passive majority. Most people don't vote. If they did the US would be chaos like Italy.
--The business-oriented western world believes that mutual understanding can be achieved by making all governments similar in mechanics (democratic& bureaucratic). Cultural tolerance is also promoted for business reasons. At the level of real politics this is their sole concern - lubrication of trade.
well-duh, Somwhere, USA
Totally upto the Turkish Masses what they want from the election it should not be like Palestenian Elections as when Hamas won on account of having great support from the public but they were forced to leave the Government. The Turkish, whatever they decide, should have their own in this context whether it's Army or the Islamists, both of them should respect the result.
Muhammad Kashif Munir, Gujranwala, Pakistan
Turkey needs to follow Ataturk and his reforms. The illeteral Turkish public will realize that soon,I hope it will not be too late.
Tayfun, nyc, usa
Tsk, tsk, so typical. You always thought of those who support AKP as illiterate peasants.
Petunjuk, Jakarta, Indonesia
Like or not, ...THE PEOPLE elected this government, we should respect the results.
USA said DEMOCRACY is a way to prosperity, but when palestinians voted for changed, USA a& EUROPE, rejected!, What is democracy anyway?
The army must respect the results of this election, not to be involved into politics
Good luck people of TURKEY!
(I am agnostic)
CKPERRUCHO, Toronto, Canada
You can see why AKP won the elections from the above (Tayfun's) comment. The problem with elitist "republican"s is that their arrogance towards their own people. AKP is neither Islamic nor a threat to the republic, they just know how to play the democracy game. One cannot establish Islamism in Turkey, even 10% of AKP's 15 million voters don't want this.
Turkey wants civility, development, wealth and democracy, not a dead general's ghost teaching us how to live. (Note: I'm not an AKP voter.)
Emre Sahin, Ankara, Turkey
I believe the article meant to say "ban on headscarves in public [schools]," not in public, as that is blatantly and obviously false. Â
Virginia T, Northfield, MN
A pro- Islamist Turkey with its 70-million-and-growing population is the last thing we need in EU.
It will no doubt cause major tensions and ultimately lead to breakdown.
We can only hope that the Army will follow Ataturk's wisdom again and intervene again.
Ali Ahmed, London, UK
Turkey needs to follow Ataturk and his reforms. The illeteral Turkish public will realize that soon,I hope it will not be too late.
Tayfun, nyc, usa