The general election in Turkey is arguably the most important since the death of Kemal Atatürk, the founder of today’s secular republic. At stake is far more than the row over whether an Islamist can be elected president. The election will determine the nature of Turkish democracy, the identity of the Turkish state and whether a restless younger generation is prepared to defy the threats of a conservative military Establishment to launch the fifth coup since 1960.

The implications go far beyond the plains of Anatolia or the teeming bazaars of Istanbul. This election is being perceived across the Muslim world as a test case for political Islam. If, as expected, the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party wins a landslide, will the powerful Turkish army accept the result? Or will fears that the vote will give AKP a mandate to move beyond its cautious Islamism prompt military intervention to reassert the army’s role as the guardian of the Atatürk legacy and the final arbiter of a democracy for which most generals believe Turks are not yet ready?

If the army accepts the return of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister, this marks a milestone in the fractious relations between the generals and civilian politicians; it also vindicates the caution and concessions he has made to allay suspicions that he is trying to undermine secularism by stealth. This will help him to resist the clamour to abolish the ban on headscarves in public and to build more Islamic schools. Such an outcome would reassure other wary Middle Eastern governments that Islamists can be trusted to take part in democratic elections.

If the army refuses to accept the result, as in Algeria, Islamists across the Muslim world will conclude that they will never be accepted in a Western-style democracy. That would encourage radicals to reject any participation in parliamentary politics, on the ground that the cards are stacked against them, fuelling extremism and leading to confrontations betweeen secular politicians and Islamists around the world.

Little wonder, then, that the Arab world is watching what happens in Turkey with unusual interest.

Iraqis are also watching closely. Mr Erdogan has been resisting army pressure to intervene in Kurdistan on the pretext that PKK fighters are using northern Iraq as a haven. The army, where nationalism has as strong a grip as secularism, fears that de facto independence for Iraq’s Kurds will encourage Turkey’s restless Kurds and threaten the unity and stability of Turkey itself.

Turkish intervention would be catastrophic for hopes in America and Europe of stabilising Iraq. It would aggravate the poor relations of both with Ankara, caused by Turkish refusal to back the US invasion of Iraq and by the determination of some European Union leaders not to allow Turkey full membership of the EU.

The election will strongly influence the accession talks. Despite broad European sympathy for the army’s secular stance, many EU leaders are worried by its nationalist, interventionist tone. This is especially true on Cyprus. Mr Erdogan has shown some flexibility over the island, but the army is strongly opposed to any concessions. If the Prime Minister is defeated or weakened, he will be unable to go farther on Cyprus. That would throw up an immediate roadblock to the accession talks.

Many outsiders have seen the election as a contest between Islamists and secularists. It is not so clear cut. AKP has demonstrated economic competence and clear commitments to reform and has won support from nonIslamists and pro-Europeans. The army, Turkey’s most respected institution, would stand to lose from AKP’s wish to cut back farther its political influence. It has attracted support from many angered by Nato and EU pressures. This election will show whether Turkey can go forward with both reforming Islam or with nationalist secularism, or whether compromise between forces shaping a country strategically placed between the West and the Muslim world is impossible.

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